Blackstone Valley Weather Service has returned to the google platform for now. Weather for Southern Worcester County and more by meteorologist Zack Green
A pair of upper level disturbances will led to severe weather in multiple parts of the US today. The most significant threat is for tornadoes in the Great Plains as an upper atmosphere low lifts out of the Rockies. In the Northeast a warm front has lifted just south of New England which has led to periods of rain in Southern New England, snow in Northern New England. As result of such cold air aloft the biggest threat in Philadelphia and surrounding areas is hail. Here is the Storm Prediction Center threat graphic
SPC Day 1 thunderstorm outlook (valid through Tuesday 8 am EST)
Here is the surface analysis as of 8 AM EST
WPC surface analysis 8 AM EST
That stationary boundary is a clear divided of where the warm and cold air is in the lower 48. Anyone in New England right now knows what I mean.
US 2 m temps 10 AM EST (image Weatherbell)
So by 2 PM the warm front will halt its progress north. A wave of low pressure will slide south of New England leading to heavy rain until about 2 PM. The good news for New England is that high pressure will take over and led to seasonable weather through the weekend. All storm will slide south out to sea while temperatures remain around 60. As the afternoon goes in in the Plains more thunderstorms will erupt.
WPC surface forecast 2 PM
Here is the simulated radar for 6 PM EST/5 PM CST. It looks like some super cells will begin to erupt by this time in Oklahoma and Kansas. A strong complex of wind, hail, lightning and rain will move along the cold front through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky at the same time.
14z HRRR simulated radar 6 PM EST (image weatherbell)
This lines up well with the SPC tornado threat area
SPC Day 1 tornado outlook
I'm not sold on Nebraska as it may not get warm enough but it will be close. Central Kansas and West of Oklahoma City are my best bets to chase today. This whole area moves east for tomorrow but the tornado threat will be less than it is today. I'll let this play out and summarize the event tomorrow.
Anyone born between 1980-1995 grew up watching Bill Nye the Science Guy either for fun (guilty) or in science class. Bill had a way of taking something complicated and breaking into simple terms for simple minds to understand. Recently Bill has been one of main faces of the global warming/climate change. This is somewhat odd because Bill has a BS in Mechanical Engineering but its a smart play by the liberals. They know young people know who he is and they know we will listen to his message.
Joe Bastardi on the other hand is the co-chief meteorologist at Weatherbell Analytics. He has a BS in meteorology from Penn State and spent a long time at AccuWeather. Joe is known for some excellent long range forecasts and for being a climate skeptic or denier. I have subscribed to Weatherbell since it opened because Joe and his team look at the weather in a very unique way and I have learned a lot. Joe is a darling of Fox News and the conservative movement against climate change legislation/action. Its also been said you can't spell Bastardi without and I and that criticism is valid. JB has a HUGE EGO. Sometimes Joe thinks he is the only one who can spot a weather pattern 1-2 weeks away and it rubs a lot of people the wrong way. He probably doesn't get the credit he deserves for some of his forecasts because he is a loud mouth like Joey Porter or Terrell Suggs.
Now 6 years ago Joe and Bill went on O'Reilly and butted heads. This is a 6 minute video
Bastardi's point on Venus is pretty stupid but overall I score that a victory for JB. Well that was 6 years ago and Bastardi has been predicting a "triple crown of cooling". Instead we've had the warmest ocean and some of the warmest years on record. I admit when I was in college/just out I thought the whole global warming thing was a scam but that was because the other side was calling every single weather event unprecedented and because of global warming. That was bullshit then and that is bullshit now. But after gaining experience in the environmental field I've moved to the center on this. I'm pro renewable energy and I'd like it sooner rather than later. I want to push for aggressive environmental controls to combat urban flooding, storm surge and other natural disasters.
2) Bill Nye blew up Joe's carbon dioxide graph. Life and land were much different in the past and certainly contributed to the CO2 divergence.
3) Bill doesn't mention anything about JB's claim that the earth will cool AFTER 2016 and the 20 year period from the late 1990's to late 2010's will be nearly flat on the temperature scale.
