Long Duration Snow Event Set to Begin
Here we go again! Another snow storm is on tap for Southern New England. Winter 2014-15 started slow, but it has more than made up for its modest beginning and we are starting to enter legendary territory. More snow threats are on my radar besides this storm and perhaps more impressive is an arctic blast not seen in these parts in years. But first lets take a look at this storm.
A winter storm warning (pink) is in effect until Monday night. It is snowing lightly right now as a disturbance moves through the region.
At the surface the pattern is active
By tomorrow AM that boundary across Northern New England will sag south and set up around Long Island as Arctic High Pressure builds southeast.
At the upper levels we see energy streaming across the Upper Plains
The initial snow that develops overnight and tomorrow AM is a result of warm moist air overrunning the arctic front . Expect 2-4 inches by 7-8 AM before a bit of a lull sets in. I wouldn't rule out 4-8 in Northeast MA/Southern NH by the morning.
The snow will be fluffy and it will add up quickly. This is part 1 of the snow (or part 2 if you want to count today). The next part will produce snow Sunday PM into Tuesday AM. A coastal front will set up around I-95. Check out the temperature differences between Central MA/RI and SE MA tomorrow at 8 PM
33 in Brockton, 17 in Worcester. Heavy fluffy snow should set up on both sides of this front. Sunday overnight into Monday will feature periods of snow, at times heavy. So how much total snow are we talking?
A general 14-24 is expected. I believe the North Shore/NE MA will approach 30 in spots, especially Gloucester/Peabody. The Cape may be underdone a bit as I think Barnstable/Sandwich/Bourne will do better than 4-6. Eastern Worcester county is looking closer to 18 than 14. In fact 20 wouldn't be surprising.
|NWS Boston watches/warnings/advisories|
|NWS Northeast Regional Radar|
|WPC Surface Analysis 4 PM EST|
|WPC Surface Forecast 7 am Sunday|
|18z NAM 500 mb vort, heights 7 am Sun (image NCEP)|
|18z NAM 7 am temps (image Weatherbell)|
|18z NAM hi-res 2 m temps 8 PM Sun (image Weatherbell)|
Again I will defer to the National Weather Service. These guys have been spot on so far, if not underdone at times.
|NWS Boston forecast snow accumulations thru Tuesday AM|
Use good judgement. We should all be able to handle driving in snow by now. However the snow banks are going to be ridiculous after this. Thursday PM-Friday is another storm threat. If it hits we probably avoid record cold Friday. If it doesn't temperatures could plummet to -10 to -20 Friday AM. As it stands now that is what we see Saturday AM.