Winter Storm Impacts, Timing

Snowstorms are generally not a big deal in Southern New England.  This storm will be slightly different than others we've faced in recent years due to bitterly cold temperatures.  The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings
NWS Boston Winter Weather Advisory

Set Up
Here is the current surface chart
WPC Surface Analysis 4 PM EST
Notice the cold front moving out of Canada?  Check out the temps behind it
2 m temps 6 pm (image weatherbell)
A weak low is moving out of Oklahoma while a boundary in the Gulf of Mexico collects moisture.  Here is the water vapor loop
NOAA GOES_Composite Water Vapor Loop 645 EST
The system in OK will transfer its energy to a new low pressure center off the SE coast tomorrow.  That storm will continue to deepen as it moves South and East of New England.

Timing
Light snow breaks out overnight tonight.  Warm moist Atlantic air will flow over the top of the cold Arctic air mass in place.  As a result snow forms well ahead of the actual storm.  The morning commute will be slow due to the light snow.  Here is the national simulated radar for 8 am

22z HRRR CONUS Simulated Radar (image weatherbell)
I don't expect it to snow all morning or afternoon, but that does not mean the forecast is a bust.  Check out the precipitation train that is coming.  The evening commute will also be slow but shouldn't be impossible.  The heavy snow will work back in around 8-9 PM.
18z NAM hires CONUS Simulated Radar (image weatherbell)
Winds will generally gust 20-40 mph in Southeastern New England although stronger gusts are likely over the Cape and Islands.  Friday morning the snow will wrap up so expect a miserable AM commute.

Temperatures
Miserable day tomorrow.  South of the Pike, East of 495 will be in the 20's tomorrow.  Everyone else is around 10-15
18z NAM hires 2 m temp 12 PM Thur (image weatherbell)
This is nasty cold.  Tomorrow night we approach 0
18z NAM hires 2 m temps 7 am Fri (image weatherbell)
Wind chills are well below 0.  If you have to be outside just be smart and dress it layers.  Be careful with the kids playing in the snow.  The snow will be fluffy and it will be blowing and drifting.

I'll update as needed.

-Zack










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