Mid-Day Nor'Easter Update

Surface Map Notice the Low Pressure off the EC

The storm is beginning to come together off the North Carolina coast.  Snowfall amounts are verifying above 6 inches for many places in the Mid-Atlantic.  Over 44,000 customers have already lost power in these regions.  This is what is heading our way.  The current temperature in Worcester is 35 degrees.  It may not even begin as rain in many areas.  Timing has sped up so precipitation will begin to fall between 1-3 PM.  The latest guidance has trended every slightly to the east, which will lock in a mainly snow event west I-95.  However inside 95 there will be heavy rain and damaging winds, especially across the Cape and Islands.  These winds may be in excess of Hurricane force (74 mph +).

IR rainbow imagery for GOES

This storm is unprecedented.  I'm starting to think that over a foot of snow is possible in Worcester County.  A nice temperature gradient exists just to our east; cold air is already in place.  The intensity of the system will also supply cold air.  Therefore, a changeover is expect by dusk, but it may occur much sooner.  New York City has also turned over to snow much sooner than expected.  This storm is occurring during a "transition"  season (Fall).  The last major storm to occur during a transition season was the April Fools Blizzard of 1997.  Do I expect 3 ft? No I do not but in that storm amounts started off at 4-8 inches, then went up to 8-12, then 12-18 etc.  Given the real time data from the storm, I think my totals are underdone.  Lets call for 8-14 in Worcester County, 14-20 in the Berkshires, 4-8 for areas north of Bridgewater except for the immediate coast.  A low level wind will pick up the warmth of the Atlantic Ocean and keep the immediate coast mainly rain.  However inland our wind has much more of a northerly component, so I expect very little rain.

2 m temperatures

10 m winds

Tree damage is expected to be widespread and so will power outages.  You might need a battery operated radio to hear the Bruins game tonight.  

As always click to enlarge images and leave a comment if you have any questions or want a specific forecast for a given location.  Or leave a message on facebook.  Be safe in the storm

A Major Nor'Easter is on the Way

NAM forecast for 00z/8 PM tomorrow (18z/2 PM model run)

Energy moving across the southeast, ample tropical moisture, and cold air draining into New England are setting the stage for a major October Nor'Easter.  Heavy snow and high winds will create near whiteout conditions tomorrow night.  We are experience and well seasoned in snowstorms around here, but this is an obvious but critical difference; its October.  That means that the leaves are still on the trees which will lead to widespread tree and power line damage across Southern New England.  The combination of the leaves, the saturated ground from recent wet weather, high winds, and weakened trees from Irene will cause numerous power outages tomorrow night.  We can deal with snow; its going to be difficult dealing with snow with downed trees and power lines.

NWS Taunton snowfall forecast

The timing of the storm is terrible.  Tomorrow night is a big party night and many people planned to be on the roads.  If you must travel (and I would advise against travel) you must take precaution.  Bring gloves, a shovel, blankets, and food and water.  Snowfall will be coming down at nearly 1-2 inches per hour at the height of the storm.  These may last for several hours.  Thus, I am forecasting 6-10 inches of snow for the Blackstone Valley, 8-12 as you head further north and west.   Folks down in the Providence to Boston corridor can expect 3-6 inches.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect

The whole event starts as rain.  Clouds increase from South to North throughout the day and rain begins to fall between 2-4 PM.  The changeover to snow occurs as the sun sets or whenever the precip begins to become heavy, whichever occurs first.  Conditions will deteriorate quickly once the changeover occurs.  I advise for people to be off the roads by 6 PM.  The storms clears out by mid morning Sunday.  High winds will rush in behind the storm, so if power is out crews will not get to work until Sunday evening at the earliest.

Finally, I leave you with the National Weather Service in Tauton's final words about the storm...




AS A FINAL NOTE...THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN THE LARGEST

EARLIEST SEASON SNOWSTORM ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS EVENT FOR LATE
OCTOBER.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL NOT BE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.

Any questions, contact me on Facebook or leave a comment.

Blog is Back, So is Snow!

Welcome back to the weather blog!  I'm bringing winter with me.  Sorry to all of you who dislike the S word, but SNOW is on the way.  There are two parts to this story so lets dig in with the current set up.

Surface Weather Map

A series of low pressure systems is riding along a stalled boundary just south of New England.  The first system brought the clouds and light rain yesterday.  Today's system is stronger and is ushering in cold air from Canada.  This is setting the stage for tonight's snowfall  (from another shortwave) and Saturday night's snowfall.  Here is the North American Model (short range) from 8 am this morning for 2 PM.  Notice the 0 degree line is north of Worcester.  This is a decent indicator of the rain/snow line and Northern Worcester County has begun to change over.

Here is the 5 PM forecast

The 0 degree line has fallen to the MA/CT/RI border.  So the changeover will be occurring.  The storm is out of here by about 2 or 3 am so the morning commute shouldn't be too bad.  Watch out for some slick spots due to left over slush on the roadways.  So now the question is how much snow will fall?  North of Worcester I expect a good slug of 2-5 inches of snow.  South of Worcester anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.  The snow will be heavy at times.  The ground is still warm, so its going to take a heavy burst for the snow to accumulate.  This same model is indicating that will happen.  

