Snow Showers this afternoon

Yesterday's rains are departing as the cold front and low pressure system that brought it exits the coast.  However a secondary area of low pressure will develop this afternoon and coat the ground with a few hours of snow, just in time for the evening commute.  Most models are in agreement that between 0.20-0.30 of liquid will fall so some areas may see an inch.  Most places the roads will be fine, but be aware that the snow will be falling.

Friday will be chilly, highs only in the mid 40's with a blustery west wind.  The weekend is sunny with highs in the 50's.  More detailed post on weekend and next week later today.

National Grid Blames Weather forecast for Power Delays

National Grid has been publicly criticized for its slow response in returning power to the nearly 500,000 people who lost it during the Nor'Easter two weeks ago.  I was defending the company; October storms like that are rarely seen.  I think the state is wasting money, time, and resources investigating what happened.  They will probably find that the crews worked as hard and as fast as they could to restore power but the damage was too extensive for everyone to have their power back right away.  That's okay, we are an impatient society that wants everything done for us RIGHT NOW!  What's not okay is blaming the weather forecast for the slow response.  Here is the story from WBZ.

Some highlights...
National Grid executives now say the forecast was “fundamentally missed by meteorologists”, who “really underestimated the moisture” and “missed on the weight of the snow.”


Now I'm not trying to toot my own horn, but here is my forecast from the Thursday before the storm.  Here is my forecast the day before the storm.  I had been telling others about this event two weeks in advance (ask my Dad if you know him/see him).  National Grid MUST have a company meteorologist who does long range forecasting for them.  If they do not, then shame on them (I'm looking for a job).  But that is besides the point, look at what the National Weather Service in Taunton said 36 hours before the storm...

THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS EVENT FOR LATE
OCTOBER.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL NOT BE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.

A bigger question is why we need to blame everyone for everything.  Sometimes s&@! happens.  As meteorologists we get things wrong sometimes everyone knows that and everyone loves to point that out.  However, this was not one of those times.  We were on the ball with this forecast from start to finish.  National Grid would have had more sympathy with the public if they had simply said "Sorry, it was a historic storm."  Now they look like fools.

Sunshine tomorrow, Rain Thursday

Surface Weather Map

I hope you all enjoyed our Indian Summer afternoon.  Indian Summer is defined as a day with temperatures above 70 degrees after the first freeze.  How about 70 degrees after our first snowstorm?  We have received zero precipitation since the Snow-tober Nor'Easter.  That run will continue into tomorrow before breaking on Thursday.  A warm front moved northward and helped steer high pressure offshore, bringing a southwesterly flow to Southern New England.  This is the easy part of the forecast because a combination of Tropical Storm Sean and an approaching cold front will spawn a low pressure system that will track through Southern New England.  Model Guidance is not in agreement in regards to Sean as the system is forecast to stall.  The official National Hurricane Center track curves the storm around Bermuda.  The short range North American Model (NAM) sends the storm into Nova Scotia, spawning a heavy Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) Thursday afternoon.   A PRE occurs because of the warm tropical air being pulled north over a colder air mass.  This rain is supported by mid level energy.  This will happen either way, but if the NAM is right the rain will be much heavier.  

NAM 18z 51 hr run 500 mb Vorticity, NCEP

The long range GFS and the GEFS (which has many members and averages the solutions together) develop a secondary low south of Long Island, turning Sean out to sea.  This would led to less rain here in Southern New England.  The SREF (another multi-member model) likes between 0.25-0.50 inches of rain.  This is a good compromise and its what I expect from this storm right now.  Tomorrow I will outline amounts as hopefully some agreement occurs between the NAM and the rest of the model suite.  The weekend will be dry as high pressure builds in.  Another cold front will approach next week but temperatures will be above average for November, with the exception of Friday/Saturday.  

15z SREF 6 hr precip Monday 5 PM 

So tomorrow is nice, temperatures will again climb into the mid 60's.  Some showers may break out overnight Wednesday.  The heaviest moisture will occur Thursday afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 60's on Thursday.  Windy but dry conditions move in behind the system and temperatures will be in the upper 40's/low 50's on both Friday and Saturday.  The air mass will warm for Sunday and Monday before we may see a cold front next Tuesday.

Tropics Discussion
Tropical Storm Sean is the 18th classified system of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The season will wrap up on November 30th, but things can form and persist in December.  2011 becomes the 7th season with at least 18 named storms.  The others are 1887, 1933, 1969, 1995, 2005,  and 2010.  This has been an above average season so far, no doubt.  I will have a complete analysis after the season of how 2011 stacks up.  However despite the gaudy classified storm total, 2011 actually doesn't belong in the same sentence as those first six seasons.  Take a look at these charts I created using data I've collected from the National Hurricane Center.

ACE is a measure of the energy released by a named tropical system.  As you can see, 2011 has a significant less amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes and a much lower ACE.  According to Dr. Ryan Maue of Policlimate, global tropical cyclone activity is down.  With the Pacific Ocean out of its warm phase, perhaps we are signalling a slowdown of this current active Atlantic cycle.  The larger question is why have so many weak tropical systems formed?  So far 12 of the 18 classified systems (likely a 19th when post season review is completed) have failed to reach Hurricane strength.  The answer, I believe, lies with better detection.  I believe several named systems in 2011 would have been unclassified before 2000. 

