The Blackstone Valley Dodged A Bullet

- The Blackstone Valley dodged a bullet with the twin 7/26 tornadoes.  They were bad enough and its almost a miracle that there are no injuries.

Pine Grove Cematary Whitinsville, MA (image Steve Falconer)

• Nocturnal Tornado
• The 230 AM arrival time meant most people were sleeping.  Nocturnal tornadoes account for only 27% of all tornadoes, but they are responsible for 39% of all tornado deaths. 
• No Tornado Warning
• The National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 232 AM.  It arrived at 232 according to the NWS Public Information Statement about the tornadoes.  A Tornado Warning would likely have triggered the emergency alert feature on many cell phones.  There was no real warning.  
• I don't blame the NWS.  They issued the Severe Thunderstorm Warning when the velocity scan reached the threshold for severe wind.  It was a unique small supercell as the SPC Mesoscale Discussion called it, but not until 3 AM.  This was on no one's radar.
• MEMA claiming that there was warning is technically true, but they are fortunate there were no causalities.  A severe thunderstorm warning issued as the storm hit containing the language "a tornado is possible" isn't adequate warning for a nocturnal tornado.
• Lack of Lightning 
• The largely uncomfortable tropical air mass ensured air conditioning units would be running on high.  With no thunder to roar over the a/c's, residents woke up to trees slamming against their homes or crashing in the woods.  I saw a lot of people on social media saying that they did not even know there was a storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Framingham MA, Milford MA, Whitinsville MA until 3:00 AM EDT pic.twitter.com/mrfYnPYgBS

— NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm) July 26, 2018

• Tornado Track Avoided Densely Populated Areas
• There is significant damage to dozens of residences.  If the storm had tracked in a route where the 4.4 miles took it from the Village to Rockdale in Northbridge, several hundred to even over a thousand families could have suffered structural damage to their homes or apartments.  An even worse track would be the second tornado then tracking down in Grafton or Millbury.  

Tornado likely touched down in Douglas, traveled through Northbridge, lifted and then touched back down in Upton...considered two tornadoes in the record books but likely one that just re-touched...again more at 5p from @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/PFYPc56OX7

— Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) July 26, 2018

• Tornadoes sine 1950
• Douglas- 1 (7/26/18 EF-1)
• Uxbridge 1(7/26/18 EF-0)
• Northbridge 2 (6/9/53 EF-3, 7/26/18 EF-0)
• Upton 1 (7/26/18 EF-1)
• Tropical Air Mass Continues
• Tropical air thanks to south/southwest winds will continue Friday and Saturday.  Severe weather looks to stay in Western MA and Northern CT on Friday with damaging winds and flash flooding as primary hazards.  Storms will weaken as they approach the Blackstone Valley.  That said, high resolution guidance is holding these storms together in Rhode Island and Southeast MA through midnight, especially towards the coast.

11z HRRR Simulated Radar Through Saturday 1 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

Additional storms may fire Friday as the triggering cold front will be slow to push offshore, largely thanks to stubborn Bermuda High.  Saturday afternoon humidity should decrease we the region gets a small break from the oppressive air.  

Until next time.

-Zack Green