Slop North of the MA Pike, Rain South

From what my eyes can see it has not snowed even a trace overnight in Northbridge and we have plain rain. That ok with me, you do not have to shovel rain.  Other areas well north and west will be doing the backbreaking work.

Current Conditions

NE radar 0538 am

Surface Temperatures

4 am temperatures (image weatherbell)

Areas along the coast from NH down to CT were just too warm to support any snow.  Its not all that cold at the 925 mb level above the surface either

SPC mesoanalysis 925 mb

A secondary low pressure has formed and is ushering warm marine air off the Atlantic.  Here is what the surface looks like

530 am Surface Analysis

High pressure to the north is not strong enough to lock cold in as its almost March, we need some serious Arctic air for a snowstorm.  Instead the higher elevations will see a solid snowfall.  Here is the NAM hires snowfall totals

00z NAM hires snowfall through 7 pm (image weatherbell)

What I find interesting is the how detailed this high resolution model is.  It is showing snow in all the higher elevations (Worcester Hills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, etc) and rain in the valley's along the rivers (Blackstone, Connecticut, Hudson etc).    The rain will clear by 7 PM tonight.  Here is the precipitation expected between now and tonight

10z RAP total precip through 11 PM (image weatherbell)

The average temperatures during the period

10z RAP average temperature next 18 hours

This makes it clear why its wet and not white.  Thursday will be unsettled with mainly overcast skies with scattered showers.  Temperatures will be in the mid 40's.  Overnight Thursday into Friday is interesting.  Just like Sunday an upper level feature will slowly move east towards New England.  

06 NAM 500 mb vort valid Friday 7 am

Where will this set up?  It looks like SE MA may be the sweet spot where several inches may accumulate.  After this clears Friday the weekend through Monday looks good.  The storm I saw for this weekend has backed off because the pattern is not breaking as the model anticipated- the cold air will eject all the way to the Gulf Coast.  When cold Arctic air moves over the warm moist Gulf in March big things happen.  Next chance for a storm is about 6-7 days.  Plenty of time to watch.