Strong Winds to Bitter Cold to...A Real Snow Event?

It has been a wild day so far across Southern New England.  Snow squalls caused some travel issues this morning but the main story is the strong winds.  A *High Wind Warning* continues until 7 PM this evening.  The wind will relent somewhat this evening and overnight.   Temperatures will fall into the low teens by Tuesday morning and will only rebound into the low to mid 20's Tuesday afternoon.   The coldest air of the week arrives on Wednesday morning with lows in the single digits.  It will help set the table for a probable plowable snow event Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  

NWS Boston Skywarn Twitter Post of Damage in Springfield, MA

As of 402 PM, 63926 customers were without power in Massachusetts.  The worst is happening right now.  You can find the latest wind reports here and the latest wind damage reports here.  The highest gust I have seen so far is 69 MPH in Cambridge, MA.  Worcester has reached 60 MPH and Mendon has reached 59 MPH.   The strongest wind gusts will diminish shortly after sunset.  Winds will remain gusty, but the power outages and tree damage should begin to slow down.  

NWS NDFD Minimum Temperature Forecast Tuesday AM (image WeatherModels.com)

It will be sunny and breezy tomorrow.  Although the threat for damaging winds decrease tomorrow, garbage and recycling bins will likely be blown around again.  The coldest air of the week arrives Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  By 7 AM Wednesday, wind chill temperatures will -10 to -15 below.

12z EURO 2 m Wind Chill Temperatures Wed 7 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

We then turn our attention to a clipper system them will emerge out of the Great Lakes, and perhaps strengthen as it passes South of New England.  Most storms have moved through New England this season, which means a change over to rain, warm aloft, and other negative snow factors.  Although this system may be moisture starved, the most recent computer guidance has a up to a 0.5" of precipitation by Thursday morning.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 7 PM

That works out to 3-5" of snow.  However, with temperatures in the teens Wednesday evening and favorable snow growth in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere, that 3-5" could turn out to be more like 5-10".  There will be no mixing concerns and this snow will be powder.  The biggest questions is how much moisture/forcing will be available to produce snow.  The NAM is on the lighter side, while the EURO is on the juicer side.

18z NAM 3km Hi-res Simulated Radar Wednesday 9 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

 I will have more on this tomorrow and Wednesday.  

-ZG