Winter Weather Advisory Monday Morning

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of Southern New England tomorrow morning

NWS Boston WWA

Low pressure will move out of the Midwest where a blizzard is raging tonight

HPC surface analysis 522 PM

A warm front will try to overspread the region tomorrow morning and force the high pressure area to our north to retreat.  The cold dense air, supported by the deep snowpack will try and fight this so the first moisture that falls will likely be snow.  A dusting to two inches will be the norm for most in Southeast New England.  2-5 will fall in Southwestern CT, up through the Pioneer Valley of MA and the Berkshires.  I also expect 2-5 for most of Western Maine.  

Monday Morning Snow Map

Some areas may see nothing, but I like a dusting for most everyone. After this the precipitation will turn to freezing rain, probably around 10 or 11 AM

HPC ice potential > 0.01 inch

The warm air will be able to ride over the top of the cold but the lower levels will warm into the 40's tomorrow afternoon so by 4 PM expect plain rain.  The roads are still a mess in a lot of areas.  It goes without saying that this is not going to help.  Here is the precipitation totals for tomorrow

HPC 24 precip forecast

Tornadoes are ripping across Mississippi right now and this system is also tapping some gulf moisture.  This is a pretty healthy slug of precipitation and continues to show evidence that the Southern Jet is active.  

NWS radar Lower MS Valley718 PM

Here is the storm on satellite.  It also looks impressive

Rainbow Infrared Satellite Image GOES-comp

Looking ahead to Tuesday temperatures will climb into the low 40's.  Much of New England will be above average the next few days.  It will be sunny, albeit with a gusty west wind.  On Wednesday it will be sunny with temps in the upper 30's.  A system will pass a few hundred miles to the south on Wednesday Night/Thursday and there is a slight chance for snow.  Temperatures for Thursday/Friday are upper 30's/low 40's.

The next big system to watch is next weekend.  The EURO model is fishing out another storm and this model seems to have a handle on the pattern.  It is too soon to know if this is a rain or snow storm; it could also just be a false alarm.  Not betting against the EURO however.