Winter Returns With A Vengeance

If you are a member of my Facebook weather group (Blackstone Valley Weather Service- please like and share if you enjoy my work), you know that I was skeptical that we could see a big snowstorm this weekend.  Most of the storms this season have cut to our west and brought plain rain.  When the computer models started to show that happening again, it seemed reasonable.  Well something changed last night.  Specifically, the low pressure center that will lift out of the Southern Plains is now modeled to move along the South Coast, instead of to our west.  That changes the temperature profile from warm to cold.  That would mean more snow and ice.  I wanted to see the morning model runs before posting today.  When I saw the Euro model this morning....

(Super Troopers, h/t @chrishamptonwx)

Is there any snow before this weekend?
Yes! Some light snow will fall overnight Thursday into Friday AM.  Worcester will probably have a two hour delay because, well, that's all it takes in that city.  Everyone else will be able to handle it but salt and sand trucks will need to do a quick treatment of the roads.

01.16.19 12z NAM 3 km P-type Friday 5 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

 What are we facing this weekend?
A multi-faceted winter storm that will bring a heavy thump of snow and then a change over to sleet/freezing rain/rain for some, before finishing everywhere as snow.  This part of my thinking has not changed.  The difference now is that the thump of snow will be fast and furious and will hold on longer.  Unfortunately, the Blackstone Valley is right on the line between all snow, freezing rain, and rain.  The exact forecast will come into clearer focus tomorrow.

When will it start?
Snow will begin Saturday night, increasing in intensity after midnight.

When will it end?
After snowing into Sunday morning, a change to sleet and freezing rain will occur in parts of the region.  I'm not going to try and nail this today, but just know the Blackstone Valley, RI/CT, and SE MA all have a chance to see a long period of sleet and freezing rain.  It will go over to snow Sunday afternoon as the storm pulls away and Arctic air rushes in behind the system.  Snow may linger until Monday morning.

What will the temperatures be?
North of the Mass Pike, freezing.  South of the Mass Pike, it can be 10 degrees in one town and 35 degrees two towns over.   Everyone gets cold Sunday afternoon.  By Monday morning, most people are near 0 with many communities below 0.

Will it be windy?
There will be wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH at times.  Blowing snow will help to limit visibility.

What kind of snow are we getting? Snowball/snowman snow, cement, or fluffy?
It depends how much mixing we get.  Where it is all snow it will be light and fluffy.  If just sleet mixes in, it will be a nice mix of fluff and snowball type snow.  Where there is prolonged icing or rain, there will be cement snow.

Will there be power outages?
Unfortunately, yes.  Have a backup plan for the championship games.

How much snow can I expect?
Its looking significant.  I don't really do snow maps this early, but at least a foot is on the table in most communities.  The longer it snows, the more you get.  It's about time...

This storyline almost at an end. It's been real. No quieter winter on record Dec 1 to MLK Weekend. Time to move on and start the season. #wbz pic.twitter.com/GhxgW1yBJM

— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 16, 2019

I'll have much more tomorrow.  Winter has returned.  Let's go!

(TB 12, obviously)