Heavy Rain ends, Rivers rise and recede

The Blackstone River will come out of its banks in Northbridge this afternoon.  It will be nothing like the flooding going on in PA and NY thankfully.  Godspeed to those folks who are facing evacuations by foot.  Southern New England was protected by an area of high pressure that did not allow the axis of heavy tropical moisture to feed into New England.  Our good fortune is someone else's nightmare so all we can be is thankful. The combination of this weeks rain on top of Irene's rain is causing this flooding.  Here is the Blackstone River forecast

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center forecast 

The forecast calls for the river to rise almost to flood stage; I think it comes over its banks and crests around 10 feet, just like during Irene.  This is something to watch throughout the fall.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a top 5 flooding event in Northbridge during the fall.  Home and business owners along the Blackstone should be ready to evacuate; a flooding event like 2005 is not out of the question.

The good news is that most of the rain is over and tomorrow will be a nice day.  Hurricane Katia will be making its closest approach on Friday.  A high surf warning is in effect for south facing beaches.  Waves will be 4-10 feet, the highest on the Cape and Islands.  Dangerous rip currents will also make swimming a bad idea so lets stay out of the water.   Anyway tomorrow starts off with dense fog, burning off by 11 and leaving a nice day.  Temperatures will soar into the low 80's.  The high school football games should be fine, a nice opening night in which a light jacket is all you will need.  Mainly clear skies with temperatures in the mid 60's throughout the game.

On Saturday I expect morning rain to end by about 10 am and the rest of Saturday should be okay.  However the day may be gray and temperatures will struggle to get out of the low 70's.  Saturday night the fall chill will be in the air as temperatures drop into the lower 50's.  I would expect all the coolest locations to drop into the upper 40's.  You'll notice on Sunday because despite party sunny skies, temperatures will struggle to reach 70.  It will be a great start to the NFL season and weather just like the morning of 9/11.  I can't believe its been 10 years, that day feels like yesterday.

Tropics Discussion
Maria will pass by tomorrow.  Maria looks like its heading on a starting pass very similar to Irene.  Several factors should limit Maria if she survives the wind shear she is currently facing.  The official NHC forecast and track takes Maria to the threshold of hurricane strength.  Nate may actually bring some rain to Texas after all.  He is going to sit around, become a Hurricane and make up his mind.  

That's all for now, I wanted to focus on our weather today.  More later.

Rainy Days, more Tropical trouble brewing

I want to apologize to those expecting updates over the last few days.  My internet has been going on and off ever since Hurricane Irene so it has been difficult to post.  Hopefully that is all squared away; I missed a fantasy football draft last night because of it.  Anyway on to the weather...which has been dreary.  The remains of Tropical Storm Lee have combined with a frontal boundary and together the systems have been dropping heavy rain over areas that do not need it.  The heaviest rain has appeared to shut off for Southern New England.  That will not put us out of the woods; showers are still likely from now until Friday night.  The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee will continue to push northeast and there will be another chance of heavy steady rain Friday night into Saturday morning from the interaction of Lee and Hurricane Katia passing well offshore of Nantucket.

Surface Map

Until Friday night there is a good chance the lulls in between rain will produce manageable weather.  I actually expect tomorrow to be a pretty decent day with very little rain. Tonight we may have to deal with isolated heavy rain bands from Hurricane Katia.  Remember Saturday afternoon before Irene?  Those were predecessor rain bands and some models are hinting at this happening with Katia as well.  The only other effects from Katia will be dangerous surf and rip currents.  Stay out of the water this weekend, it only puts other people at risk when they need to come save your life.  Unless you are an experienced surfer don't even bother going in.

For the weekend, most of Saturday and all of Sunday look to be great here in New England.  The NFL kicks off this weekend, if you pick games (for fun of course) I'll be forecasting each game.  A special Green Bay forecast will be available later tonight and a full forecast for the other 15 games will be available Friday. The tropics discussion will follow below.

Tropics Discussion
Currently in the Atlantic Ocean basin there are two named storms and a third area that has a 60% of developing into a Tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.  First off is Hurricane Katia.  Hurricane Katia took a  textbook track north of the islands and in between Bermuda and the United States.  The winds are currently 85 mph and the central pressure is 976 mb.  While Hurricane Katia peaked with winds of 135 mph, a category 4 hurricane on the outdated Saffir-Simpson scale, Irene had a lower central pressure and thus is still considered the strongest storm of the season.  The track of Katia will send her racing through the graveyard of the North Atlantic towards the British Isles.  The extra tropical Katia will lash Northern Ireland and Scotland with powerful winds and rains in about 5 days.  Here is the Hurricane Center track.