Great Weather Ahead

In the short term, the good weather will continue and even warm up next week.  Although some big changes are coming down the line (more on this later), we will have to enjoy the short sleeve weather when we get it.  So what we have is an area of high pressure dominating the weather across the eastern half of the United States. The weather will be great for the Game of the Century tonight (LSU 24 Alabama 20).  Here is the surface map...

Click to enlarge

Because air flows in a clockwise manner around a high pressure system, our "air" is currently coming from Canada, therefore it is cool and dry.  However that high pressure area, currently centered near Toronto, will slide southeast, flipping the north wind to a southwesterly wind.  That will allow for temperatures to moderate.  As long as the sky cover is mainly clear, I see most places getting into the upper 60's and MAYBE low 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday.   We are currently experiencing a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which generally means warmer and wetter conditions in the Eastern United States.  What happens is low pressure forms near Greenland/Iceland and becomes stationary, therefore "blocking" storms from travelling off the east coast.  Instead, they cut up along the Appalachian Mountains and we see warm temperatures.

The top forecast is the one to look at; red is forecast, black is the past- from NOAA

The next system looks like its going to moving in by Thursday evening; this timing will probably change.  A wet event is forecast, due to the mild temperatures and overall pattern.  Behind this system things become interesting.  As seen above, the NAO is forecast to return to its negative phase.  The models also agree, pumping some deep cold into the United States.  Looking at the long range GEFS model, one can see deep cold in the Arctic regions.  However, models are famous for breaking down patterns too quickly.  While we will return to a cold pattern by the end of the month, exactly when this occurs is not settled.  I'm going to say that the models have the right idea, they are just a bit quick with the pattern.  That means I expect a cold Thanksgiving in the east.

So today temperatures will struggle to get to 50.  Tomorrow will be warmer, but sunny.  Dress warm and stay hydrated if you are going to the Patriots game. By Monday temperatures are beginning to creep back towards 60.  Tuesday will be mild for November, temperatures in the mid 60's.  I like Wednesday or Thursday to approach 70 before the rain system moves in.

Overnight lows will be moderating over the next few days.  Tonight will be in the upper 20's, tomorrow night upper 30's, before settling in the mid 40's for the next few days.  Enjoy the nice November weather, it's not going to last too long!

November-December Forecast

I expect a cold later third of November and December for much of the United States.  The projected negative NAO, a ramp of extra-tropical Pacific systems, and a La Nina will cause headaches for many as they try to get ready for the holidays.  The most recent analog to December 2011 is December 2008, which is infamous for the Ice Storm (people out of power for 3 weeks) and a pair of systems around December 20th that combined to snow for 46 out of 48 hours in Northbridge.  Here are analogs from 1950, 1955, and 2008.

These are from the Physical Science Research Division of NOAA.  I used the 1950-95 long term average, but the cooling becomes much more pronounced when you look at averages from recent years, (ie 1993-2007 etc; try it yourself here).    The real interesting question is whether or not El Nino will return in 2012.  A neutral state seems likely given a cold PDO; however one can't be ruled out as this La Nina may recharge enough heat that it can be released over the next 8-14 months.  How much heat is released or absorbed in the Pacific plays a critical role in climate, whether you want to believe it or not.

While its nearly impossible to predict what the NAO will do, I think after it switches to negative it will lock in for a rough early winter.  My goal for this blog is to be out in front of things, to have people aware of the general weather pattern.  Go Bruins tonight, Pats tomorrow.  

Mid-Day Nor'Easter Update

Surface Map Notice the Low Pressure off the EC

The storm is beginning to come together off the North Carolina coast.  Snowfall amounts are verifying above 6 inches for many places in the Mid-Atlantic.  Over 44,000 customers have already lost power in these regions.  This is what is heading our way.  The current temperature in Worcester is 35 degrees.  It may not even begin as rain in many areas.  Timing has sped up so precipitation will begin to fall between 1-3 PM.  The latest guidance has trended every slightly to the east, which will lock in a mainly snow event west I-95.  However inside 95 there will be heavy rain and damaging winds, especially across the Cape and Islands.  These winds may be in excess of Hurricane force (74 mph +).

IR rainbow imagery for GOES

This storm is unprecedented.  I'm starting to think that over a foot of snow is possible in Worcester County.  A nice temperature gradient exists just to our east; cold air is already in place.  The intensity of the system will also supply cold air.  Therefore, a changeover is expect by dusk, but it may occur much sooner.  New York City has also turned over to snow much sooner than expected.  This storm is occurring during a "transition"  season (Fall).  The last major storm to occur during a transition season was the April Fools Blizzard of 1997.  Do I expect 3 ft? No I do not but in that storm amounts started off at 4-8 inches, then went up to 8-12, then 12-18 etc.  Given the real time data from the storm, I think my totals are underdone.  Lets call for 8-14 in Worcester County, 14-20 in the Berkshires, 4-8 for areas north of Bridgewater except for the immediate coast.  A low level wind will pick up the warmth of the Atlantic Ocean and keep the immediate coast mainly rain.  However inland our wind has much more of a northerly component, so I expect very little rain.