Tomorrow will feature lots of sunshine, but its only a tease.  Temperatures will peak in the mid 40's just like today.  This cold air mass will still be in place for Saturday.  In fact overnight Friday into Saturday morning will feature low temperatures in the upper 20's for most areas.  Saturday morning and early afternoon will be dry, but clouds will increase as an ocean storm approaches.  The energy from this storm is current moving through Texas.  This energy is partially responsible for the early season Colorado snow as well.  The energy will move across the Southeast and a new center will form off the coast of North Carolina.  The developing Nor'Easter will increase in strength as it approaches Southern New England.  The exact track and ultimate intensity are still to be determined.  However, a plowable snow for Southern New England appears to be on its way.  The event will begin as rain and then transition to snow.  Here is the "Dominant Precipitation type" forecast for Sunday Morning at 8 am..

GEFS 

 The final threat from this weekend's system will be the winds.  Strong North Easterly winds, aided by the heavy wet snow, will bring down trees and power lines.  It was no fun being without power after Hurricane Irene and next week looks to be unseasonably cool.  Therefore, get some supplies just in case your power goes out.  Batteries, water, blankets, food, and flashlights are a good start.  If you don't lose power don't worry about it, its only October 27.  We've had blizzards on April 1st.  We're in it for the long haul....

The Weekly Weather Take

Rather than a washout, its been a sticky weekend.  Dewpoints have been in the mid to upper 60's.   The last two Sunday's have been fall like but today will be a summer like day.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 70's and dewpoints will remain in the mid 60's.  The question most people want to know is when will the humidity break?  Unfortunately the uncomfortable conditions will remain in the region until Friday.  By the weekend temperatures will be in the lower 60's so relief is on the way.  So what is causing this summer like pattern?

500 mb Vorticity (mid level of atmosphere)

A upper level low pressure area has dropped out of the pattern.  In a low pressure area winds blow counter clockwise.  That means that our wind direction is from the south and with a southerly wind comes moist tropical air.   A stalled frontal boundary remains just offshore.  Originally it looked like that boundary would be onshore and that's why the forecasts for this weekend turned out to be incorrect.  Its going to take awhile for this disturbance to move.  It's called a "cut off" low pressure center because it has become "cut off" from the rest of the pattern.  The atmosphere behaves (is) as a fluid and moves in wave like patterns.  These waves are not able to push this system out.  Eventually (Friday) this will get kicked out but the forecast is tricky in regard to timing.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 3 days, courtesy of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)

This is good news for us, but not so much for New York and Pennsylvania who are still recovering from Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee.  

Tomorrow is going to be a nice summer like day.  There is a slight chance of showers early.  Fog will be an issue for the commute but after it burns off temperatures will soar to the low 80's.  Tuesday morning will also be foggy.  Tuesday will be mostly cloudy but the sun will peak out and some area's will have a decent afternoon.  By Wednesday rain will approach the region as the upper level low begins to move east.  Timing is up in the air as the models are not in agreement.  In the long range forecast some early season cold weather is likely 10-14 days out or so.

Tropics Discussion

Two Tropical Storms are currently active in the Atlantic Ocean Basin.  These are the 15th and 16th Tropical cyclones.  However, there have been only 3 Hurricanes.  One of these two (Philippe) may become the 4th Hurricane but both systems ultimately will head out to sea.  I expect an active October so the Hurricane numbers will pick up.  

Rain on the way for a few days

An upper level low pressure area has fallen out of the pattern and has become "cut-off" from the overall flow.  That means fetches of tropical moisture will be streaming into New England for the next 5 days.  Here is a look at the surface

The system will slowly creep towards the Atlantic coast.  The humidity is rough with this because of the tropical moisture it contains.  So for details...a constant threat of showers and thunderstorms for the next 72-96 hours.  Weather tomorrow will be the worst as over 2 inches of rain could fall.  Temperatures will creep into the mid 70's, but you will still need an umbrella or a rain coat.  Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 5 days.

Unfortunately this fits the climatology of years like this and it appears we will be in for a wet fall. 

A Fall Preview

I started a new job this week so I took some time off from the blog to get adjusted and settled on a schedule.  After some early week humidity fall came rushing in yesterday.  At Worcester Airport (elevation roughly 1000 ft) high temperatures did not make it out of the 50's yesterday, stalling at 59.  Here in the Blackstone Valley temperatures were able to climb to the mid 60's.  Today will be more of the same, lots of sun but the north wind will only allow temperatures to creep into the mid 60's.  Tonight mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to again drop into the mid 40's.  Some high clouds may develop to keep temperatures a little higher than last night.  This morning's low at Worcester airport was 44.  By comparison Smithfield, RI dropped to 41 this morning.  This is unseasonably cold weather this early in the season.  Technically, we are still in summer.  In the world of meteorology however, fall begins September 1st.  In our little world winter begins on December 1, spring on March 1, and summer on June 1.

