High Wind Warning Headlines Sunday Weather Discussion

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

With most of Sunday's precipitation behind us, a soggy Southern New England now must prepare for strong winds tonight through Monday evening.  Winds out of the W and NW will be sustained at 20-40 MPH with gusts as high as 65 MPH possible.  There is a real threat for damage to trees, power lines, and property.  For that reason, the National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *High Wind Warning* from 10 PM this evening until 7 PM Monday evening.  Traveling will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

NWS Boston Sunday Early PM Headlines (click to enlarge)

General Overview
Surface low pressure is moving through Southeastern New England.  Winds out of the northeast are allowing for the continuous drizzle this afternoon.  This low is part of a larger storm system that is responsible for severe weather and flooding deaths in parts of the south, along with blizzard conditions in the Midwest and Great Lakes.  This is part of the same storm system that brought snow flurries to Los Angeles and Las Vegas during the week. 

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Sunday 7 PM

As the parent low decays in Southeastern Ontario, the secondary low (which is really an open wave) that brought the rain to New England will begin to absorb energy from the parent low as it tracks in the Canadian  Maritimes.  The secondary low will deepen into a strong storm with a pressure of around 970 mb.  At the same time, strong, broad high pressure will descend into the Upper Midwest.  It will have pressure around 1040 mb. 

WPC Surface Fronts.Precipitation Monday 1 PM

Winds have not been a major problem so far this winter because temperatures have often increased from the surface into the lowest levels of the atmosphere.  This is known as an inversion and acts as a barrier to keep the strongest low-level winds above our heads.  This will not be the case tomorrow.  Cold, dry arctic air will begin spilling in from the Northwest this evening.  This is an efficient way for the low-level winds to reach the surface. 

Timing & Impacts
Temperatures this evening will fall from the low 40's to the upper 20's by morning.  Temperatures will stay in the 20s for most of the day in Worcester County and Northeast MA.  Temperatures will rise into the low 30's across Southeast MA.  It will feel much colder thanks to the roaring winds.  Wind chill values will be in the mid to upper teens in Western and Central MA and low 20's across Eastern MA.

12z EURO(1 hr) 2 m Wind Chill Temperatures Monday 2 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Winds tonight will begin to increase around 10 PM.  Light sleepers are in for a rough night as wind gusts will slowly increase from 30 MPH to 45 MPH by morning.  The potential overnight is for isolated to perhaps scattered power outages from downed tree limbs.  There is also the potential for snow squalls that will hit at various times overnight through the morning commute.

20z HRRR Simulated Radar Monday 5-9 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

The snow squalls will not only cause briefly hazardous travel conditions but also will serve as the entrance music for the main event.  The main event is sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with winds gusts of 45-65 MPH from 10 AM to 6 PM.  Scattered to widespread tree and powerline damage is likely.   Wind gusts of 60+ MPH are most likely between 1-4 PM. 

NWS Max Wind Gusts Forecast

The winds will only relent somewhat on Tuesday.  Temperatures will also be colder, with wind chill temperature near or just below 0 in the morning and will not improve much during the day.  The coldest day of the week is Wednesday, with wind chills -10 to -15 below Wednesday morning.   If your power does go out, it may be a few days for it to come back on.  These cold temperatures will be living in unheated buildings unrealistic so you may want to consider a backup plan, just in case. 

Other Thoughts
I think tomorrow's event will be more widespread in magnitude thanks to the amount of precipitation that has fallen in Southern New England since last summer.  Just in Southern Worcester County, observations taken at Worcester Airport and the Blackstone River at Sutton Street/Providence Road in Northbridge show anomalies of + 15.00" since July 1, 2018.

These anomalies exist all across Southern New England.  The Quabbin reservoir is 100.6 % full and the Wachusett reservoir is 93% full.  It wasn't all that long ago (2-3 years) that moderate to major drought conditions were widespread in New England. 

MWRA Quabbin Water Levels Jan 2000-2018

While that is good, the water table is nearly full.  The soil has lots of moisture.  Again, that is positive on the agricultural side it will also make trees uproot more easily.  March and April are also months where we tend to get a lot of rain.  It will be interesting to see if the precipitation trend continues.  If it does, big river flooding trouble is in our future.  In the meantime, stay safe tomorrow. 

-Zack Green