2 m temperatures

10 m winds

Tree damage is expected to be widespread and so will power outages.  You might need a battery operated radio to hear the Bruins game tonight.  

As always click to enlarge images and leave a comment if you have any questions or want a specific forecast for a given location.  Or leave a message on facebook.  Be safe in the storm

A Major Nor'Easter is on the Way

NAM forecast for 00z/8 PM tomorrow (18z/2 PM model run)

Energy moving across the southeast, ample tropical moisture, and cold air draining into New England are setting the stage for a major October Nor'Easter.  Heavy snow and high winds will create near whiteout conditions tomorrow night.  We are experience and well seasoned in snowstorms around here, but this is an obvious but critical difference; its October.  That means that the leaves are still on the trees which will lead to widespread tree and power line damage across Southern New England.  The combination of the leaves, the saturated ground from recent wet weather, high winds, and weakened trees from Irene will cause numerous power outages tomorrow night.  We can deal with snow; its going to be difficult dealing with snow with downed trees and power lines.

NWS Taunton snowfall forecast

The timing of the storm is terrible.  Tomorrow night is a big party night and many people planned to be on the roads.  If you must travel (and I would advise against travel) you must take precaution.  Bring gloves, a shovel, blankets, and food and water.  Snowfall will be coming down at nearly 1-2 inches per hour at the height of the storm.  These may last for several hours.  Thus, I am forecasting 6-10 inches of snow for the Blackstone Valley, 8-12 as you head further north and west.   Folks down in the Providence to Boston corridor can expect 3-6 inches.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect

The whole event starts as rain.  Clouds increase from South to North throughout the day and rain begins to fall between 2-4 PM.  The changeover to snow occurs as the sun sets or whenever the precip begins to become heavy, whichever occurs first.  Conditions will deteriorate quickly once the changeover occurs.  I advise for people to be off the roads by 6 PM.  The storms clears out by mid morning Sunday.  High winds will rush in behind the storm, so if power is out crews will not get to work until Sunday evening at the earliest.

Finally, I leave you with the National Weather Service in Tauton's final words about the storm...




AS A FINAL NOTE...THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN THE LARGEST

EARLIEST SEASON SNOWSTORM ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS EVENT FOR LATE
OCTOBER.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL NOT BE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.

Any questions, contact me on Facebook or leave a comment.

Blog is Back, So is Snow!

Welcome back to the weather blog!  I'm bringing winter with me.  Sorry to all of you who dislike the S word, but SNOW is on the way.  There are two parts to this story so lets dig in with the current set up.

Surface Weather Map

A series of low pressure systems is riding along a stalled boundary just south of New England.  The first system brought the clouds and light rain yesterday.  Today's system is stronger and is ushering in cold air from Canada.  This is setting the stage for tonight's snowfall  (from another shortwave) and Saturday night's snowfall.  Here is the North American Model (short range) from 8 am this morning for 2 PM.  Notice the 0 degree line is north of Worcester.  This is a decent indicator of the rain/snow line and Northern Worcester County has begun to change over.

Here is the 5 PM forecast

The 0 degree line has fallen to the MA/CT/RI border.  So the changeover will be occurring.  The storm is out of here by about 2 or 3 am so the morning commute shouldn't be too bad.  Watch out for some slick spots due to left over slush on the roadways.  So now the question is how much snow will fall?  North of Worcester I expect a good slug of 2-5 inches of snow.  South of Worcester anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.  The snow will be heavy at times.  The ground is still warm, so its going to take a heavy burst for the snow to accumulate.  This same model is indicating that will happen.  

Tomorrow will feature lots of sunshine, but its only a tease.  Temperatures will peak in the mid 40's just like today.  This cold air mass will still be in place for Saturday.  In fact overnight Friday into Saturday morning will feature low temperatures in the upper 20's for most areas.  Saturday morning and early afternoon will be dry, but clouds will increase as an ocean storm approaches.  The energy from this storm is current moving through Texas.  This energy is partially responsible for the early season Colorado snow as well.  The energy will move across the Southeast and a new center will form off the coast of North Carolina.  The developing Nor'Easter will increase in strength as it approaches Southern New England.  The exact track and ultimate intensity are still to be determined.  However, a plowable snow for Southern New England appears to be on its way.  The event will begin as rain and then transition to snow.  Here is the "Dominant Precipitation type" forecast for Sunday Morning at 8 am..

GEFS 

 The final threat from this weekend's system will be the winds.  Strong North Easterly winds, aided by the heavy wet snow, will bring down trees and power lines.  It was no fun being without power after Hurricane Irene and next week looks to be unseasonably cool.  Therefore, get some supplies just in case your power goes out.  Batteries, water, blankets, food, and flashlights are a good start.  If you don't lose power don't worry about it, its only October 27.  We've had blizzards on April 1st.  We're in it for the long haul....