Midweek Nor'easter to Impact Region

There will be a strong nor'easter developing along the east coast this week.  While the intensity of this nor'easter (May receive a name from the Weather Channel; would be Athena) will pale in comparison to Sandy, it will cause further problems for the areas hardest hit by the storm.  For coastal areas additional flooding is likely and for areas well away from the center a healthy dumping of snow will occur.  There is high agreement among model guidance on this event which is remarkable for this range.  When there is a block in the Atlantic computer guidance skill increases according to Dr. Ryan Maue of Weatherbell.

I'll show the evolution of this system and add some analysis on the weather preceding the Nor'Easter.  Please remember that in the atmosphere pressure decreases with height.  900 mb is around 5000 feet, 500 mb is around 18,000 feet and 300 mb is around 30,000 feet.

Surface

Surface Analysis valid Monday 230 AM

A strong low pressure system is about to impact the Pacific Northwest.  High pressure in control over Central Canada sending a cold Arctic air-mass into the Eastern Half of the United States.  Several low pressure systems are diving across the upper plains and a boundary exists along the gulf coast.  At upper levels the set up looks like this

500 mb

05/06 NAM run, initial conditions 

Polar vortex is over Canada allowing overnight lows to drop into the 20's for much of New England.  Energy diving through the Great Plains and more about to effect the Northwest.

300 mb

300 mb Jet, also 05/06 NAM (1 am this morning)

Strong Jet in the Pacific while the southern stream is over the Gulf Coast.

Now tonight, 7 PM

Surface

850 mb wind and Surface Pressure.  Image from Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell EURO model

Tuesday will be nice across the northeast, albeit chilly.  Highs will only reach the low 40's in Southern New England.

500 mb

A well defined shortwave cutting through Arkansas

You can see the wave over Arkansas on both the surface and 500 mb chart.  This is the upper level support for the surface feature.

300 mb

Near record warmth likely out west with ridge, favors deepening trough over East

A classic Nor'Easter set up with a ridge out west, trough east, and subtropical jet stream running along Gulf Coast.

Now Tuesday night 7 PM

Surface

Low pressure to from along Gulf Coast, cross Florida and begin to strengthen over Gulf Stream

Again this is the EURO model which is the best of the medium range guidance.  Storm is taking shape off shore.  Blocking still dominating in the Atlantic so nowhere for this storm to go but up the coast.

500 mb

Upper level energy maximum right along the coast, favors a low pressure center just offshore

Ridge is really pumping out west allowing for the eastern trough to capture the developing nor'easter.

300 mb

Add caption

Energetic Jet to interact with storm while it makes its way up the coast.  This will allow the storm to deepen rapidly.  

That is how the upper air will allow this system to develop.  The end result for Wednesday night is this

EURO 72 hour forecast

The end result of all these images is a long duration slow moving Nor'easter will impact Southern New England and the Mid Atlantic.  Snow will occur on the far back side of the system.  The American GFS is showing this for snow totals

GFS valid Friday morning 7 am

This is probably a bit over done as I expect a track more over the outer cape, but if it is just over the benchmark (40 N. 70 W) somebody can look for close to 10 inches of snow especially in higher terrain.  For rainfall I defer to the HPC.  Here is their 5 day totals

5 day rainfall outlook

Thats a general 1-2 for most, isolated 3-4 inch amounts.  These heavier bands will be able to mix stronger winds to the surface.  Isolated tree damage and power outages are possible especially along the coast and Southeast MA, RI, CT, and Long Island.  Of course this is no Sandy but its still a strong storm and needs to be taken seriously.  I will post again tonight or tomorrow and will be more brief, just wanted to show the evolution of a Nor'Easter.

   

Upcoming Weather, Nor'Easter Next Week

One of the toughest things to do in meteorology is get back to the "regular" weather after a big storm.  Many meteorologists chose to study the science due to love of big storms, often from a very young age.  After Hurricane Sandy it was a little boring for a day.  Then the charts picked up something interesting for next week.  On Wednesday morning I buried a nugget about potential snow next week.  Its still on the table, but there are also signals that this storm will run along the coast and into New England, rather than just offshore which is the snow track.  First off the weekend forecast.

Friday

Mostly Cloudy, temperature around 50.  Chance of sprinkle today/flurry tonight.  Tonight low 33

Saturday

Mix of sun and clouds.  High 48. Light wind from Northwest 6-10 mph. Saturday night low 32.

Sunday

Mix of sun and clouds. High 48.  Steadier Northwest wind of 10-14 mph, gusts to 25. Sunday night low 26.

Monday

Mainly sunny, high 41.  Monday night low of 24.

