Rain Tonight, Close Call Thursday

So here we go again!  Low pressure off the Carolina coast is tracking Northeast towards New England.  At least two more areas of low pressure will follow this Thursday and Friday,  Here is the surface chart

WPC Surface Analysis 2 PM 

The rain tonight will be heavy at times especially in Southeastern MA.  Here is the northeast regional radar loop.  There is a noticeable expansion of moisture in CT.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop

The rain sticks around until 11 PM in CT, midnight Southeastern MA.  In Central and Northeastern MA some showers will stick around through 5 AM.  With the rain is the cold temperatures.  Outside of CT and RI most of Massachusetts is in the 40s.

RTMA 2 M temps 4 PM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight drop down to the low 40s.  There will not be much of a rebound on Thursday.  A mini spring nor'easter will develop from the low I circled in the Great Lakes in the image above.  Here is the water vapor satellite that shows the general flow through the Eastern US

GOES_Composite Water Vapor Satellite Loop (NOAA)

Showers return mid morning tomorrow.  The biggest threat for heavy rain tomorrow is Eastern MA closer to the coast.  Winds will also gust up to 30 MPH near the coast so it will feel like its about 40 tomorrow in Plymouth, Boston, Gloucester etc.  Showers and some steady rain will extend back into RI and Worcester County tomorrow afternoon as well.  The good news with this system is some guidance is taking it just far enough offshore that its just some rain and drizzle.  But either way tomorrow is another miserable May day.

I am finally seeing some signs of warmth but its not for another week or so.  For now I'll settle for a glimpse of the sun on Saturday afternoon and maybe 60-65 Sunday?  Fingers crossed.

-Zack Green

Wednesday May 4, 2016 Daily Weather Briefing

Today we have to start in Canada where a devastating wild fire has forced the evacuation of 80,000 residents in Fort McMurray, Alberta.  Local officials this morning said one neighborhood of 700 houses is 80% destroyed. Approximately 2200 people live in that neighborhood and are now homeless.  The CBC is reporting that the worst of this fire is not over.

CBC photo taken by Terry Realth

Thousands of fire fighters are on their way to battle this blaze and save what is left of the community.  As with every disaster there are signs of human compassion.  The Huffington Post is reporting that other residents of Alberta are tweeting and using facebook to let people know they have rooms in their homes, meals, cash and water.  Often we wonder what is wrong with the world and we believe it is a terrible place.  Each and every time disaster hits humans step up (especially Americans and Canadians).

Wikipedia map of Fort McMurray

Unfortunately conditions will not improve today.  The same weather pattern leading to gray and rain in the east US is responsible for the record heat and dry conditions in Alberta.  Via the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System we see this for today.  Note Fort McMurray is in the Northwest corner of Alberta (second province in from Pacific

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System May 4, 2016

The 500 mb ridge says it all.  It is anomalously amplified high into Western Canada

12z NAM 500 mb vort, heights 2 PM Wed (image NCEP/NOAA)

Yesterday set a record high temperature of 90 F,  Today will again approach 90 which is record territory for May 4

12z RGEM 2 m temps Alberta 4 PM EST (2 PM MDT)  (image Weatherberll)

I really don't see all that much rainfall coming.  Temperatures will return to normal next week.  Until then godspeed to everyone battling this blaze.

Elsewhere it is relatively quiet.  Rain remains in the Northeast.  It doesn't look as impressive as the models promised yesterday.  That is the frustrating part of these blocks.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

The latest high resolution guidance keeps showers rest until 4-5 PM before filling in.  Low pressure will ride along the cold front and produce up to 0.5 inch of rain back through Central Mass and perhaps an inch or more on the Cape and Islands.

WPC Surface Analysis 8 AM

The biggest threat for severe weather is also associated with this cold front in Southern Florida.  The biggest threat is damaging wind gusts but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

SPC Day 1 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Here is the radar out of the Southeast

NWS Southeast US Regional Radar Loop

I'm still looking for a good this day in weather history.

-Zack Green

May Weather Continues Headache for Local Sports Teams

One of the great things about living in Southern New England is there are four distinct seasons.  Summers usually lasts June to early September and we get everything in moderation.  There is some severe weather, some tropical threats, some heat and some humidity. We can also get 80 with a dew point of 55 which is perfect.  Fall is the best.  Temperatures in the 50-60s, football, Thanksgiving, the foliage, football and the occasional nor'easter.  Winter is winter.  We are known for it and we embrace it.  I like all of these seasons.  I don't really like spring.  It is transitional from the depths of winter straight into summer.  We can get rain for 10 days straight and not see the sun for weeks.  April gets a bad rap but May is the brutal month in my opinion.  Its so close to summer but can seem so far away.

