Rain Ending As Snow For The Blackstone Valley Tuesday

Tomorrow is Tuesday and surprise, surprise...precipitation is in the forecast.  WBZ went back and found that there has been measurable precipitation on 9 of the last 11 Tuesdays.

Climbing the rainy ranks...Top 5 Fall for number of days with rain/snow (and climbing) AND Tomorrow will be our 9th rainy Tuesday in the last 11 pic.twitter.com/d5UdKPwLhf

— Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) November 19, 2018

For many north and west of 495, tomorrows precipitation comes in the form of snow.  While all rain is on the table in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts, Southern Worcester County, Southeast Middlesex County, and Essex County will deal with mostly rain but there will be mixing at times before ending as a coating to 1-2" of snow.  We clear out Wednesday before historic cold invades for Thanksgiving.

Headlines
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Northern Worcester County, parts of Western MA, Southern VT, Southern NH, and Southern ME. 

NWS Monday PM Headlines

I would add Northwest Middlesex County to this and I would also add Northern Essex County to this and they may be added this evening or tomorrow AM.   There are no headlines for the Blackstone Valley and I don't anticipate any being issued, although untreated roads will get slippery tomorrow afternoon.

General Overview
Another wave of low pressure will track along the Southern New England coast, increasing in strength as it does so.  Snow begins to fly near the MA/NH/VT boarder just after midnight.  A few showers will be possible in the Blackstone Valley at this time but most of the precipitation holds off until 5-6 AM.  Even in the Valley, some precipitation may fall as sleet or freezing rain but the predominant p-type will be rain.    I will urge caution when traveling. 

WPC Surface Fronts/Precip Tuesday 7 AM. 1 PM, 7 PM

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30's and will fall a bit during the day.  So as we get to the afternoon, the snow that will be falling north and west of  495/Pike will sag south and east.  This change happens in the Blackstone Valley late Tuesday AM. 

18z HRRR Simulated Radar Monday 8 PM to Tuesday 9 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Tuesday night we start to head towards Mid-Winter type temperatures as an Arctic air mass invites itself over for Thanksgiving dinner.  More on this tomorrow.

Timing and Impacts
From the Pike to Rt 2, I expect 2-4" of snow, including the city of Worcester.  3-6" amounts are likely in extreme Northern MA and into Southern VT, NH, and ME.  I also expect 2-4" around Lawrence, Haverhill, and Methuen.   Snow could briefly fall at rates of 1"/hr in these spots late morning and early afternoon.  I am only expecting a coating to 2" around and just south of the Pike.  This image is from the HRRR model and I think it is spot on.  (Note- Click to enlarge all photos.)

18z HRRR 36-hour Snowfall (image WeatherModels.com)

It always amazes me how many people in New England have vehicles that do not perform well in the snow.  Its also early in the season so not everyone has their snow tires yet.  As a result, that coating to an inch in the Blackstone Valley can very easily screw up traffic.  The take home message is to give yourself some extra time for both commutes tomorrow.  It looks like it is going to be a long winter.

-Zack Green