Heavy Rain Tuesday AM in Southern New England

A cold front will push heavy rain across the Northeast and Southern New England Tuesday AM.  This rain will impact the second half of the morning commute in Eastern MA.  Lets take a quick look at the northeast surface chart

WPC surface analysis 5 PM 

Southerly flow in front of this cold front is helping to transport warm moist air into the northeast.  A quick glance at the regional radar confirms this

NWS Northeast regional radar 

By morning all that activity will be moving into New England.  People who head to Boston before 8 AM will just have to deal with the normal headache traffic unless some moron decides to play bumper cars on the Pike or 93.  Here is the simulated radar as of 8 AM

24 hr 18z HRRR simulated radar valid 8 AM (image Weatherbell)

This model is hinting at some snow in upstate New York on the backside of this.  I wouldn't anticipate accumulation but these April snow threats are getting old.  The rain will continue through mid afternoon but it should be done before the Red Sox game (and Mets, Phillies, Nats - see this post).  Temperatures aren't all that bad despite the rain.  Low 50's will accompany the rain.  Temperatures will drop behind the cold front Tuesday night.

WPC Tuesday 8 PM surface forecast

The good news is we should get back up near 70 this weekend.  Total rainfall is in general 0.5 to 1.25" of rain with isolated higher amounts.

18z Hires NAM total precipitation through 8 PM Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

Enjoy your night.

-Zack Green

Texas Declares War on Hail

(Source)- Thousands of severe hailstorms pelt the U.S. each year,​causing, on average, $1 billion in damage to crops and property. The expense is so extreme that a few years ago Texas, eager to find ways to reduce insured losses, declared a war on hail.

Mother Nature wasn’t listening. The state has already been pummeled twice this year by major hailstorms, and the season has only just begun.

Because few lives are lost to hail, the storms don’t attract as much attention as tornadoes or hurricanes, but they occur more frequently, last longer and cover wider areas, leading to extensive and expensive damage.

The icy projectiles can puncture roofs, shatter windshields, shred crops and, on rare occasion, take lives. Since 1990, hail has killed 14 people in the U.S. and injured more than 1,000, according to statistics kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

You've heard of the war on drugs, the war on Christmas and even Jason Whitlocks new war on domestic violence (figure that one out).  What you haven't heard of is Texas' war on hail.   Between 1999 and 2011 Texas lost $10.1 billion in insurance losses to hail damage.  This is something not limited to just Texas either.  Hail in the Great Plains and Midwest is legendary.  The largest stone ever recorded fell in Vivian, SD in 2010.  It measured 7.9" in diameter and 18.62" of circumference.  It weighed 1.94 lbs.  

September 2010 hailstone from Vivian, SD (image KELO)

The northeast is not immune to these storms either.  On August 4, 2015 a super cell thunderstorm dropped 2" in diameter hail in Boston smashing car windows.

As anyone who has ever had a smashed windshield it sucks.  Thank god for JN Phillips and parking lot service to replace windshields.  Of course if an 8" in diameter hailstone falls on your car you are going to need more than just JN Phillips to fix the damage.  Its safe to say Texas lost the battle today but keep fighting friends.

DFW NBC 5 hail damage photo 

Via FOX4

Severe Thunderstorms impacting Southern Plains, Southeast

There have been several tornado warnings in Texas today as thunderstorms capable of producing baseball sized hail are ripping through Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.  The tornado threat is low but not zero.  As of 612 EDT a tornado warning is up for Pickton, TX. Large hail, strong winds and lightning remain the primary threats.  Via Marcus Diaz @TheTXWxChaser

That type of hail can knock a grown adult out not to mention the damage this will do cars and poorly constructed buildings such as barns.  Here is the Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook

SPC day 1 thunderstorm outlook 

Here is the radar in the Mississippi River Valley/Southern Plains

NWS South Plains regional radar

NWS Southern Mississippi River Valley regional radar 

These storms will progress into Alabama and Georgia tonight. Right now it is heavy rain in Alabama but the severe threat will increase as the cold front moves east.  The warm moist Gulf of Mexico air will continue to clash with the cold Canadian air in the Midwest.  As a result there could be a few tornadoes tonight.  Turn on those severe weather alerts on your cell phone just in case.  Night time tornadoes produced the majority of tornado deaths.  The simulated radar for 4 AM shows a nasty line of thunderstorms bearing down on New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola.

