Saturday Night Thoughts On Hurricane Henri

As expected, Henri strengthened into a hurricane today as it continues its journey northward towards Southern New England. A few things have come into focus today. The model trend of taking the storm west into New York City halted and corrected back east. Landfall is expected between the Hamptons on Eastern Long Island and Newport, RI. So far, Henri has not gotten appreciably stronger, until right around now. The pressure is down to 988 mb as of 730 PM. The window is closing fast; it has until around 10 or 11 PM tonight before the ocean fuel runs out.

GOES 16 Visible Satellite 3-530 PM (Image Credit- College of Dupage Weather Center)

As the sun is setting on Henri, look what is finally showing up on satellite- an eye! It also appears that thunderstorms are firing in and around that eye. Although expected, we would prefer to keep it on the weaker side. The IR satellite confirms this strengthening

GOES-16 IR Satellite 5-730 PM (Image Credit- Tropical Tidbits)

The hurricane hunters are en route to Henri as I write this (approx. 530 PM). This data will help confirm the strengthening trend and help provide valuable insights about the storm.  Its pretty remarkable that we were able to narrow down the landfall zone as quickly as we did, but because the severity of impacts from town to town vary depending on the exact track, we still want to pinpoint that final landfall location. 

12z FV3 3km Simulated Radar (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

I like this model because its new and also because it depicts the precipitation shield well. The eastern side of the storm will see very little precipitation. The heaviest rain will be across Western CT, Western MA, and Eastern New York State. Flash flood watches are never the less still posted in Worcester County. It won't take much rain to cause flash flooding and some of these outer bands from Henri can produce 1-2" per hour.   Less than an inch of rain is likely inside I-95 and less than 0.5 inch is likely across the outer Cape. 

National Weather Service Precipitation forecast (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

That said, a landfall in Southern Rhode Island would shift this map to east. There are several reliable models taking the storm into Narragansett Bay. This would be a worst cast scenario for Henri for Eastern MA and especially Central MA. 

NOTE- NOT A FORECAST, A POSSIBLE SCENARIO 

18z HWRF Sim Radar MSLP 2 PM Sunday (Image Credit- Tropical Tidbits)

Henri is not expected to have a large wind field and the winds aloft will be tropical storm force. During these bands of rain the strongest wind gusts will occur. Right now a general 40-50 MPH is expected in Central MA and Rhode Island. With the saturated soil, that should be enough to uproot trees and cause power outages. Unfortunately it looks like Connecticut will take the worst of Henri. Eversource is cautioning residents that power could be out for 8-21 Days (!) and that up to 1.3 million customers could lose power. 

But once again, shift this wind gust map to the east if the Rhode Island landfall verifies. 

National Weather Service Max Wind Gust (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

Several hundred thousand customers are expected to lose power. If you add in all of the Northeast it will probably top 1 Million.  The Storm Prediction Center has most of Southeastern New England (east of center) with a marginal risk of a tornado. 

To time it out, expect the first rain bands in Central and Eastern MA between 5-8 AM. The weather really goes downhill after 8 AM with the worst moving through between 11 AM-5 PM tomorrow afternoon. 

(Image Credit- National Hurricane Center)

Image Credit- National Hurricane Center)

This says some towns will see Tropical Storm force winds starting at 8 AM (top image) but the most likely time for them is after 2 PM (bottom image).

 In closing, Henri will be an impactful storm in Southern New England. Best wishes to your property and I'm hoping for 0 deaths. Tropical cyclones have a mind of their own. Be prepared for any scenario tomorrow and hope for the best.  I'll post as much as I can tomorrow.