4) JB does futures/commodities forecasting for gas/oil companies and yes has spoke at conferences for them
What does it mean? I'm not really sure. I'm actually sick of it to be honest. Its probably time to kick some people out of the conversation who only bring negativity. Its time to acknowledge its not just natural changes that are influencing the climate and environment. Its also time for some to acknowledge that natural climate cycles exist and that they also need to be studied. There is so much going on in the world and we are already so divided. The weather doesn't need to be something that divides us. Let's put some differences aside, admit we are wrong (it feels good) and start solving problems.
Dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to an elevated risk of fine fuel fires this evening ad Tuesday. As a result the National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Fire Weather Watch. Although a low will pass through Northern New England tonight bringing accumulating rainfall that will miss the southern portion of the region. Humidity levels will drop as low as 25%. It won't even be that warm tomorrow as max temps are near 60. But some gusty winds and the low moisture content in the atmosphere pose a dangerous combo.
NWS Boston Headlines/Hazards
Although we have seen some rains lately there are still areas of PA, NY, CT, MA and NH that have abnormally dry drought conditions. We have made big strides since September however (image 2)
US Drought Monitor 4-12-16
September
US Drought Monitor 9-29-2015
Fire officials recommend avoiding outdoor burning at all costs. If you must burn apply for a permit. You shouldn't do this anyway but don't just chuck your cigarette out the window. Make sure its out in an ashtray or a cigarette bucket. Yes I know "you shouldn't smoke anyway" but that fact is people do so lets avoid a forest fire.
By the way- opposite problem in Texas. See my post from earlier here
In general the weather is nice throughout the lower 48 on this Monday April 18. The major exception is in Southeastern Texas where a slow moving system has dropped nearly 10" of rain in places. Radar estimates of rainfall are over a foot in places west of Houston
This is what that much rain in a short amount of time will do
Photo via Reed Timmer/twitter
On the ground
Via ABC 7/twitter
Off an overpass
Via CNN/Twitter
Unfortunately there are starting to be reports of fatalities. Floods are the number one killer of Americans in a given year. So what exactly is causing this? At the surface a stationary boundary is situated across Central Texas with a upper low to the west in the Rockies and high pressure in the Eastern US
WPC Surface analysis 2 PM EST
The counter clockwise flow around the low and the clockwise flow around the high are allowing for convergence in Southeast Texas. This is better shown at the mid levels of the atmosphere
12z NAM 500 mb vort 8 am
The upper low in the Atlantic is not moving and neither is the high in the Southeast. As result of the upper low in the Rockies which dropped 4 feet of snow this weekend we have an "omega" block because the atmospheric pattern looks like the Greek letter Omega. On Tuesday-Wednesday the jet stream will break this block temporarily (looks like the pattern returns by the end of the week but further east). It will be slow to get out of Texas but the heaviest rain will shift north of Houston and east of Dallas into Arkansas and Louisiana.
As Dr. Marshall Shepherd (U of Georgia, Florida State) described on twitter part of the problem with these heavy rain events is the amount of blacktop pavement that this water is able to just run down. Combine it with outdated storm drain designs and some added warmth to the atmosphere and we have flash flooding problems. On the other hand global warming isn't responsible for the omega block. The same people who claim that also claimed our warm March was global warming. Well in March there was very little blocking and a fast jet across the US. As usual the truth is in the middle but very few people sit in the middle anymore.
It's never too early to look at the weekend forecast. The northeast is looking at a warm up for the long weekend* (Massachusetts and Maine). Lets start Friday night
Weekend Outlook
A ridge will build in the east as high pressure in Canada influences our weather. It is dry all weekend. Winds will be out of the North Friday evening so temperatures will start in the 40s and drop into the 30s. On Saturday the high pressure in Southern Ontario/Quebec begins to slide offshore so there will be a wind shift. Here is the surface chart Saturday 8 AM
WPC Saturday AM surface forecast
If this moves offshore fast enough temperatures will climb into the 60s away from the coast Saturday afternoon. The ocean is still mighty cold so the Cape and Eastern MA are brutal. Here is one model for Saturday PM max temperatures
12z GFS 2 m max temps Saturday PM (image Weatherbell)
You can see how close the 60s are. I'm leaning towards a quicker exit of the cold front so outside of 95 temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s. By Sunday the wind direction shifts again and temperatures easily soar into the 60s/near 70. Skies remain clear. Golf, cookouts, hiking etc is all prime on Sunday. Again the coast and the Cape/Islands remain much cooler than surrounding areas. This is the spring time curse for these areas.