Early May 2016 fits in nicely with some of its brutal counterparts.  The one that sticks out in my mind is 2006.  The SWCL East was brutally competitive in baseball that season with 5 teams battling for the crown.  We (Northbridge) went on a hot streak in early May before the rains brought the season to crashing halt.  We were suppose to play Millbury but the game was postponed 4 times.  We finally made the game up on Memorial Day weekend and by that time the outright league title was on the line.  Thanks to Dave Wallen's 400 ft (guesstimate) blast to RF in the 1st inning we cruised to a 11-4 win and the crown.  We were able to win because of pitching.  The last two weeks of the season we played something like 8 games in 11 days.

NOAA ESRL Physical Science Division May 2006 precipitation anomaly vs 1981-2010 avg

I pulled the reanalysis from May 16, 2006 at 8 AM and its not surprising what I found.

May 16, 2006 NOAA NWS NCEP reanalysis 8 AM

Notice the top right panel.  This is the 500 mb heights (about 18000 up in atmosphere).  I love using 500 mb to pick out flow, shortwaves etc.  Well you see areas of low pressure on each coast and a ridge of high pressure in the center of the country.  Look at the 500 mb forecast for Friday at 2 PM.  Same general omega shape

18z GFS 500 mb vort 72 hour valid Friday 2 PM (image NCEP)

 I don't foresee May 2006 because that ridge was a bit further west and so was the trough.  That enabled the eastern trough to really tap Gulf of Mexico moisture and stream it up the coast.  Springtime can become "blocky" in the atmosphere so system tend to prolong themselves.  Last May we were caught in drought conditions!  It was warm and dry so spring does not always suck like this.  I feel for athletic directors and pitching coaches who have to figure out fields and rotations given all these cancellations.  I had a lot of the good junior pitchers on the BVT staff as freshman so I didn't worry about rain outs because I had 4 arms I could go to.  It gets a lot more tricky at the varsity level.  Plus game have to finish before Memorial Day to be counted for district playoffs.

As for tomorrow the AM looks alright.  Here is the simulated radar as of 9 AM

20z 24 hr HRRRX  ERSL Simulated radar valid 9 AM Friday (image Weatherbell)

Plenty of moisture available and it will find its way into Southeastern New England tomorrow afternoon.  Here is the 3 PM radar

18z NAM hires simulated radar 3 PM Wed (image Weatherbell)

As of now I think games can be played Thursday but not tomorrow unless its lacrosse on turf.  There will still be showers on Thursday but at the moment it looks a lot better than Friday.  These spring upper lows can be a headache to forecast because I know there is going to be steady rain somewhere but sometimes it ends up 50 miles from where I think a few days out.  That upper air pattern isn't favorable so my advice is try and play Thursday because you probably cannot go tomorrow or Friday.  Doubleheaders anyone?  To top it off temperatures are in the 50s

Northeast NWS forecast high temperatures Wednesday (image Weatherbell)

Are you a coach, athletic director or connected to high school sports and want more information?  Reach out to me on twitter @zgreenwx or find me on facebook or email me zgreenwx@gmail.com

-Zack Green

On This Day 1999- Oklahoma City EF-5 Tornado

Growing up as a kid I was rarely afraid of the weather.  I'd run to the windows to watch big wind take down trees and branches.  I could sit outside in a blizzard for 8 hours at time.  Hurricane Bertha? Yup I was running outside in the pouring rain.  One thing that did make me run to the basement was tornadoes.  Now we never had one in Northbridge but there were tornado watches in May of 1998 (May 31 to be exact) that brought some nasty hail and winds that had me running for cover.  But I still wanted to see a tornado up until May 3, 1999.  

On May 3, 1999 a massive F5 tornado struck Southern Oklahoma City and its surrounding suburbs.  Up until the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of the April 27. 2011 outbreak  and then the Joplin tornado of May 2011(review coming in a few weeks) this was the only tornado to cause $1 billion in damage on its own.  It was the deadliest tornado since 1979 at the time and showed how vulnerable urban areas are to tornadoes.

ABC News photo of 1999 OKC tornado

At 7 AM local time on May 3 warm humid air was present from Central Texas up through Central Oklahoma into Kansas.  Unlike some of the recent big severe weather outbreaks the threat was initially not judged to be high.  

