Blustery Wind/Cold Wed-Thur, Snow This Weekend

A storm system that brought beneficial rain is exiting off the coast this morning.  I say beneficial because it helped to eat some of this snow pack.  There is snow in the medium and long range forecast.  In the short term high pressure builds holding temperatures below average and a tight pressure gradient will allow for windy conditions over the next several days.

Wednesday/Current Conditions
It is still in the low 40's in coastal regions of Eastern MA/RI/ME.  Generally lower to mid 30's elsewhere (Berkshires I see you in the low 20')

4 am 2 m Temp Analysis (Image weatherbell)

Here is the surface chart

HPC Surface Analysis 520 AM EST

That is a 1042 high centered over the Manitoba/Ontario border.  Over the northeast pressures are running around 1000 mb as the system that brought some heavy rain last night is still in the vicinity.  This gradient is the reason for the gusty winds.  Temps today will max in the upper 20's for many west of 495, low 30's east

00z EURO Max 2 m Afternoon temps (image weatherbell)

By 7 PM this evening wind chills will drop into the single digits and likely close to zero overnight

09z RAP Windchill valid 7 PM (image weatherbell)

Thursday

Much of the same for Thursday.  The high pressure system doesn't move much or weaken.  Models are in good agreement and I like the HPC forecast map

HPC 48 hour forecast valid Thursday 7 PM

One can see active weather moving out of Texas into the Plains.  They really need the moisture there as they are in exceptional drought.  None the less temperatures will likely be slightly cooler on Thursday as the high makes a subtle shift into Ontario 

00z EURO T 2m Thursday Afternoon (image weatherbell)

Friday

The large storm in the plains will move northeast towards the Great Lakes.  It will run into the strong high and begin to weaken.  However it will begin to send some warmer air into the Northeast so Friday looks to be the best of the rest.  Temperatures across the region will reach the low 40's with light winds.  The February sun will feel nice.

Saturday-Sunday

The Plains/Midwest storm will push as far to the north and east as it can but it will be forced to weaken due to upstream blocking.  This will force a secondary development off the east coast.  

HPC forecast Saturday Morning

24 hours later I am expecting a set up similar to this

HPC forecast Sunday Morning

The question is amounts, how much mixing etc.  Along the coast I do expect precipitation type issues as there is a not a classic high pressure over Montreal draining cold air into New England.  The mix shouldn't make it to far past 95 in Massachusetts however and areas from the Boston-Prov-Hartford line north should see mostly snow and heavy at that.  The rain snow line will be critical in this storm because the heaviest snow will be just to the west/north (depending on orientation).  General timing is Saturday Afternoon into late Sunday morning.  

First Outlook

I'm not going to be specific with totals yet, but expect a plow able snowfall.  Hey Ox take the over.  This looks to be a heavy wet snow, not the powder we have seen lately.  That keeps amounts down but causes many more problems.

Brief Warm Up Tuesday-Watching Weekend Storm

A strong low pressure system and associated cold front are pushing through the Great Lakes this morning.  The cold front produced several tornado warning's last night in Arkansas and Louisiana and blizzard like conditions in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota.  For more national winter weather headlines check out my post over at Tornado Titans.  These will help get temperatures into the low 40's in Southern New England albeit only for today.  Cold arctic air returns for Thursday and Friday and then we watch a potential coastal storm this weekend.

Tuesday

HPC surface analysis 4 am EST

Temperatures are chilly this morning

2 m Temps 5 am EST (image weatherbell)

Plenty of moisture is working towards us

Great Lakes regional radar 558 AM EST

The "warmer" temps are lurking in the Ohio Valley

National 2 m Temps 5 am EST (image weatherbell)

Northern New England should see snow out of this system.  The higher elevations of Central and Southern New England will likely see a burst of wintry precipitation.  850 temps will be below zero for all the way into interior CT and RI so a little ice or sleet before a change to plain rain is also possible across the lower elevations of SNE.

NCEP Ensemble Precipitation Probs

This ensemble based forecast shows that any precip that falls this afternoon will be rain.  Going forward a few hours

NCEP Ensemle Precipitation Probs

I'm not expecting accumulation but when the sun goes down there is a good chance wintry precipitation works into the region.  This is quick hitting- I expect the timing to be 4 PM-9 PM.  

Wednesday-Thursday

Tomorrow morning the front will clear the coast and strong high pressure in South Central Canada will send cold Arctic air back into New England

06z GFS MSLP Precip valid Wednesday 7 am EST (Image Weatherbell)

A 1042 high pressure center will make temperatures fall into the 20's/low 30's.  By Thursday morning we look like this

06z NAM Hires 2 m temps (image Weatherbell)

Wednesday and Thursday are similar- gusty NW winds but dry.  Overnight lows in the upper teens.

Friday

A blizzard in the Midwest will cut up east of the lakes, but will send some energy out towards the Southeast.  In fact we will be looking at a serious severe weather outbreak in the South Thursday/Friday.  This will temporarily raise heights across New England so we rebound to close to 40 on Friday with partly cloudy skies.

