Mid-Day Nor'Easter Update

Surface Map Notice the Low Pressure off the EC

The storm is beginning to come together off the North Carolina coast.  Snowfall amounts are verifying above 6 inches for many places in the Mid-Atlantic.  Over 44,000 customers have already lost power in these regions.  This is what is heading our way.  The current temperature in Worcester is 35 degrees.  It may not even begin as rain in many areas.  Timing has sped up so precipitation will begin to fall between 1-3 PM.  The latest guidance has trended every slightly to the east, which will lock in a mainly snow event west I-95.  However inside 95 there will be heavy rain and damaging winds, especially across the Cape and Islands.  These winds may be in excess of Hurricane force (74 mph +).

IR rainbow imagery for GOES

This storm is unprecedented.  I'm starting to think that over a foot of snow is possible in Worcester County.  A nice temperature gradient exists just to our east; cold air is already in place.  The intensity of the system will also supply cold air.  Therefore, a changeover is expect by dusk, but it may occur much sooner.  New York City has also turned over to snow much sooner than expected.  This storm is occurring during a "transition"  season (Fall).  The last major storm to occur during a transition season was the April Fools Blizzard of 1997.  Do I expect 3 ft? No I do not but in that storm amounts started off at 4-8 inches, then went up to 8-12, then 12-18 etc.  Given the real time data from the storm, I think my totals are underdone.  Lets call for 8-14 in Worcester County, 14-20 in the Berkshires, 4-8 for areas north of Bridgewater except for the immediate coast.  A low level wind will pick up the warmth of the Atlantic Ocean and keep the immediate coast mainly rain.  However inland our wind has much more of a northerly component, so I expect very little rain.

2 m temperatures

10 m winds

Tree damage is expected to be widespread and so will power outages.  You might need a battery operated radio to hear the Bruins game tonight.  

As always click to enlarge images and leave a comment if you have any questions or want a specific forecast for a given location.  Or leave a message on facebook.  Be safe in the storm