Sheets and Sheets of Rain

A summer Nor'easter is bearing down on southern New England today, one day after dropping over 7 inches of rain in New York City.  Ample moisture is available and the storm is moving more slowly than an elderly person in Wal-Mart.  The ocean temperatures are also very warm, so add these 3 factors in and we are going to see a lot of rainfall today.  The Blackstone Valley is a in a "bulls-eye" of sorts where 2-3 inches of rain could fall.  The consequences of such heavy prolonged rain is rising streams and street flooding of areas that do not drain water fast.  The National Weather Service has issued a flood advisory until 11 am due to very heavy rain.  Just looking at the radar and doing a "nowcast" it wouldn't surprise me if someone finished with over 5 inches of rain this morning.  Area's on Long Island saw over 10 inches of rain yesterday and it's still raining.  The radar currently is showing very intense rain slowly creeping north in Eastern Connecticut.

NWS Taunton radar

The heavy concentrated downpours will continue this afternoon and evening.  Leftover showers will pepper the area the tomorrow before exiting and leaving a nice Wednesday.  Thursday also looks good, warm and mostly sunny.  However another shot of wet weather is possible at the end of the week.  For reasons mentioned above I decided to concentrate on today's weather event.

Tropical Storms Franklin and Gert formed over the weekend.  Franklin bombed away out to sea and was classified for all of 24 hours.  Gert is just to the east of Bermuda and is a strong Tropical Storm.  Gert may become the first hurricane of the season.  A tropical wave is interacting with the Lesser Antilles and it is becoming better organized.  This could become Harvey.  Another impressive tropical wave moved off Africa today and that is another one to watch.  There have been 7 tropical storms, but no Hurricanes so far.  That will change and it will change soon.

Finally, my thoughts and prayers go out to the people killed in Indianapolis this weekend.  The strong wind gust was caused by a severe thunderstorm.  Its known as a gust front and they often produce extensive damage.  People like to ask "What could have been done?" The honest question is nothing could have been done.  It was a terrible natural disaster.  The fair officials would not have been able to evacuate everyone in time because the wind precedes the actual thunderstorm.  Its time to remember those killed and learn from this, not place blame.

Maine for the weekend

I'm off to Maine tomorrow morning for the weekend.  I'll be back Sunday night.  Here is a quick forecast...Friday  and Saturday are wonderful days, mainly clear skies with temperatures in the 80's.  Sunday is very humid with rain moving in by 5 pm.  Sunday night and Monday are rainy, possibly heavy rain and localized street flooding.  I also expect at least one tropical storm to form over the weekend deep in the Eastern Atlantic.  Have a good one everyone.

Midday/Tropical Update

There is a low chance of thunderstorms tonight in advance of a cold front moving across the Great Lakes region.  The front will be beneficial however, as dewpoints in southern New England are currently running in the mid 60's.  Behind the front in Michigan dew points in some areas are in the 40's.  This is very comfortable air and it will stick around for a couple of days.  Canadian air in summer feels great after days and days of dew points in the upper 60's and low 70's, which is what we have been experiencing.  Besides the slight thunderstorm threat tonight the forecast for tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday is pretty straightforward.  As meteorologist Justin Perry says the borecast is sunny and 80 for the next 3 days.  Actually Saturday may be quite warm as high pressure moves offshore and the winds will turn to the southwest.  Highs in the upper 80's are possible.  The run ends Sunday when showers return and possibly a repeat of this past Sunday with heavy rain.

Tropics Discussion

Interesting things are beginning to happen in the Atlantic Ocean.  Two well developed tropical waves have emerged off of Africa and I think both will develop.  The first wave is large and has plenty of its own moisture; therefore the dry air and Saharan dust will have a minimal impact on the system.  So if this storm develops, which several models (including the special tropical cyclone only models) are indicating, its name will be Franklin.  The wave behind it, also is forecast to develop, would be named Gert.  A third wave behind this one, if it were to develop, would be named Harvey.