Next up is newly formed Tropical Storm Maria.  Maria is another system that has developed from a wave off of Africa.  The official forecast for Maria calls for only gradual strengthening as she heads west towards the Northern Leeward Islands, a track very similar to Irene.  I buy the slow strengthening of the system because that fits what each system has done so far in 2011 and it fits the climatology of a warm AMO/double La Nina season.  In 2010 most systems rapidly strengthened as they moved off Africa and were controlled by large scale steering features that took the storms out to sea.  Development has been much closer to land in 2011.   I see Maria as a possible threat to the United States in 7-10 days.  I'm much more concerned for Maria than I ever was for Katia.  Here is the NHC track for Maria.

Finally, convection in the Bay of Campeche associated with an old frontal boundary has been firing consistently over very warm waters.  Currently the upper air pattern is not all the favorable for development as upper level shear as well as dry air is limiting the organization of the system.  None the less there is a high chance this system becomes a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Nate.  Some of us may have to call it Tropical Storm Teeks (or Torch).  The bad news for this system is that the model spread is taking it into southern Mexico or the Northern Gulf Coast.  Not one is taking it into Texas where it needs to go.  I hope it heads that way, the fires and drought are terrible for those folks.  Its just like the 1950's, when a 10 year drought severely damaged the Texas region.  Another problem with the system is that if it does head towards the northern Gulf Coast, flooding is going to be a huge problem.  Lee dropped copious amounts of rain in the Southeast.  This is not what they need at all.

Finally the summer drought and rains were consistent with the 100 year average across the United States.  Some folks claimed it was unprecedented.  Well take a look at this chart courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer (who has created quite a stir recently with a newly published paper calling BS on the global climate models).  He argues that observational evidence should be more important that what the computer is saying "should" happen.  Anyway...

Yes I realize this is only June and July, but data for August is still incomplete.  I am not arguing that we haven't seen extreme weather events in 2011.  We certainly have, but they aren't unprecedented.  The Earth's temperature dropped nearly a full degree in the mid layers from 2010 to 2011.  The lower troposphere also cooled.  That type of atmospheric cooling is going to allow for more water vapor and cloud formation due more mixing of warm and cool air masses.  The same thing happened in the 1950's.  I'm really sick of every weather event being blamed on "global warming".  What the hell caused all the awful storms before the Industrial Revolution?

Katia will miss, Lee

Katia, Lee, and Labor Day

After 106 hours, power was restored to my neighborhood last night.  That is the longest I've ever been without power and it brought up an interesting question.  Would you rather face a Hurricane like Irene or a winter nor'easter?  Most people answered a Hurricane because there was nothing to shovel and the weather was warm so no one had to leave their home.  I actually cringe when I hear that response because Irene was nowhere near the strongest winds we could face in a hurricane.  Structural damage was limited to trees falling on homes.  In a category 1 or 2 hurricane there would be more damage to homes and businesses and people would be without power for longer.  

I see government officials are complaining about the long process of getting power restored.  Its a natural disaster that hit nearly the entire east coast.  Crews have been brought in from Michigan and Canada.  There were just too many trees down for a rapid response.  It does get old and frustrating sitting without power but the utility crews are working 16 hour shifts and working as fast as they can.

Scenes like these played out all over the commonwealth.  Now a lot of people want to know where Katia will go.  More on Katia and Lee in the tropics discussion below.

The weather for today and tomorrow is awesome for the start of Labor Day weekend.  Highs today will reach the lower 80's with mostly sunny skies.  Tonight is nice with temperatures dipping into only the lower 60's.  For September that's not bad at all.  Tomorrow will be nice, a transition day of sorts.  By late in the day some areas north and west will have a slight chance of a thunderstorm as a cold front approaches on Sunday. Highs remain in the low 80's.  Sunday  and Monday will feature a thunderstorm threat, but as of now it looks like scattered showers is most likely.  Some areas will see thunderstorms and some will not, the details on who gets what will be worked out later today and tomorrow.  