NWS Norman May 3-4, 1999 tornado outbreak summary 

At the upper levels there was a lot going on.  A board 500 mb trough was moving west.  Embedded in this flow were several shortwaves.   Notice the 130 kt jet streak near Oregon.  As this jet streak dove south towards Arizona the shortwaves in New Mexico and Colorado accelerated into this unstable air mass.  First the 500 mb chart alone with the shortwave circled

5-3-1999 500 mb obs heights temps from NWS Norman event review

Adding in some other levels we see a lot going on in the west.  The purple line shows the 250 mb upper level jet diving through Western Oklahoma and Kansas intersecting the surface dry line which extends from the Dakota's into Texas.  As the shortwave crossed the dry line and the upper level jet into the warm moist air storms were able to explode.  Don't worry if you can't read this graphic- I have my degree and it took me a half hour to realize what is going on in this picture.

Surface and Upper Air Features May 3, 1999 

By 345 PM local time dew points were now 70-75 F over central OK as storms began to fire.

NWS Norman reanalysis 345 PM 5-3-1999

Here is the radar loop of the thunderstorms that day.  The tornado devastated the community of Bridge Creek, OK shortly after 630 PM.  

Norman, OK NWS radar loop 5/3/99

The NWS  issued a tornado emergency around 7 PM for Moore, OK and Southern Oklahoma City.  

NWS Norman tornado emergency 5/3/1999

A total of 40 people died in Oklahoma and there was $1 billion in damage.  Please check out the NWS official page for damage photos and more information about this storm.  I am happy to report I no longer run from tornadoes and in fact will chase them if I am able to.  I have yet to see one.  The fact remains no meteorological event can destroy a community faster than a tornado (earthquakes, tsunamis are natural disasters).

-Zack Green

Rain to Impact AM Commute

A wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary will slide south of New England this morning.  The steady heavy rain will end by 9 AM but left over showers and drizzle will make the rest of Tuesday rather bleak.  Avoiding a turn to negative town we need the precipitation and this well help green everything up.  That said I wouldn't want to be a high school athletic director trying to juggle field, teams, make up dates etc.

Current Conditions
Here is the northeast regional radar as of 4 AM

NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop

That is a lot of moisture on the radar.  The good news is the system is moving along a good clip.  Here is the northeast surface map

WPC Northeast Surface Analysis 2 AM

This system has a winterish look to it on satellite but you can see how quickly it is moving

GOES_East Water Vapor Loop 315 AM (NOAA)

Moving forward lets time this system out.  At 8 AM all of Southern New England is still raining

7z HRRR simulated radar 8 AM (Image Weatherbell)

We are improving by noon time although some of the rain may linger along the South Coast of RI and the Cape/Islands

7z HRRR simulated radar 12 PM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures on the short range high resolutions guidance are higher than current forecasts.  This afternoon.  I'm going to blend the NWS forecast of upper 40s/low 50s with the NAM hires and the HRRR forecast of mid to upper 50s and say temps in general rise to about 55 this afternoon.  North of the Pike we can climb higher.

06z NAM Hires 2 m temps 4 PM (image Weatherbell)

An unsettled pattern remains into the weekend.  It will not rain the entire time but clouds and drizzle will be more common than breaks of sun.

Coming later today
1) National Outlook
2) A look back at the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City EF-5 tornado

-Zack Green

Hurricane Season Begins in Less Than A Month

The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially open for business on June 1.  The 2016 season has actually already seen its first Hurricane.  In January Hurricane Alex developed from a non-tropical low and impacted the Azores Islands in the northeast Atlantic.  Alex is a historically rare hurricane as the month of January has featured only 5 tropical cyclones in the last 75+ years.  The last time a hurricane formed in January was 1938 (in 1955 Hurricane Alice formed on New Years Eve and continued into January).

Alex Lamers tweet, Eric Blake info

The truth is this has no impact on the 2016 season other than the fact that there will be at least 1 more named storm and hurricane than anyone thought.  Here is a summary of the seasonal outlooks from the major players. (NOAA has yet to release its outlook as of this post)

Hurricane forecasts

The average of all forecasts including the historical average is 13 total storms, 7 Hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.  Taking away Alex we are looking a 12, 6, and 3.   While this is a far cry from the active seasons from 1995-2012 it is in line with some of the historical seasons following a strong El Nino.  Historically we can look at 1958, 1966, 1973, 1983, 1988 and 1998 for some guidance.  Note ACE is Accumulated Cyclone Energy which tries measures the amount of energy a given cyclone produces.  For more see here

