Winter Storm Possible Friday

Good morning everyone and Happy National Weatherperson's Day.  Once again the weather charts are showing a nice storm in the 3-5 day range this time for Friday.  It looks to come in late enough that all schools can open on time but early dismissal's will be possible.  Over the weekend the only model to catch on was the EURO.  The EURO has held firm and slowly is gaining support from other models including its ensemble members.  The American GFS is organizing itself with each new run.  So what the hell does this all mean?  We will go through the progression of the storm touching on the weather in the next few days.

In case you missed it- National Weekly Snowfall Outlook over at Tornado Titans
Also a report on the Great Drought of the 1950's, also at Tornado Titans

Tuesday
A series of clipper systems have been developing east of the Rocky Mountains in Alberta, Canada and clipping the northern tier of the United States.  These are riding along the Jet Stream

2/5/13 00z NAM 300 mb wind

On the surface chart one can easily see the clippers

514 AM Surface Analysis

The storm moving through PA and WV is generating just enough lift across SNE to produce light snow

601 am radar

These light snows should clear by 10.  Temperatures today should top out in the low 30's for most, upper 20's for the rest 

09z RAP 2 m Temps 3 PM EST (image wxbell)

Wednesday-Thursday

The first clipper will pass to the south of New England and begin to get stronger, while a weaker clipper will try to track over Northern New England tonight/tomorrow.  This will succeed in moderating temperatures a bit, to near 35.  More importantly Friday's storm is starting to take shape

00z GFS valid Wednesday 7 PM (image wxbell)

The EURO

00z EURO mslp valid Wed 7 PM (image wxbell)

At 500 mb on Thursday night it will look like

00z GFS 500 mb heights Valid Thursday 7 PM (image wxbell)

on the EURO

00z EURO 500 mb heights valid Thursday 7 PM (image wxbell)

Differences I pick out- the upper low in the EURO hangs further back than in the GFS.  In other words it is slower, thus more likely to phase the northern and southern energy together.

Friday

500 mb for Friday 7 PM.  Each image is from 2/5/2013 00z run of the EURO/GFS

GFS image wxbell, 500 mb winds

EURO

500 mb (image wxbell)

The EURO is stronger and more of a classic look.  Here is what it looks like on the surface charts

GFS 1000-500 thickness

EURO

MSLP (image wxbell)

I'm not going to show the snow totals from the EURO.  Not yet.  No one would be crying over no snow...GFS isn't too shabby even without its phased system.  I'll keep track of it, have a good day.