Lots of Weather to Talk About

As of 5 AM this morning there is a Hurricane Warning for the Big Island of Hawaii and a Hurricane Watch for portions of Florida.  Meanwhile Hurricane Gaston is a still a major Category 3 Hurricane in the open Atlantic and Tropical Depression 8 is pushing south and east of New England.  I'll get to all the tropical mischief in a moment but first lets touch on the Southern New England forecast.

General Overview
High pressure is set to move offshore today as a cold front approaches from the west.  This will being a return of the humidity this afternoon and will also increase rain chances tonight and Thursday.  The front will also help kick TD 8 out to sea and pull TD 9 (or likely Hermiine) Northeast into the Big Bend of Florida.  Here is the water vapor satellite loop from this morning

GOES East Water Vapor GIF 2 AM-4 AM (image NOAA)

Gaston is racing away on the far right while TD 8 is the thunderstorm complex off the NC Outer Banks and TD 9 is the thunderstorm mass in the Gulf.  The front is the clouds and moisture Missouri, Illinois and Michigan.  Here is the surface map

WPC 2 am surface analysis 

In terms of our weather there will be a mix of sun and clouds today with temps in the mid 80's.  Dew points will be in the mid 60's as well.   The rip current risk will be moderate today for all Southern New England beaches as a 3-5 ft swell from TD 8 and Gaston impacts the shore.

NWS Boston SNE Surf forecast 

Rain showers will move into Western New England later around 11 PM-midnight.  Some heavier showers could drop up to an 1" of rain in Western and Northern MA but most of us can reasonably expect a quarter of an inch of rain.  The AM commute is likely wet tomorrow.  Here is the simulated radar for 8 AM

06z NAM hires simulated radar 8 am (image College of Dupage WxCenter)

Rain pulls away by 2-3 PM leaving behind an air mass with max temps in the 70's and dew points in the 50's.  A perfect early fall preview for Friday and perhaps Saturday before we have watch what TD 9 does.

Tropical Update
First lets go to Hawaii.  Actually most people would want to avoid Hawaii as Hurricane Madeline heads toward the Big Island.

GOES Floater Rainbow infrared satellite Hurricane Madeline (image NOAA)

She is weakening but is expected to pass close to South Point if not right over.  Heavy rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf will accompany the storm.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island with Tropical Storm warnings posted further west.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center Track/Advisory for Hurricane Madeline

Closer to home TD 9 is ready to become a named storm and head towards Florida.  Given the available warmth in the Gulf and a more favorable upper level wind pattern this storm can intensify quickly.  For that reason the NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning.

TD 9 NHC 5 AM track/forecast/warnings 

East of the center will see a dangerous storm surge while west of the center will see heavy flooding rains.  The storm surge potential is heightened in this part of Florida thanks to the concave curvature of the coast.  Now I'm sure attention is being paid to the 5 day part of the forecast and I see it and will evaluate this.  For now the potential for a crappy Sunday/Monday at the Cape is real.

-Zack Green