Tuesday

Sunny, high 42.  Low of 29.

The next system will impact the region Wednesday into Thursday.  Right now I favor a rain with a light coating of snow to finish (60 percent) over an all snow solution (30) and a non event (10).  This is by reading the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index).  It is predicted to be trending positive, but not all the way.  So a storm crossing the Cape seems to be a good bet.  

NAO from Climate Prediction Center

The storm has been picked up by both the EURO and GFS models, always a good sign when looking for a storm.  Both model's ensemble members also have a storm clustering around the benchmark.  The Canadian (GEM) model shows a monster Gulf of Mexico-Atlantic Nor'Easter taking shape.  It would appear flooding and high winds will be an issue in Southern New England with snow in the higher elevations.  Here is the EURO ensemble package (Many models with the EURO's physics altered slightly when initializing).  Image from Weatherbell and Dr. Ryan Maue.

Would be a nice track for snowfall

And the GFS operational 

900 mb winds and MSLP. Valid Thursday 2 AM

More to follow on this event, enjoy the sunshine and bundle up.

Final Sandy Thoughts

Posted at Tornado Titans

Sandy All but Gone, What's Next?

Sandy gave Eastern MA, NH, and ME one more punch last night.  A micro burst was reported in Wareham, MA leaving thousand without power.  Latest updates are that 55 people have died in the United States with an additional 50 + in the Caribbean.  However Sandy is going to be out of our hairs soon.  The only lingering effects will be isolated showers Wednesday and into Thursday.  So lets move past Sandy and into the week ahead.

For a meteorologist it's very boring after all the action last week.

Today
Most areas of New England stay dry with exception being Maine.  Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds high 56.

Tonight
Best chance for an additional shower tonight.  Low 43.

Thursday
Mostly Cloudy early, partly cloudy later high 54.

Thursday Night
Fog developing overnight. Low 37

Friday
Partly Cloudy. High 54

Friday Night
Cloudy, slight chance of shower (~10 percent) low 39.

Weekend
Things will cool off this weekend.  Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday with a high of 49.  Saturday night will be clearing, allowing temperatures to drop into the lower 30's.  Thus the rebound of Sunday will only be to 47.  Skies will be clear.

Early Next Week
Clear and cool Monday, potential to see some snowflakes on Tuesday.

Have a good Halloween, I can't believe tomorrow is November.

Sandy Threat not Over for New England

The worst impacts may have spared the majority of New England but all one has to do is turn on the news to see the devastation that occurred in the Tri-State region.  New England dodged a direct hit, but the indirect hit from Sandy was still enough to cause 300,000 + customers to lose power in MA alone.  Reports of almost 1 million New England customers are without power.   Here is a list of wind damage reports from yesterday.  Also the south New England shore was rocked by storm surge.  I haven't heard any updates from CT since last night when a Category 4 evacuation (the highest threat) was issued for coastal residents.  Atlantic City was completely flooded; the boardwalk was washing down the street.

ABC 6 News/AP photo of Atlantic City surge

And some from New York City last night

Photo Julian Ehrhardt, Brooklyn

Water in Subways

Water pouring into Subway, captured by security camera

Fires breaking out, reported 50 homes destroyed in Queens

Getty Images

I find these images staggering.  However there will be more time to reflect on Hurricane Sandy's when she is over.  She is not for New England.  Large bands continue to work in off the ocean while Sandy slowly winds down.  Here is Sandy this morning

5 AM surface analysis

Rainfall is streaming into Southern New England off the Atlantic.  Thunderstorms are ongoing in Northern New England.

Rain approaching Blackstone Valley as of 7 AM, more to come

And a close up of SNE

NWS Taunton, MA radar

Some of these rain bands could briefly take on Severe Thunderstorm Characteristics.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a discussion warning there is a 40% chance New England goes under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.  Bottom line some of these rain bands will be intense.

Mesoscale Discussion issued 6 am, will update if goes to Severe Watch

These won't be extremely damaging storms, but some branches could come down in the heaviest rain bands as winds above the surface are running about 55-60 mph.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out especially near the coast.  Rotating storm bands meet the shoreline where there is friction and that causes tornadoes.

For some good news Friday through next week look to be seasonably mild, something we certainly will take in November.  By the way, 2-4 feet of snow are falling in West Virginia.  May not see an event like this in our lifetimes.  There will be worse storms for New England.  I can't say the same for New Jersey and New York.  