Weekend

The pattern is very active so for the 3rd straight weekend we will be tracking a potential storm.  The EURO ensemble control buys a good storm but the operational is close but no cigar.  The GFS is playing its typical games; it had a storm for a few runs and now has lost it.  That actually makes me feel more confident as the GFS has pulled this trick many times.  By Thursday morning it will likely have the storm again but we are 120-144 hours from the event.  Have a good day.

Small-Moderate Event Tomorrow

My thoughts on a developing weather situation

Current Observations

021613 Water Vapor 115 PM

A deep trough is digging into the Eastern US.  Florida will have its coldest weather in years tonight.

021613 IR satellite imagery 145 PM

Snow is falling in North and South Carolina 

Radar Raleigh/Durham NWS

There is a decent chance someone ends up with close to 6 inches in this region.  The storm will move up the coast and pass close to the benchmark of 40 N 70 W.  The surface chart looks like this

1115 AM surface analysis (HPC)

Low pressure will strengthen as it moves along the stationary boundary off the east coast.  HPC has issued the following snowfall probabilities

Sat 7 am- Sun 7 am snowfall probs > 4" (HPC)

Here are the Day 2 probabilities

Sun 7 am-Mon 7 am snowfall probs >4" (HPC)

Some models show literally nothing for the Northeast.  My guess is they are transferring energy to low pressure further out to sea.  This can happen; I got burned in college forecasting 8-12 and we ended up with 0.4 or so.  This is not the same set up so not expecting a repeat.  This system begins around midnight and lasts until noon or so.  Eastern MA and Maine will hold onto snow conditions longer.  The NWS in Taunton is not expecting much west of 495

Blue Winter Wx Advisory, Pink Winter Storm Warning

I'm a little bit higher in my amounts

MY forecast for tonight/tomorrow

Snow should be fluffy as temperatures will be near 20

00z EURO 7 am SUN 2 m max temps (image wxbell)

I'll be watching this evolve with great interest there is a high bust potential.

Snow Saturday-Sunday? At Least Some

I am not expecting a storm like the Blizzard of 2013 on Saturday.  But believe it or not that storm was easier to forecast than this weekends event.  The EURO had locked onto the blizzard from about 5 days out and did not waver.  It was case closed for me even though the GFS never really came around and the NAM was iffy until 36-48 hours out.  This time there is no real consensus so forecasters are on our own.  First of all the overnight guidance cannot even agree on when the precipitation begins.  Secondly some models still develop a nor'easter while others are a weaker more strung out system.  Finally other models show pretty much nothing.  It doesn't mean the forecast is impossible, it means I have to use my brain like forecasters did BEFORE computer models.

Current Conditions

HPC surface chart 523 AM

A cold front is dropping south through the Midwest.  Another boundary is present through Texas and has several waves of low pressure.  This is likely the first issue the model is having- lots of energy in the stream.  At 500 mb we look like this

09z RAP 500 mb vort (NCEP)

A ridge has developed along the west coast and has good amplification.  One would expect the trough to deepen all the way to Florida.  This much of the forecast is certain; heights will be lowering across the east.  Currently on radar the nation looks like this

National Radar image 620 AM

Finally here is the 300 mb jet stream

06z NAM 000 300 mb winds 

The momentum created by the jet streak near Alaska will be the primary cause of the trough deepening in the east.  The southern stream is awfully close to the northern stream, which often happens in February.  The streams will phase but I believe it will be too late to give us another blizzard.  However I do believe that tomorrow the first wave generates enough forcing and lift and a snow event breaks out.  

Friday

No problems today; temperatures will get close to 50.  Today is a good day to get rid of any leftover ice from the blizzard.

Saturday

Snow begins to fall in the morning and will continue at a light-moderate clip for most of the day.  HPC has a 40% chance of 4 inches of snow from 7 am Sat-Sun

HPC day 2 prob > 4" snow

The EURO operation is advertising a general 3-6, a lot more for Maine.  Here are the totals through Monday morning

00z EURO op total snowfall (image weatherbell)

Again tough call, but going with a weaker, long duration storm.  It will snow throughout Saturday night into Sunday.  Whatever hits should be out by noon on Sunday.  There is still a chance of a complete miss and a complete hit; I just find those odds low.  I'll update later to either confirm my forecast or blow it up.

Calm Weather Next Two Days, Light Snow Sat

The melting will continue today and tomorrow before a low pressure system adds a couple of inches on top of whats left.  From a meteorological standpoint this type of melting is the best case scenario.  Sometimes the snow sticks around and then a big rain storm moves up the coast.  The combo of rain and melting snow often causes flooding.

Current Conditions

BOX radar 521 AM

Last night's snow has pulled away.  It did not amount to much as reports have been of the 1-3 inch variety along the south coast and Cape.

