Evening Blizzard Thoughts

We are in the toddler stages of our Nor'Easter (blizzard to be).  Here a few of my thoughts/observations.  

General Overview

I don't expected all of you to be as enthralled with this satellite image as I am, but this is just a gorgeous image 

GOES_east Water Vapor Satellite Image through 615 PM (NOAA)

The main precipitation shield is rapidly approaching Southern New England.  Conditions will be deteriorating within the next several hours everywhere.  

NWS Northeast Regional Radar through 708 PM

It is in the teens outside of SE MA/RI which are in the Mid 20's.  

2 m temperatures 6 PM (image Weatherbell)

I am concerned about these temperatures in SE MA/RI.  They are going to get hammered tonight/tomorrow with heavy wet snow and powerful winds.  The snow will certainly pile up in Southern Worcester County/E CT/N RI/North Shore and it will be windy but the power outage threat is less than our friends to the South and East.    We are looking at 1"+ per hour snow in this region starting now (734 PM as I write) and lasting...how long?!?

SPC Mesoscale Snowfall discussion 

These bands will rotate towards Hartford and Worcester through the night.  Here is where the storm is centered right now with the general track.

SPC Mesoscale Analysis 7 pm Surface Pressure/radar overlay

Considering it will continue to deepen and track closer the hype is justified for Southern New England.  I don't know if this ends up as a Top 5 storm but guidance has been CRUSHING Eastern MA.  For example, check out the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (many members with slightly different initial conditions) for Logan Airport 

15z Boston SREF Plume Total Snowfall (SPC)

The mean is 30 inches.  The lowest member is 20 and it is all alone.  Boston needs 25" to crack the top 5 and 27.7" to break its record set back in 2003.  Providence may set its record as well which is 28.6" set in 1978.  I think Providence will finish in 2nd, ahead of the Blizzard of 2005 but shy of 78.  Don't be shocked to hear thundersnow tonight either.  This storm is juiced!

Enjoy it, stay safe.