A Fall Preview

I started a new job this week so I took some time off from the blog to get adjusted and settled on a schedule.  After some early week humidity fall came rushing in yesterday.  At Worcester Airport (elevation roughly 1000 ft) high temperatures did not make it out of the 50's yesterday, stalling at 59.  Here in the Blackstone Valley temperatures were able to climb to the mid 60's.  Today will be more of the same, lots of sun but the north wind will only allow temperatures to creep into the mid 60's.  Tonight mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to again drop into the mid 40's.  Some high clouds may develop to keep temperatures a little higher than last night.  This morning's low at Worcester airport was 44.  By comparison Smithfield, RI dropped to 41 this morning.  This is unseasonably cold weather this early in the season.  Technically, we are still in summer.  In the world of meteorology however, fall begins September 1st.  In our little world winter begins on December 1, spring on March 1, and summer on June 1.

Tomorrow will continue the trend of temperatures in the 60's.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s's.  The skies will be sunny so no weather problems for the Pats home opener.  The weather will be great for fans to get "all lubed up" as Brady suggested during the week.  Lows for Sunday night will again be in the mid 40's.  Monday is a repeat of Sunday.  By Monday night, a system moving offshore may bring some showers to the area.  If this misses we're looking at the dry spell continuing until Thursday/Friday range.  Temperatures return to the 70's for Tuesday through Thursday because High pressure will build in.  The Northeast does not need any heavy rain events so we will take any dry spell we can get.

Tropics Discussion
Hurricane Maria made landfall on the southeast Newfoundland coast yesterday afternoon.  The storm was moving 54 mph with winds of 75 mph.  Hopefully the Christmas trees all survived or that will be another expense this winter.  As of night now there is only one area to watch in the Atlantic and that is off the African coast.  The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 30% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.  Most models are developing the system slowly, taking it west north west generally towards to the islands.  I will say this however, most storms that form as far east as this system usually go out to sea.  The exception is Hurricane Donna of 1960 which brought Hurricane conditions to every state on the east coast.  That's a record that is unmatched in recorded history.  I think this system develops and becomes Ophelia.

Here is a look at October...

I'm using the same analogs as I used for Hurricane season because they helped correctly predict an East Coast Hurricane landfall this year, specifically North Carolina.  These maps are courtesy of NOAA's Physical Science Division of the Earth System Research Lab.  To me it looks like the Jet Stream is going to set up a ridge over the West and a trough in the east.  This keeps the east coast in play for October tropical cyclone weather.  If this continues into winter...well that's a post for another day.

Outdoor Football Forecast
Oakland @ Buffalo 1 PM
Sunny, High 70 winds east 5-8 mph
I've got Oakland, 17-16.  The Raiders defensive front is much more formidable than the Kansas City Chiefs.  Seymour and co. make it difficult on Fitzpatrick in the red area and Oakland ekes out an impressive road victory.

Green Bay @ Carolina 1 PM
Mostly Cloudy, 73 winds northeast 9-11 mph
Packers 38-17.  Aaron Rodgers will have his way with the Panthers secondary, while Newton faces the defending champion defense instead of an NFC West one.

Baltimore @ Tennessee 1 PM
Slight chance of Thunderstorms, 80 south wind 5-10 mph
Baltimore 34-20.  If Baltimore is as good as I think they are, they avoid the letdown against the Titans.

Jacksonville @ New York Jets 1 PM
Partly cloudy, high 70 winds 9-13 mph
Jets 27-6. Even though Tony Romo threw for over 300 on Rex's defense, this is Luke McCown starting on the road.  Jets D will be impressive and  Sanchez will be sharp against the Jags defense.

Arizona @ Washington 1 PM
Mostly Cloudy, high 71 winds 9-13 mph
Washington 31-21.  Rex Grossman should have a good day against an Arizona team coming to the east coast for a 1 PM game.  The Cardinals gave up 422 yards to Cam Newton in his first career start after the lockout.  Kolb will be okay, but the Skins D appears improved.

Seattle @ Pittsburgh 1 PM
Mostly Sunny, High 72 winds 4-8 mph
Steelers 41-14.  A rematch of Super Bowl XL.  Another nightmare for the Seahawks.  Give the Steelers a week 1 mulligan.

Dallas @ San Francisco 4 PM
Mostly Sunny, High 70 winds 7-10 mph
49ers 21-17.  Panic time in big D and a premature crowning of Jim Harbaugh as the next great coach.  I don't really trust Tony Romo to respond until he proves otherwise.  The 49ers have good players and I do think Jim is a better coach than Singletary.  Dallas will be fine but it will wait until the home opener against the Skins next week.

Cincinnati @ Denver 415 PM
Sunny, High 77 calm winds
Denver 34-7.  I think Orton will respond.  The Browns had the Bengals outplayed last week, then the Bengals have to pull a trick play.  This week on the road in a tough place to play the Bengals will struggle to move the football against a decent Bronco's defense.

Houston @ Miami 415 PM
Chance Thunderstorms, High 88 high winds 11-17 mph, gusts over 20
Texans 33-21.  Houston won't be affected by the Heat and humidity in South Florida.  Houston just experienced one of their hottest summers on record.  After the exhaustion suffered by the Miami defense on Monday night, I think Houston will speed up the game and pull away in this one.  Henne will be good, but with Mario Williams coming at him he will have less time to throw.  Careful with kickers in this one, winds could create a problem.

San Diego @ New England 415 PM
See above
Patriots 35-28.  The Patriots offense is just to fast.  Tom Brady has entered the Pedro Martinez zone.  That's where you have to watch every game he starts because NFL history could happen.  Pedro was the same way.  San Diego will throw to keep up, inflating passing numbers.  The key will be 3rd down.

So besides Miami-Houston there doesn't appear to be any weather issues for tomorrow's games.  So set your fantasy lineups accordingly.

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