Analogs for 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

So this isn't all that helpful given 1973 and especially 1983.  In both 1973 and 1983 the Atlantic was in its full blown negative or cold phase.  The Atlantic is trending that way now but its not quite there yet.  By the same measure 1998 was in the beginning of the Atlantic active era. Here is the current global sea surface temperature anomalies

NOAA/OSPO Sea surface temperature anomalies 5.2.2016

A few things stand out here.  First the blues appearing along the equator look to be the beginning of a La Nina event.  Second the tropical Atlantic is warm but the North Atlantic is cold.  It is important to remember that ocean currents in the Eastern Atlantic come from the North.  In the Western Atlantic they come from the south.  So it stands to reason that the tropical Atlantic will cool off somewhat this summer.  The La Nina is important because it would allow for favorable conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico due to increased upward motion (cloud growth).  One climate model is bullish on La Nina

CFS v2 average of last 30 runs SSTA for August (Image Weatherbell)

If this verifies one has to like the chances of an above average Hurricane/Major hurricane/ACE forecast.  I find predicting landfall to be difficult if not impossible but I would favor the Gulf from Corpus Christi to the Florida Keys as my main areas to watch.   But as always it only takes 1 storm to define a season.  I'm thinking 12 storms 7 Hurricanes 3 Major Hurricanes with an ACE of around 115.  For good measure I think a major hurricane hits the Gulf Coast ending the 11 year major hurricane drought.

-Zack Green

Monday May 2, 2016 Weather Briefing

When we last talked on Friday there was a severe weather outbreak underway in the Southern Plains.  The SPC did a nice job with its forecast although they could should  have extended the slight chance all the way into Alabama.

SPC Day 1 2 AM outlook with actual reports for Friday 4/29/16

The big story over the weekend and into today is heavy rainfall in Texas and Louisiana that has led to flash flooding.  As much as 5-10" of rain has already fallen according to radar estimates out of Lake Charles, LA

Estimated precip 920 PM Wednesday to now (image NOAA/NWS Lake Charles radar)

Currently there are some nasty thunderstorms just offshore.  If these were onshore than build an ark.  Still there is a threat for increasing showers and thunderstorms as the day goes on.

Lake Charles Loop 

This line of showers and storms will push towards New Orleans which is under a flash flood watch themselves.   We know the water trouble in New Orleans.  Even a heavy rain shower or thunderstorm that overstays it welcome in the Crescent City causes flooding problems.  So what is causing these slow moving thunderstorms?  First let's take a look at the surface chart.

WPC surface analysis 8 am 

We see the cold front which is responsible for the precipitation in Louisiana etends into the Ohio Valley where it is a messy stationary warm front with waves of low pressure on it.  The warm front will try to lift into New England but it will get caught up near the South Coast.  A wave of low pressure will move along the front bring a good soaking rain late this morning/early afternoon.  The rain clears later this afternoon but a rather miserable early evening results with drizzle and cool temperatures.  Baseball, softball and lacrosse practice will have a bite if the fields are puddle free.

16z HRRR 12 PM simulated radar (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures end up around 50 (give a few degrees south of Pike, take a few north of Pike).  This pattern will continue for the next several days.  The reason is a developing Omega block pattern over the US.  Right now there is a low pressure trough off the west coast, a low pressure trough in the northeast and a ridge of high pressure in the Rockies.  This has created congestion in the eastern half of the country as cold fronts are slow to exit.  As a result of this the severe threat today lines up well with the surface cold front.

SPC Day 1 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook 

The flash flooding risk also lines up well with this.

WPC excessive rainfall outlook 5/2/2016

Some high resolution guidance suggests some of the heavier rains are back towards Nashville and Western KY/TN so that is also something to keep an eye on.  In general a good 2-4" with locally higher amounts will fall.  In New England we are looking at up to 0.5" but generally around 0.25".

In terms of temperatures I've tried to avoid turning on my heat but it is raw outside.  Despite the rain in parts of the south temperatures still climb into the upper 60s low 70s.  If you want warmth Florida or the deserts of Arizona/California are the place to go.  In the Midwest/Plains it is seasonable if not slightly below average.

NWS NDFD national high temperature forecast Monday May 2 (image Weatherbell)

This Day in Weather History
The latest freeze on record occurred in parts of North Carolina damaging crops. Temperatures dropped to 29 in Raleigh and 32 in Greensboro on this day in 1963.  Source NWS Raleigh climate records page.

-Zack Green