4 am 2 m Temps (image weatherbell)

Temperatures are in the upper 20's which is not bad at all considering its only Valentine's Day.  Here is the current surface chart

230 AM surface chart (HPC)

High pressure will work into the Northeast today as the low pressure system departs.  The high pressure, tho weak, will contribute to temperatures returning to at least 40 today and nearing 50 tomorrow!  Things will change for the weekend.  A series of fronts in the Upper Midwest will make their way towards the east coast.  An area of low pressure will lift north into Northern New England on Friday.  A secondary low pressure will develop in Eastern KY, TN and drop light snow for much of the I-95 corridor later Friday/Saturday.

021413 06 NAM 1000-500 mslp, thick, precip valid Friday 4 PM (image wxbell)

Here is NAM Saturday 1 PM

021413 06 NAM 1000-500 mslp, thickness, precip (image wxbell)

The NAM snowfall totals

021413 06 NAM 84 hr snow totals (image wxbell)

The EURO likes the snow a bit further north, but still a general 1-3 and more widespread

021413 00 EURO snow totals (image wxbell)

Will there be a major storm?  Not likely at all, just a typical New England light snow event.  Finally things in the long range are interesting.  A return to below normal temperatures is in the cards and the Northeast will face several storm threats next week.  Below normal temps + storm threat = snow chances.  First is later Monday/Tuesday and looks like a warmer solution.  The second is towards the end of next week and looks like a colder solution.

Finally President Obama wants to commit more money to fight global warming.  I argue here that natural changes in ocean sea surface temperatures are most responsible for recent drought and east coast hurricane activity.   More work on this topic will follow.  The science is far from settled, no matter how many times you shout it or try to suppress contrary opinions.  Joesph Goebbels would be proud of the tactics tho.  

Extended Outlook

There is still some black ice on the roads this morning especially sidewalks, highway ramps, etc.  The National Weather Service issued a special weather statement on the matter.  Temperatures will rebound this morning and afternoon as most areas will approach 40.  A storm will pass well to our south tonight which will coat extreme Southern New England with light snow.  There remains a low probability of a coastal storm on Sunday.

Wednesday

HPC 7 am forecast

The system in the Southeast is responsible for severe weather across MS/AL/FL as well as snow in TX and OK.   With high pressure over PA this will help to deflect this system south and out to sea.  By 7 PM the is forecast to be spreading moisture north.

HPC 7 pm forecast

The question is how far north will the snow reach?  The GFS and EURO are not expecting much for SNE.  Here is the GFS (EURO agrees)

06 GFS total snowfall through 10 am Thur (image weatherbell)

HPC has a low probability of 4 inches of snow for the South coast of New England

HPC day 1 prob snowfall > 4"

Thursday

Clouds will persist until the afternoon before things start to clear up.  There will be a wind shift from the North to the West.  Temperatures will jump when the wind shifts.  I am expecting high temps near 40 for most.  

00z EURO 2 m Max temps Thursday afternoon (image weatherbell)

Friday

A partly to mostly cloudy day with temperatures in the mid 40's.  Melting will continue and it the snowpack should be getting thin by Friday.  As with this morning, Thursday and Friday will feature melting during the day and a refreeze at night.  Friday night temperatures drop into the upper 20's.  There will be a chance for snow overnight Saturday with a system moving through Northern New England.

Saturday-Sunday

High pressure in control but with more of a northerly wind component so temperatures will be in the mid 30's for the interior, around 40 in SE MA, RI for Saturday.  Now this could change- some models show a major coastal storm impacting the region.  The Canadian and UK model are bullish with a storm while the NOGAPS is close.  More importantly the EURO is not buying the system.  The GFS is also not buying.  Here is the Canadian

00z CMC  1000-500 thickness, mslp Sunday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

The EURO ensembles sense low pressure is possible

00z EPS MSLP Saturday 7 PM (image wxbell)

However that is a spread out region indicating high uncertainty.  My sense is the EURO and GFS will trend back towards the shore while the CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET trend away.  The NOGAPS isn't a great model but its solution seems reasonable.  Low offshore with enhanced precip along an inverted trough.  However its just as likely that the EURO operational has sniffed out the OTS track.

00z NOGAPS mslp precip 850 T valid Sun 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

Hopefully this becomes a bit more clear later.  Have a good day.

Tuesday-Wednesday Outlook

Running a bit late this morning, here is a quick forecast\

Current Conditions

6 am 2 m temps (image wxbell)

Radar

718 radar (NOAA)

Moisture in New York is associated with a weak cold front

5 AM surface analysis (HPC)

Today will be nice with temperatures approaching 40.  The wind will be from the west, sustained 10-15 with gusts 30-35.  Overnight the temperature will drop to around 20 before rebounding to near 40 again on Wednesday.  This is great news as we are melting the snowpack.  There is a snow chance Wednesday night into Thursday but if we receive anything it will be light, on the order of a dusting to 2 inches.  The south cape could see isolated 2-4.  

Finally some are worried about a big storm this weekend but conditions do  not look nearly as favorable for a big storm as last weekend.  As of now I lean towards a 50/50 chance of a storm in general.  Still time to watch so do not cancel any plans.