Tropics Discussion

Tropical Depression 13 is likely to become Tropical Storm Lee (or Maria) today.  It probably already should be named looking at the observations and considering some of the storms the NHC has named this season (many never would have been named in the past). Lee will slowly creep northeast towards Louisiana and may complete a loop and drop some serious flooding rains in Dixie.  Some areas may see 20 inches of rain.  Where TD13 goes after moving inland (eventually) is a concern.  The remains of the system may cause further flooding in the northeast.  Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) rainfall forecast for the next 5 days.  Notice the rainfall in Vermont...not good

The question everyone wants answered right now is whether or not Hurricane Katia will hit us.  If you asked me yesterday I would have favored an out to sea track.  However, given the latest with Lee and the westward trend of Katia, this may be something interesting for the East Coast.  One must nail the forecast for Lee (Katia) to get the forecast right for Katia (Lee).  As you saw with Irene this is no small feat.  Katia is forecast to strengthen to a major Hurricane in 4-5 days.  I agree, as climatology favors a strengthening Hurricane.  Katia is on the verge of taking a track somewhat similar to Isabel of 2003 or Fran of 1996.  Both of those storms impacted North Carolina with devastating effects.  There is a chance Katia is more like Edouard of 1996 or Juan of 2003 as well.  Juan hit Halifax as a strong Category 2 hurricane and is considered among Canada's worst Hurricanes.  Edouard brought 90 mph wind gusts to Nantucket.  Its days away and will not impact land with the exception of high waves until it nears the east coast.  At this point everyone from Miami to Maine should keep an eye on Katia.  I'm in agreement with the National Hurricane Center on the track

Katia should ride along the ridge for the next 5 days.  With more model information we'll be able to narrow down the track and be more specific.  The storm will re-curve somewhere between Bermuda and the east coast, the question is where, when, and how strong.

Katia and Lee

Hurricane Katia is moving west north west towards the Leeward Islands.  The storm will likely move north of the islands and head northwest somewhere between Bermuda and the east coast.  Its looking like Katia will be pushed away from the east coast with the greatest threat for Atlantic Canada.  This could change, but the forecast is calling for a midwest trough to kick Katia away.  This would allow for the system that will become Lee to move northward into the Tennessee Valley.  This could potentially be bad news for the northeast as areas hit hard by Irene's flooding may see more heavy rain.  Lee will likely be a Hurricane before moving into Louisiana. 

Rain will return by Saturday night with a chance of showers.  Hopefully everyone's power will be back by then.  Utility crews are finally working on the trees and power lines in my neighborhood so I hope to be back online with pictures of the storm and updates on Katia and Lee. 

Irene Wrap Up

Sorry for the lack updates during the height of the storm.  I've been without power since 9 am on Sunday.  I am over my brothers place now.  Many have said Irene was no big deal.  If you still have power, no tree damage on your property, and no serious flooding then yes I agree, Irene was no big deal to you.  However hundreds of thousands are still without power and floodwater's are only slowly starting to recede in VT.  It may a week before power returns in communities like Marlboro, Northboro, Southboro, Mendon, Upton, Uxbridge, Blackstone, Millville, and Northbridge.   Was Irene as bad as it could have been? No it wasn't because there was very little in the terms of structural damage.  Irene spread it effects out over a large area.  It will go down as a memorable storm, probably worse than Bob in Central and Western New England.  In all 35 people are dead.

The national media coverage has been criticized about how they handled the storm.  Many people who are criticizing have no damage on their property.  Was the coverage a bit over the top? Yes it was.  The Weather Channel did not have a meteorologist in New England.  Many focused on the potential destruction of NYC by storm surge flooding.  It was clear by Thursday night that Irene did not have the wind speeds to cause that type of destruction.  It was also clear that flooding was going to be a major issue west of the storm track.  I do not believe residents of VT and upstate New York were properly warned.

I also believe that residents let their guard down when Irene was downgraded to Tropical Storm.  For New England that meant absolutely nothing; the large wind field was still going to knock down trees and power lines.   I missed on the landfall wind speed of Irene and my track was off a few miles.  All in all I am satisfied with my forecast, but I learned some lessons from forecasting Irene as well.  This was the first time I made a public forecast for a Hurricane.  If there is a lesson to be learned from Irene it is that a storm with a large wind field will have large impacts.  Just imagine the damage if we took a direct Hurricane hit.

So whats next in the tropics?  Tropical Storm Katia has formed in the deep Atlantic.  The same general pattern is in place across the Atlantic.  Katia should track north of the islands and then re-curve in between the east coast and Bermuda.  Way to early to be sure where exactly she will go but I will leave you a few maps from past Hurricane seasons that are similar to 2011.

1954

1955

1996

                                   

1999

All of these seasons have multiple east coast tracks.  They also all have re-curving Hurricanes out to sea.  So Katia will be monitored.  Areas in Texas may get relief from tropical system this weekend.  This storm will be named Lee and it could be a Hurricane when it strikes Texas or Louisiana.  We are in the height of Hurricane season.   New England Weather is pleasant until at least Sunday.

Uxbridge Flooding from Saturday Afternoon

This is Rt 122 in Uxbridge, MA.  3.74 inches of rain fell in about two hours and this was the result.  Thank you to Greg and Shawn Walker for the photos.