High Wind Warning, Flood Watch for New England

There will be no Hurricane or Tropical Storm warning's for the northeast due to Sandy's transition into a Nor'Easter on steroids.  Once again we have to play mental games with a Hurricane because people here its a "weak category 1" and let their guard down.  First of all we don't get Category 1's in the northeast often.  Second of all the pressure in Sandy has dropped to 946 mb, consistent with a Category 3 Hurricane.  Sandy will not have a powerful core of winds around the center like a purely tropical system would.  Instead the wind field is incredibly large and so everyone feels the effects of the storm for over 24 hours.  A lashing like this will strip the trees that aren't knocked down and so our landscape will look like early December. 

Here is a timeline of what to expect, where, and when.

Today- Noon to Midnight
The heaviest winds will occur during this period.  In Southern New England we will get a strong band of winds by noon time lasting through the night.  Hurricane force gusts will be likely when the rain bands begin to move in around 4 or 5 PM.  It is during this period the majority of trees and powerlines will fall down.

For coastal residents the surge and waves are already inundating the coastline well away from the center.  The high tide this afternoon will be bad; the high tide tonight will be awful.  I expect serious flooding from Chatham to Delaware Bay.  Surge amounts may be to low.

Tomorrow Midnight to Noon
Tropical Storm force wind gusts continue well into tomorrow.  Expect wind gusts to 60 mph all the way to Detroit and Toronto.  See my other posts for graphics on this storm.  We were able to lock into a track on Saturday and we are right on track.

Ridiculously large wind field

From Dr, Ryan Maue of Weathberll Premium 

The pressure in this image is already incorrect- it shows 952 while Sandy is already down to 946 and falling.

Sheets and sheets of rain for the Mid Atlantic

The bands that will be affected Southern New England will not occur until this afternoon.  It is surprising some of the wind gusts reported thus far without any convection.

For example here is the predicted radar for today at 3 PM.

NAM Hi resolution 

And the winds at the same time

900 mb winds over hurricane force

We will be around 984 mb at this time, with 72 (kt) winds above.  When that convection taps those winds I expect wind gusts over 60 mph.  The closer to the coast the more likely these are to be 70 mph.

It is now likely that bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue to rotate onshore through tomorrow.  It will take a long time for power restoration efforts to begin.  Very concerned for the Mid Atlantic today as well as the Cape and coastal MA/RI.  Looking at the data this morning the surge along the eastern MA coast will be worse than forecast.  The waves on top of the surge will be many communities undoing from Sandy.

Follow me on twitter for information and photo's from the northeast. @zgreenwx

Hurricane/Hybrid Sandy Timing and Impacts

If you have been watching The Weather Channel for coverage of Hurricane Sandy, you may have noticed the two different computer models they keep showing.  These two models, the EURO and GFS, are just two of many solutions meteorologists use to forecast the weather.  However the EURO and GFS are two medium range global models and over time have proven to be the best.  The EURO is run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast (ECMWF) and is usually the most reliable model.  The GFS is an American model run by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  Weather models solve the known equations that govern atmospheric physics.  It is for that reason meteorologists study years of calculus and physics in school.  Thank god we developed computer models to solve these equations.

The models use data collected by upper air measures (balloon launches, satellite data, observed data) to input into these equations to start the process.  These measurements are usually taken twice a day, at 8 NAM/PM during Daylight Savings time and at 7 AM/PM when it ends.  They run on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) which begins at 00z at midnight on the Prime Meridian (0 degrees longitude, border West/East Hemisphere) .  This is done so all balloon launches are done at the same time.  In a rare move the government ordered balloon measurements 4 times a day until Sandy passes.  This is an impressive step by the government and shows they are taking the storm very serious.  

Now on to the weather.

I've zeroed in a New Jersey impact.  I am going to support a northern NJ landfall although that doesn't change the forecast for New England all that much.  I apologize in advance for the length of this post; I promise that when the weather is normal I will be much more brief.

Bottom Right is Sandy, Blue arrow pointing to cold front, yellow highlight is energy that will combine with Sandy

Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track and cone of uncertainty.  This is useful to determine who exactly gets the highest winds, but it really does not matter.  I am slightly closer to the GFS model as I have a hard time believing a storm of this size can make a left hook into the Delmarva as the EURO depicts.

Red X's my track

I've set the line for severe New England impacts at 40 degrees North latitude.  If it comes in above we see a storm unlike any in recent times.  For my parents generation it almost seems like the Hurricane version of the Blizzard of 1978.  Sandy is rather ugly looking this morning but her wind field is huge.

X's are energy on Satellite, Lots of moisture for Sandy to work with

And the latest wind field, which is only going to expand

Not only will this field expand, it will intensify 

The predicted rainfall, which for Southern New England is almost an afterthought with the winds we are going to experience.