Marathon Monday is warm. This stinks for the runners but it is great for everyone going to Fenway to watch the starting pitcher give up 5+ runs and for everyone lining up from Hopkington to Boston.
12z GFS 2 m max temps Monday PM (Image Weatherbell)
Enjoy the weekend. April is notorious for blown forecasts due to back door cold fronts so I'll keep an eye on it.
(Source)- The leading minds in meteorology say weather forecasts aren’t reliable more than seven to 10 days out. Yet AccuWeather, is — more than ever — defying what science says is the limit of useful weather forecasting.
In recent days, AccuWeather added forecasts extending 90 days into the future on its website, doubling the amount of time into the future for which the State College, Pa.-based company provides predictions.
But valuable forecasts so far into the future simply aren’t possible, many scientists with expertise in weather prediction say. I asked three leading meteorologists, who hold doctoral degrees, what the limit of reliable weather forecasts are and they all responded with essentially the same answer — 7-10 days.
A lot of people in the weather world are crushing AccuWeather today. All of the employees seem to be toeing the company line because no one has complained publicly but I have to imagine they aren't thrilled with this either. Meteorology forecasting is capped around 2 weeks because of the Butterfly Effect/Chaos Theory. At two weeks the differences from the start of any weather model are so great its useless. They use to tell us in meteorology school that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa it could send a Hurricane up the east coast. However if that butterfly flies 2 feet higher in the air it could send the Hurricane into Mexico. But whatever if AccuWeather thinks it has figured something out then good for them and we are going to test it. First up Memorial Day
AccuWeather forecast for Boston 5/30/16- Memorial Day
That east wind is a real killer. Its not much better in New York City either
AccuWeather forecast for New York City 5/30/16- Memorial Day
Sometimes the weather does suck on Memorial Day so maybe. It looks like they are forecasting a surface low pressure wave and a cold front along the east coast. Its not impossible it happened in 2003. So more importantly is 4th of July, 84 days away.
Boston then New York
AccuWeather 4th of July forecast, Boston
AccuWeather 4th of July forecast New York City
This forecast is nice but I see a few issues. The winds shift from West to South overnight. The temperatures do not drop all that much which makes sense with a shift to a S/SW wind. But on July 5 the temperatures are still around 80. If AccuWeather will make a call 85 days out then so will I- temperatures in the 80s for the 4th with a chance of thunderstorms for Boston and New York.
(Source)- The National Weather Service has screamed its weather forecasts in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY but beginning next month, the agency said it plans to lower its voice unless there's an emergency.
Weather updates have traditionally been sent in all capital letters since the National Weather Service used teleprinters, which are typewriters hooked up to telephone lines that only allowed for the use of capital letters. Of course, technology has evolved but some customers have still used the outdated equipment, according to a news release from the National Weather Service.
Effective May 11, the agency plans to transition to mixed-case letters for most forecasts, although forecasters will still have the option to use all upper-case letters when they want to emphasize extremely dangerous conditions, according to the update, making sure you don't take that SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING lightly.
For some reason the all caps really bothered some people. They took it offense to the fact that the National Weather Service forecasts used capital letters thanks to a spectacularly outdated system to distribute warnings. Even though email and the internet made communications instantaneous some companies never updated their technology so the NWS had to keep using all caps. And this isn't surprising. Go over your parents or grandparents house and you will likely see minimal improvements to technology. My grandfather didn't know he had an HD TV for 10 years until he switched from dish to cable. My mom had a Blackberry until last summer.
4/12/16 NWS Boston discussion
I suppose I got used to it because I am a nerd and I read the disco everyday. I won't be sad to see it go BECAUSE WHO LIKES TO BE YELLED AT ALL THE TIME?
