Good Morning everybody. I am happy for the school cancellations. I did not want to upset the teachers I promised a snow day. Let's look at the current conditions and project the rest of the storm.
The
winter storm warning remains in effect until 3 PM. It has actually expanded north in Southern New Hampshire and into Southern RI
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| NWS Boston watches and warnings |
First lets look at the water vapor satellite loop. See how the moisture source extends to the Gulf of Mexico all the way into New England.
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| GOES_east water vapor loop 815 AM |
The northeast regional radar shows a lot of precipitation
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| NWS Northeast regional radar 818 AM |
Low pressure has formed along the stalled front offshore
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| WPC surface analysis 7 AM |
The elongated S shape of the cold front is a classic snow signature for New England. We would be looking at a lot more snow if the stalled boundary in Northern New England was not present. Look at the temperatures
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| 7 AM 2 m RTMA temps (image weatherbell) |
Temperatures in Southern New England are marginal for snow. Last year when it was so cold the snow was fluffy and it piled up quickly. This snow will be wet and heavy. Some colder air is moving into Worcester County so the snow will be slightly lighter there. So let us time this out.
By noon the radar looks like this
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| 13zHRRR simulated radar valid 12 PM (image weatherbell) |
Some light snow will still be around Worcester until 4-5 PM but still going strong in Eastern New England.
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| 13z HRRR simulated radar 6 PM (image weatherbell) |
So lets say another 4-7 inches of snow in addition to what is already on the ground in purple/pink below. This model assumes a 10.1 liquid to snow ratio. I think that is too high given the heavy nature of the snow so I will cut these a bit
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| 12z HRRR 15 hour snow total |
All in all a messy Friday. Enjoy the day.
Zack Green
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