20z HRRR simulated radar 4 AM EST (image Weatherbell)

The severe weather threat lessens as this cold front pushes offshore tomorrow.

-Zack Green

MLB Weekday Series Weather Outlook

The geniuses who make the MLB schedule had one hell of an opening week.  From snow in Chicago to cold rain in Cleveland, New York and Washington it was truly miserable.  Meanwhile the Padres and the Dodgers opened up against one another and Houston opened in New York.  The weather generally turns around mid April in the North so its not like you need to fool around with the schedule all the much.  On to the forecast

Weekday Series

There is a slight chance of showers in Toronto, Seattle and Houston so I would expect the roofs to be closed tonight (Houston, Seattle) and tomorrow (all three).  Houston will have a chance of severe weather this afternoon but that will lessen this evening.  

Northeastern Outlook

Boston-Baltimore, Philadelphia-San Diego, Washington-Atlanta, New York (NL)-Miami

A cold front will cross the northeast on Tuesday,  That makes Monday the pick of the week for all the northeastern series through Thursday.  Southerly winds will flip to the North-Northwest allowing for temperatures to crash into the 40s and 50s instead of 60s and 70s.  There will also be a chance of precipitation in Boston on Tuesday albeit a small chance.  Most of the rain should clear the coast by mid afternoon.  Wednesday is dry but chilly.  Here is the afternoon surface chart

Monday Afternoon 2 PM surface analysis (image credit Weather Prediction Center/WPC)

Here is the Tuesday forecast for 8 PM EST

WPC surface forecast Tuesday 8 PM

Keeping these surface images in mind let's transition to the Midwest forecast

Midwestern Outlook

Detroit-Pittsburgh, Minnesota-Chicago (AL), St. Louis-Milwaukee, Chicago (NL)-Cincinnati

Detroit had an early start today so it avoided the sharp temperature drop that occurred as the cold front passed through.  Temperatures will be below average in Minnesota, Chicago and St. Louis today though they will be dry.  Here is a look at the 3 PM (2 PM central temps) courtesy of Weatherbell.

2 m temperatures Monday 3 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

Tuesday is also below average in the Midwest but only Detroit plays and they get going at 1 PM.  The temperature will struggle to get out of the 40s but it will be dry.  Its much warmer in Minneapolis and St. Louis on Wednesday but it stays in the upper 40s and lower 50s in Chicago and Detroit.  Although slightly warmer in Chicago and Detroit on Thursday winds off the lakes keep it cooler than Minnesota and St. Louis.  

Western Outlook

Oakland-Los Angeles (AL), Los Angeles (NL)-Arizona, Colorado-San Francisco 

The weather will be very pleasant in Oakland for this series.  First pitch temperatures will be near 60 with mostly clear skies.  Wednesday is a 1230 PM first pitch so temperatures will be in the upper 60s.  Down in LA  the weather is 70 and mostly sunny for each game.  Heading to the Rockies it will be warm in the afternoon (mid 70s) but dropping into the low 60s/upper 50s for gametime.  

Looking ahead to the weekend the only potential issues I see at the moment are in Texas and St. Louis.  A potent system will develop out of the Rockies late this week and may cause some mischief Saturday and Sunday.  Full update Thursday for those games.  

Tweet me @zgreenwx with questions, comments and concerns.

-Zack Green

Gusty Winds and Heavy Rain Today

The national weather service has issued a Wind Advisory from 2-8 PM for Eastern MA, the Cape & Islands, Southern Worcester County and Rhode Island.

NWS Boston headlines

This storm continues the active weather pattern of the last few weeks across the northeast. A triple point low will move northeast into Ontario/Quebec.  Notice the three fronts on the surface chart.  The first has temporarily (sorry) kicked the below average cold back to Canada. With this is the first slug of rain.

