Stormy Pattern Continues, First Snow Likely For Many Thursday Night

When I look into your eyes

I can see a love restrained

But darlin' when I hold you

Don't you know I feel the same

Nothin' lasts forever

And we both know hearts can change

And it's hard to hold a candle

In the cold November rain

(If you now have Guns N' Roses in your head and have 10 minutes to kill, you can find the music video for November Rain here.)

Rain has been a constant theme so far this fall, continuing a pattern that declared itself in July.  Since July, Worcester is averaging 5.7" of precipitation per month!  That does not include the 4.94" that has fallen so far in November, which doesn't include today.  We have a 6" precipitation surplus over the past 5 months and that will only grow as November progresses.  Flooding has not yet been a major issue.  So far, the spacing between these rain events has been long enough to allow for the rivers to breathe.  Even with today's event, most predictions keep the Blackstone River in its banks over the next 7 days.  You can check on your local rivers here.

WSI Intellicast Northeast Regional Radar 930 AM

This storm system is helping to kick off what will be a banner week for Thanksgiving skiing in Northern New England.  The rain will end early this afternoon in Southern New England with clearing skies and a sharp temperature drop this evening.   Temperatures tonight will fall into the teens in NH, VT, and ME and into the mid 20's across MA, CT, and RI.   Max temperatures tomorrow will struggle to get into the mid 30's in Central and Western MA.  Temps will be in the upper 30's across CT, RI, and Eastern MA.

NDFD 2 m max temperatures Wednesday (image WeatherModels.com)

Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be in teens most places.  Even across the Cape and Islands temps should be in the mid 20's.

NDFD 2 m min temps Thursday AM (image WeatherModels.com)

High pressure will be in control so mostly sunny skies will accompany the winter blast on Wednesday.  The high will begin to be pushed to the east by a developing storm system in the Southeast US.  By Thursday AM, a sprawling, messy system with lots of moisture will begin moving northeast.  High clouds will also arrive prior to the precipitation.  Thursday afternoon will feel and look a lot like winter.

WPC Surface Fronts and Precipitation Thursday 7 AM

 The Thursday evening commute should be just fine in Southern New England, although I will be watching the trends.   Temperatures Thursday will struggle to get out of the low 30's and will be dropping into the mid to upper 20's by Thursday evening.   The cold, dense air mass will tough to dislodge initially so everyone in Southern New England begins as snow.

12z NAM WRF Hi-Res Simulated Precipitation Type Thursday 7 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Some snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain as the storm tracks near Long Island and across the Cape and Islands.  The snow will quickly turn to plain rain across Eastern MA and Southern RI just after midnight.  Snow will hold on a bit longer in Worcester County before turning over to rain before 5 AM south of the Pike.  Snow turns to sleet, freezing rain, and then plain rain around 7 AM south of Route 2.  I'll have to watch the Merrimack Valley in case cold air holds on longer than currently modeled, as history tells us it may.   Rain will continue through the early afternoon, maybe ending as some snow/sleet/freezing rain before tapering off.

The Bottom Line

Snow begins after 7 PM on Thursday.  Accumulating snow falls from around midnight to 4 AM in Southern Worcester County.  Accumulations of 1-3" are likely.  A brief burst of sleet and freezing rain is possible between 4-6 AM before going over to all rain.  Although annoying, with a little bit of extra time everyone should be able to get where they need to go.  Consider this our "fall training" for winter.

-I will update tomorrow with the latest trends and timing and the all important snow accumulation map.

-Zack Green