Snowstorm this Weekend to Pack a Punch

Another weekend, another storm to track. Nearly everyone has had enough snow but mother nature does not care.  The record setting snow blitz is set to continue. Two lanes streets have been reduced to one, rooves are collapsing, cities and towns have blown through snow removal budgets and there is no where to put the snow.   I poke fun at people who remember the Blizzard of 78 and all in all that was a worse singular storm than any of the 3 we've endured these past few weeks.  January 2011 brought storm after storm and similarly high snow banks/roof collapses. That was over a 6 week stretch however, not 3.
Jan 9-13, 2011 storm (NESIS)
The Jan 11 storm highlighted that stretch.  The blizzard 3 weeks ago remains the foundation for our problems today.
Jan 25-28, 2015 storm (NESIS)
I said at the time it was the most fun I've had covering a storm. Well one week later, after cold temperatures allowed minimal melting, we got this.
Feb 2, 2015 storm (NESIS)
This storm actually ranked higher on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIScheck it out) due to a greater population affected.  This storm delayed the Patriots parade and generally crippled the MBTA. Still cold, a 3rd storm struck Sunday/Monday.  This provided a KO to the T and started to compromise the structure of buildings.

As I write this we are missing a major storm that will blow up in the Atlantic.  We probably won't get so lucky a second time
North America surface analysis 4 pm (WPC)

Our next storm is still in the Arctic Circle.  From the NAM 500 mb (~halfway up atmosphere)
18z NAM 500 MB VORT (NCEP)

The energy is north of Manitoba.  On the surface chart above you can see a weak surface low in NW Manitoba.  These means the storm source is truly polar in origin. Our air mass tomorrow will be bitter enough.  Highs will be in the teens while lows flirt with 0.

wind chill advisory is in effect tonight thru tomorrow AM.  It will feel -15 to -20 below. There is also enough confidence for winter storm and blizzard watches!
NWS hazards
Blizzard in lime green, winter storm in blue. Worcester county and N RI are also under this but the active Wind Chill Advisory supersedes it on the colored map.  A blizzard watch also is up for the Cape. See here.

So by Saturday AM the storm is in the Great Lakes
WPC surface forecast Sat 7 am

At the upper levels we are here
18Z NAM 500 mb fort 7 am Sat (NCEP)
The storm really deepens overnight Sat into Sunday. Sat 7 pm
WPC surface forecast 7 PM Sat 
To Sun AM
WPC surface forecast Sun 7 am
For is in Central MA this is a better solution, but still not great. This is a lashing for Maine and coastal MA, NH. Snow begins Saturday around noon. It may let up for a time Saturday evening after an initial 3-6 in Worcester County. It rages at the coast as winds by Sun AM are approaching 70 mph (likely higher at times).  

My guess is Boston sees 12-16, Worcester 8-12, Providence 5-9.  The wind will cause blowing and drifting snow.  No map yet, but I'll show you the NWS when they release it.  

Check for an update tomorrow PM.

-Zack Green


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