Valid Sunday 8 am-Monday 8 am

Anything that falls in this period are from the extreme outer feeder bands of the Hurricane (note I will be calling this a Hurricane even though it is going to be a hybrid Nor'Easter/Hurricane).  The real rain from the storm's core will roll in Monday Morning between 8 and 11 am.

Valid Monday 8 am-Tuesday 8 am

Typically the highest winds are on the northeast side of a system while the heaviest rains are on the west.  If anyone remembers Hurricane Irene last year knocked power out to a lot of MA/RI/CT residents, but caused severe flooding in NJ, NY, and VT.  These rainfall forecasts are provided by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).  Of course while all this is going on along the Mid Atlantic coast and New England, a snowstorm will be raging on the backside.  I will not focus on the snow, but will mention it because there has been only a handful of storms like this in the modern era.

GFS six hour snowfall accumulations.  I think DC sees some flakes

If you are a fan of the weather and would like to read more about similar storms throughout history I recommend looking up on Hurricane Hazel, Great Hurricane of 1938 , Gale of 1878, and October 1804 Snow Hurricane.

Coastal Flooding

A long duration of onshore winds will force significant storm surge into the the beaches of Long Island, Northern New Jersey and Southern New England.  Even Northern New England will see moderate water rises.  Waves offshore are forecast to on the order of 40 feet.  Throw in a high tide and coastal residents have a disaster on their hands.  There is a Weather Channel program called "It Could Happen Tomorrow" on New York City being hit from the Southeast by a major Hurricane.  This system might be as close as it gets to that scenario.  

Click to enlarge.  Red circle shows where worst coastal flooding will be.  Everywhere sees awful beach erosion

There is a full moon so tides will already be 20% higher.  Even worse is that the October full moon (Harvest Moon) has the strongest effect on tides.  Coastal communities must seriously consider evacuations.  If you live on Cape Cod and want to leave do so ASAP.

Finally the wind speeds. Residents along the coast will have to deal with dangerous winds and major surge.  Further inland the wind speeds are the major issue.  When compared to Hurricane Irene last year, she does not compare to Sandy.  I lost power for 5 days during Irene.  Our trees have been weakened by Irene and the October Snowstorm last year.  Further this will produce winds of Tropical Storm force for 24-36 hours.  Hurricane force gusts (or sustained in some areas) will be felt for roughly 12 hours.  We didn't see a single Hurricane force gust in MA during Irene.  Block Island gusted to 79.  I think Block Island or Blue Hill gust well over 100.  I set the over/under at 115 mph.  Here is my support for this forecast

GFS 900 mb winds Sunday morning 2 am, maps from Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell

By 2 am winds are beginning to pick up along the east coast.  This is about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere.  All it will take is a some convection (showers, thunderstorms) to bring these to the surface.

Sunday 8 PM.  Tropical Storm force gusts begin

The EURO model at the same time, but at 850 mb instead of 900 mb.

Very similar set up.  Look at the size of this storm.

On Monday morning the winds are approaching 60 MPH

Slowly moving, so water just piling up offshore, waves building

And then Monday evening, the brunt of the storm

GFS Monday 8 PM.  

This is a devastating blow Monday afternoon and evening.  Wind gusts would be over 100 mph for most of southern New England (areas in grayish color), especially coastal regions. Sustained winds would likely be near 65-70 mph.  Further inland 50-60 mph with gusts to 80.

EURO Monday 8 pm

The EURO has the heaviest winds over NYC, NJ, LI.  Awful scenario for these regions.  Yet we still see gusts to 85-90 mph in this scenario.  Again this is stronger than Irene by a longshot.  Also will affect many more people.

Finally GFS Tuesday at 2 am.

Still Hurricane force gusts for SNE

Look at the US/Canadian border.  This would rival Hazel in those areas.  I do not think Sandy will weaken quickly once inland like most tropical cyclones.  She is not going to be a pure tropical cyclone, she will be supported by the jet and infused with Pacific stream energy.  This is why I have been a bit "dire" or perhaps over the top in covering Sandy.  I'd rather hype this storm and have it be a dud than allow people to be under prepared.

Tuesday will still be windy as its unknown how exactly Sandy reacts once over land.  Some model guidance suggest a loop over NY state and then back out to sea.  We can fine tune that later today or tomorrow.  Folks I expect power to be out for a significant period of time. The stores will be mobbed today but get what you need.  Take loose furniture inside, tie down anything you do not want to blow away.  If you sleep in a bedroom in which a large tree could fall on, move to a safer place in the house.  I think thats all.  Any questions leave a comment here, on facebook, or tweet me @zgreenwx.  Thank you for your time.