When a series of tropical waves develop like this, they each play a role in the track of the others.  Consider the "I" formation and a "41" quick sweep.  The guard pulls, which would be the first wave, or Franklin and leads the way.  This storm would put moisture in the air for the second wave (possibly Gert).  Gert is the fullback and the second wave in a series like this tends to move further west (see Earl 2010, Fran 1996).  In this scenario, the first wave (if it were to develop) is still one to watch because Edouard in 1996 prompted Hurricane Watches and warnings for the East Coast before ultimately moving out to sea.  The final wave in the series usually is left in cooler waters due to the upwelling of cooler ocean water caused by the first two storms. The tailback gains several yards before being brought down by the "defender" (the upwelled water).  However Atlantic ocean temperatures are among the warmest recorded in history, slightly behind 2005 which was the most active season on record so how much of a factor this is remains to be seen.

2011 sea surface temperature anomaly charts (NOAA)

Long-time Hurricane researcher Joe Bastardi posted on his twitter that the overall trend is looking like 1955 and 1999, both analogs to this hurricane season.  Both times multiple hurricanes approached North Carolina.  Certainly things are looking ominous in the long range, but it is long range so nothing to panic about, just something to think about.  I don't like to over hype things or cry wolf as I've been humbled by snowfall forecasting several times.  Just given the tough economic times that the world faces, if a threat exists people should know about it.

Heavy Rain Again

More rain is on the way for tonight and tomorrow.  Originally it appeared that the rain would hold off until later tonight but that has not been the case.  Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are moving across New York and are expanding as they move in Western New England.

NWS Upton, NY radar loop

What to expect-
Rain with isolated thunder and lightning.

When-
Beginning between 330-5 PM and continuing off/on until tomorrow morning.  Then a secondary band of showers and storms is forecast to move into the area after noon tomorrow.

Severe Weather-
Yes, for southwestern New England.  Supercell thunderstorms may develop across CT and the Pioneer Valley (yeah again) and these will have to be tracked.  Tomorrow's current severe threat is low.

The rest of the week and Saturday will be sunny with temperatures in the 70's and low humidity.

Heavy Rain Potential Today

Today is muggy and warm, not a comfortable combination.  Given the moisture in the atmosphere and weak steering currents in the atmosphere, slow moving heavy rain with embedded thunder and lightning is likely across Central and Eastern Massachusetts.  There is a small chance for severe weather, however parameters are only marginally favorable to support supercell thunderstorms.  None the less, starting between 1 and 3 showers and storms should begin to fire from Springfield to Worcester to Bedford.  These will move slow, so areas prone to flash flooding will need to be watched.  Tomorrow will be nice, temperatures in the upper 70's but by tomorrow evening rain will work back into the region.  The rain will remain into Wednesday before this active period New England is in takes a break for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

The tropics are quiet for now as African Dust is limiting thunderstorm development in the deep Atlantic Ocean.  The dust particles limit how high into the atmosphere thunderstorms can grow by suppressing cloud formation (Dunion  et al 2011).  Dust storms also have a dry mid layer which simply said, is terrible for hurricane formation.  The dust storms can also enhance vertical wind shear, which blows the tops of thunderstorms and does not allow the center to become co-located with the convection.  Smaller systems are more vulnerable to this phenomena than larger cyclones.  Here is the link to the NASA study.

Dust limits this type of development

I'll update if needed this afternoon, happy Monday

Beneficial Rain

Today will remain unsettled with beneficial rains, albeit on the weekend.  The lawns need this given the water restrictions facing most of the Blackstone Valley.  Rain will end from west to east early this afternoon and then there should be a few hours of dry weather before another batch of showers moves through later tonight, possibly impacting the Sox-Yanks game.  Tomorrow will be warm and there is a moderate chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.  Otherwise it will be nice with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80's.  Rain will return in earnest on Tuesday night into Wednesday and it could be a steady soaking rain instead of the typical summer showers.  Temperatures will be in the 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The end of the week is looking nice so if you are heading to Foxboro on Thursday for the Patriots preseason opener you will be in luck.  Temperatures at first glance look to be in the upper 70's for Thursday-Saturday.  In the extended forecast things are beginning to change around the country.  There is an accurate article in the Worcester Telegram & Gazette Local Section about the upcoming heart of Hurricane season.  For those who have been following me since I started this blog the article will not be news to you, but for those who haven't you can read my 2011 seasonal forecast here.  The links are apparent to the 1930's and 1950's which featured rough winters and hot summers in the Midwest (sound familar?).