WPC surface analysis 8 am

The second boundary contains the heaviest downpours and perhaps some thunderstorms.  Here is the regional radar.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar

It's pouring in Maryland and SE Pennsylvania.  Philly is next for the heavy downpours. NYC gets it between 1-2 PM while New England taps the strong low level energy and is dumped on all afternoon.  The simulated radar at 4 pm

14z HRRR simulated radar 4 pm (image weatherbell)

As the low level energy is tapped winds can gust 40-50 mph.  This is especially true in Southern CT, RI, Southeastern Worcester County up along 495 and east to the coast.

NWS Boston Maximum wind gusts 

Total rainfall is going to end up 1-2" in Southern New England.  There looks to be a bullseye across the Green and White Mountains which combined with the snow melt could lead to river flooding.

WPC total 48 hr precipitation forecast through Sat 8 am

Finally without trying to piss off everyone I mentioned that these 50s were temporary.  That is because we are back in the 30s and 40s this weekend.  It is possible we see some snow.

WPC surface forecast 8 am Saturday

Where is spring? That's a good question.  Perhaps some warmer weather toward the middle and end of next week. I'll have more on the potential snow as that situation evolves.

-Zack Green

Spring Snow Round 2

Another round of snow will impact the Monday AM commute.  A clipper system will take a similar track as this mornings storm and it will drop similar amounts of snow. A Winter weather advisory has been issued.

NWS Boston headlines

Snow moves in from west to east around 3-4 AM.

16z 24 hrs HRRR simulated radar 4 AM

Snow continues through early afternoon.  All told given the difficulty of snow accumulation in early April we can expect around 3-5".

NWS  Boston snow total forecast

I think the roads will be slick in the AM.  I don't think schools need to cancel but they may have a 2 hr delay.  Winds will not be as strong as they are today.  If anything changes I'll let you know.

-Zack Green

Wild Weather Tonight and Sunday

Good afternoon my friends. A rare late season Arctic outbreak will lead to some wild weather in Southern New England.  Vicious snowsqualls with winds gusting as high as 60-70 mph are likely as an Arctic clippers explodes offshore tonight.  Thundersnow is likely and this can lead to 2-4" of snow in a short timeframe.  Let's break this down

General overview
Eastern MA including Southern Worcester county and NE CT and RI are under a high wind watch. Southern CT has a high wind warning while the rest of the region is under a wind advisory

http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=all

Here is the clippers as of 11 am.  This morning's rain was a result of low pressure riding along the cold front offshore.  Temperatures will warm to the low 50s as another boundary swings through early this evening. 

WPC surface analysis 11 am

The clipper is in the Great lakes region.  As the boundary in western New York moves through New England this evening thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds will accompany it.  At the upper levels we see an energetic atmosphere primed for mischief.  Here is the mid level of the atmosphere

12z NAM 500 mbps vortex valid 2 am (image NCEP)

Forecast

Now let's take a look at some radar simulations.  First is 8 PM tonight.  A line of showers and thunderstorms will progress across Western New England and arrive in Worcester County between 7-8 PM.

17z HRRR STIMULATED RADAR (image weatherbell)

These storms will drop small hail.  The precipitation will return around 1-2 AM.  This is when the clipper will be approaching the Southern New England waters. The storm will rapidly intensify.  Here is the 3 am simulated radar.

17z HRRR Simulated radar 3 am (image weatherbell)

Winds will be able to gust 45-65 mph at this time.  That is easily enough to knock down trees and powerlines.  Snow totals will be generally light but in the heavy thundersnow bands up to 4" may fall. Snow ends around 9-10 am.  This is enough for a winter weather advisory

NWS boston watches and warnings

Peak winds are around 5-11 am.  This is a aanomalous weather pattern so there could be a surprise or two. Another clipper is on the way for Monday.  I'll have more on that tomorrow. By the way it will be cold over the next few days. Bundle up!

 

-Zack Green