Temps to Rebound After Arctic Blast Shatters Records

There is a new leader in the clubhouse for the top spot on my coveted "Top Weather Events of 2016" blog.   While there is not much competition so far it will take a significant event (Hurricane or Tornado) to knock this off.

2.14.2016 record low temperatures

Some fun facts via NWS Boston

• Nantucket fell below 0 for the first time since January 16, 2004 (also -3)
• Boston and Worcester each recorded lowest temperatures since 1957
• Because Boston fell to -4 before midnight it also set a new record low for Feb 13.  After going 49 years with a record low in February Boston has now set one on back to back days 
• Wind chills reached -44 in Worcester (see list)

  

  Recorded wind chills via NWS Boston

  Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that New York City broke a record that stood for 100 years 

NWS New York records

 Just an aside- we cannot deny that record highs have outpaced record lows across the United States for the last few 2 decades.  December was the warmest December on record by a lot.  But we also can't ignore that the last 3 winter have seen cold that rivals some of the all timers from previous era's.  Last February was the coldest month on record (100-140 years) for everyone except Boston where it was the 2nd coldest behind only Feb 1934.  If you support Bernie Sanders you need to ask yourself what would last night have been like if I didn't have natural gas or oil to heat my home?  I am 100% in favor of finding clean, sustainable energy but we have to actually look at what the weather is telling us.  We are seeing extremes on both ends of the temperature scale.  There is record warmth out west right now balancing the record cold in the east.  Even in a warming climate record cold arctic assaults can and will happen.

Temperatures will rise to around 10 today.  Tonight temps fall back below 0 tonight with the exception of Boston which should stay around 1 or 2.  The rest of the region is around -3 to -13 tonight with the coldest being in Western MA.  High temps tomorrow rebound into the mid 20's.  Some snow is likely tomorrow evening before it goes over to rain Tuesday AM.  How much and when?  It starts from South to North around 5-7 PM.  I think 1-3 is good for most of SNE

12z NAM hires accumulated snowfall through 4 AM Tuesday (image Weatehrbell)

Then we should see a transition to ice and rain.  Western MA, N CT and N Worcester County are at the highest risk for ice.  Winter Weather Advisories will likely go up later today for snow/ice.  That will make Tuesday AM slick.

WPC surface forecast 7 AM Tuesday

This storm is called an inland runner.  Basically it runs up the Appalachian Mountains to our west bringing with it strong winds heavy rain and warm temps.  For example by Tuesday at 7 PM temps are around 50 or just 65 degrees warmer than this morning!

12z NAM hires 2 m temps Tuesday 7 PM (image Weatherbell)

Overall a healthy slug of precipitation will fall.  If storm drains are clogged with snow and ice some street flooding is possible.

WPC 1-3 day precip

Finally the winds may be very strong as the lower jet stream will be ripping.  That said the upper air profiles currently warm the mid layers of the atmosphere enough to keep the damaging winds above our heads.  This will be something to watch over the next 24-36 hours. 

Stay warm today friends.

-Zack Green