I understand that for the last few years its been common to wonder, "Is this the year New England faces another Hurricane?" and each year the answer has been no.  But the fact remains that New England has yet to face a Hurricane while the Atlantic Ocean remains in its positive phase.  It took 11 years for a Hurricane to strike New England the last time the Atlantic switched from cold to warm.  The storm that broke the trend was a Hurricane in 1936.  The Great Hurricane of 1938 followed two years later, then in 1944 the Great Atlantic Hurricane wrecked havoc again on the region.  In 1954 two more Hurricanes struck (after close calls in 1950) within three weeks of one another.  In 1960 Hurricane Donna completed the buzz saw of New England Hurricane activity.   Hey, maybe our luck will continue but history says it won't and history is overwhelmingly pointing to the East Coast as the place to watch this year.  Here is an article from veteran and expert long range forecaster Joe D'Aleo of weatherbell.com talking about the next 3 months.

As of now, we into year 16 of the warm Atlantic phase.  These tend to last 30-40 years, but there isn't enough data to be completely sure.  My advice is keep an eye out for the next 3 months on the Atlantic Ocean, either through the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov), the Weather Channel, or let me keep an eye on it for you right here at New England Weather.

Back from Vacation

I apologize for not posting the last few days as I've been away down the cape.  It was a great time, deep sea fishing, sea food, the beach, and of course bocce.   The catch of the day was my buddy Corey's 45 inch, 36 lb striper fish that he landed in Cape Cod Bay.  There was a nice thunderstorm on Tuesday night that prompted a Severe Thunderstorm warning as it roared trough Barnstable Harbor.

The Monster

 
The weather for the next few days will be mostly nice, but at times unsettled depending on where you live.  Most people will stay dry in Southern New England, but there is a threat of a shower or thunderstorm around midday. Tonight will be partly cloudy and temperatures will fall into the 60's.  Friday remains mostly nice but like today there is a slight chance of a shower.  Some models are showing relatively steady rain, however the general set up doesn't support a washout.

This weekend will have increasing chances of rain because a series of low pressure systems will move through the region.  Temperatures will remain normal for August, meaning upper 70's and low 80's.  As of now, Saturday will be humid with a threat of showers after the high pressure area protecting the region moves out to sea and allows the low pressure to work in.  Sunday looks to have a greater chance of thunder than Saturday.

Tropical Storm Emily, NOAA satellite image

Tropical Storm Emily formed over the weekend.  Right now she is centered south of Hispaniola and is threatening to drop life threatening flooding rains on Haiti today and tomorrow.  Unfortunately for Haiti, nearly 98% of the country is deforested.  What that means is that when it rains, there are no trees to absorb some of the water.  Therefore mudslides and flash flooding readily occur.  Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere and events like these keep Haiti in that cycle.  A corrupt government, the devastating earthquake of January 2010, the Hurricanes of 2008, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 continue to ravage this country.

Right now winds are 50 mph.  There are several scenario's that can now play out.  The storm isn't likely to be torn apart by the mountains of the Dominican Republic at this point, but it could be torn apart by the mountains of Cuba if it continues.  It also could move northwest into the Bahama's.  Once it is there the atmospheric and oceanic environment will favor strengthening BUT only IF the core of the tropical cyclone circulation is not disrupted by the mountains.  Tropical forecasting is tricky because of all the variables that go into these storms.  I'm struggling to forecast where the storm will go once it is in the Bahama's.  The storm has moved much further west than many of the models have forecast already.  Therefore I am not ruling out a category 1 Hurricane hit on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  History supports land falling Hurricanes on the Carolina coast in years like this.  If the storm gets as far west as the outer banks, it may curve close enough to Southern New England to give us a jolt.  We will see.  This is not the most likely scenario as of now, the most likely is Emily strengthening in the Bahama's and then moving out to sea.

National Hurricane Center 5-day forecast track/cone of unceratainty

Have a great Thursday