Tomorrow will continue the trend of temperatures in the 60's.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s's.  The skies will be sunny so no weather problems for the Pats home opener.  The weather will be great for fans to get "all lubed up" as Brady suggested during the week.  Lows for Sunday night will again be in the mid 40's.  Monday is a repeat of Sunday.  By Monday night, a system moving offshore may bring some showers to the area.  If this misses we're looking at the dry spell continuing until Thursday/Friday range.  Temperatures return to the 70's for Tuesday through Thursday because High pressure will build in.  The Northeast does not need any heavy rain events so we will take any dry spell we can get.

Tropics Discussion
Hurricane Maria made landfall on the southeast Newfoundland coast yesterday afternoon.  The storm was moving 54 mph with winds of 75 mph.  Hopefully the Christmas trees all survived or that will be another expense this winter.  As of night now there is only one area to watch in the Atlantic and that is off the African coast.  The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 30% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.  Most models are developing the system slowly, taking it west north west generally towards to the islands.  I will say this however, most storms that form as far east as this system usually go out to sea.  The exception is Hurricane Donna of 1960 which brought Hurricane conditions to every state on the east coast.  That's a record that is unmatched in recorded history.  I think this system develops and becomes Ophelia.

Here is a look at October...

I'm using the same analogs as I used for Hurricane season because they helped correctly predict an East Coast Hurricane landfall this year, specifically North Carolina.  These maps are courtesy of NOAA's Physical Science Division of the Earth System Research Lab.  To me it looks like the Jet Stream is going to set up a ridge over the West and a trough in the east.  This keeps the east coast in play for October tropical cyclone weather.  If this continues into winter...well that's a post for another day.

Outdoor Football Forecast
Oakland @ Buffalo 1 PM
Sunny, High 70 winds east 5-8 mph
I've got Oakland, 17-16.  The Raiders defensive front is much more formidable than the Kansas City Chiefs.  Seymour and co. make it difficult on Fitzpatrick in the red area and Oakland ekes out an impressive road victory.

Green Bay @ Carolina 1 PM
Mostly Cloudy, 73 winds northeast 9-11 mph
Packers 38-17.  Aaron Rodgers will have his way with the Panthers secondary, while Newton faces the defending champion defense instead of an NFC West one.

Baltimore @ Tennessee 1 PM
Slight chance of Thunderstorms, 80 south wind 5-10 mph
Baltimore 34-20.  If Baltimore is as good as I think they are, they avoid the letdown against the Titans.

Jacksonville @ New York Jets 1 PM
Partly cloudy, high 70 winds 9-13 mph
Jets 27-6. Even though Tony Romo threw for over 300 on Rex's defense, this is Luke McCown starting on the road.  Jets D will be impressive and  Sanchez will be sharp against the Jags defense.

Arizona @ Washington 1 PM
Mostly Cloudy, high 71 winds 9-13 mph
Washington 31-21.  Rex Grossman should have a good day against an Arizona team coming to the east coast for a 1 PM game.  The Cardinals gave up 422 yards to Cam Newton in his first career start after the lockout.  Kolb will be okay, but the Skins D appears improved.

Seattle @ Pittsburgh 1 PM
Mostly Sunny, High 72 winds 4-8 mph
Steelers 41-14.  A rematch of Super Bowl XL.  Another nightmare for the Seahawks.  Give the Steelers a week 1 mulligan.

Dallas @ San Francisco 4 PM
Mostly Sunny, High 70 winds 7-10 mph
49ers 21-17.  Panic time in big D and a premature crowning of Jim Harbaugh as the next great coach.  I don't really trust Tony Romo to respond until he proves otherwise.  The 49ers have good players and I do think Jim is a better coach than Singletary.  Dallas will be fine but it will wait until the home opener against the Skins next week.

Cincinnati @ Denver 415 PM
Sunny, High 77 calm winds
Denver 34-7.  I think Orton will respond.  The Browns had the Bengals outplayed last week, then the Bengals have to pull a trick play.  This week on the road in a tough place to play the Bengals will struggle to move the football against a decent Bronco's defense.

Houston @ Miami 415 PM
Chance Thunderstorms, High 88 high winds 11-17 mph, gusts over 20
Texans 33-21.  Houston won't be affected by the Heat and humidity in South Florida.  Houston just experienced one of their hottest summers on record.  After the exhaustion suffered by the Miami defense on Monday night, I think Houston will speed up the game and pull away in this one.  Henne will be good, but with Mario Williams coming at him he will have less time to throw.  Careful with kickers in this one, winds could create a problem.

San Diego @ New England 415 PM
See above
Patriots 35-28.  The Patriots offense is just to fast.  Tom Brady has entered the Pedro Martinez zone.  That's where you have to watch every game he starts because NFL history could happen.  Pedro was the same way.  San Diego will throw to keep up, inflating passing numbers.  The key will be 3rd down.

So besides Miami-Houston there doesn't appear to be any weather issues for tomorrow's games.  So set your fantasy lineups accordingly.

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America

Nothing to say today.  Enjoy football and never forget all of those we lost.