Extended Outlook

There is still some black ice on the roads this morning especially sidewalks, highway ramps, etc.  The National Weather Service issued a special weather statement on the matter.  Temperatures will rebound this morning and afternoon as most areas will approach 40.  A storm will pass well to our south tonight which will coat extreme Southern New England with light snow.  There remains a low probability of a coastal storm on Sunday.

Wednesday

HPC 7 am forecast

The system in the Southeast is responsible for severe weather across MS/AL/FL as well as snow in TX and OK.   With high pressure over PA this will help to deflect this system south and out to sea.  By 7 PM the is forecast to be spreading moisture north.

HPC 7 pm forecast

The question is how far north will the snow reach?  The GFS and EURO are not expecting much for SNE.  Here is the GFS (EURO agrees)

06 GFS total snowfall through 10 am Thur (image weatherbell)

HPC has a low probability of 4 inches of snow for the South coast of New England

HPC day 1 prob snowfall > 4"

Thursday

Clouds will persist until the afternoon before things start to clear up.  There will be a wind shift from the North to the West.  Temperatures will jump when the wind shifts.  I am expecting high temps near 40 for most.  

00z EURO 2 m Max temps Thursday afternoon (image weatherbell)

Friday

A partly to mostly cloudy day with temperatures in the mid 40's.  Melting will continue and it the snowpack should be getting thin by Friday.  As with this morning, Thursday and Friday will feature melting during the day and a refreeze at night.  Friday night temperatures drop into the upper 20's.  There will be a chance for snow overnight Saturday with a system moving through Northern New England.

Saturday-Sunday

High pressure in control but with more of a northerly wind component so temperatures will be in the mid 30's for the interior, around 40 in SE MA, RI for Saturday.  Now this could change- some models show a major coastal storm impacting the region.  The Canadian and UK model are bullish with a storm while the NOGAPS is close.  More importantly the EURO is not buying the system.  The GFS is also not buying.  Here is the Canadian

00z CMC  1000-500 thickness, mslp Sunday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

The EURO ensembles sense low pressure is possible

00z EPS MSLP Saturday 7 PM (image wxbell)

However that is a spread out region indicating high uncertainty.  My sense is the EURO and GFS will trend back towards the shore while the CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET trend away.  The NOGAPS isn't a great model but its solution seems reasonable.  Low offshore with enhanced precip along an inverted trough.  However its just as likely that the EURO operational has sniffed out the OTS track.

00z NOGAPS mslp precip 850 T valid Sun 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

Hopefully this becomes a bit more clear later.  Have a good day.