Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm Warning for everyone in Southern New England except Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  MVY is under a Winter Weather Advisory while ACK is expecting mostly rain.

02/04/14 NWS Advisories 

The warning begins at midnight and will expire at 6 PM tomorrow.  On Saturday I was concerned that mixing would limit snow totals as far north as the MA Pike.  There has been a trend in guidance to take the storm center South of Nantucket which would make this a colder solution.  Mixing should be confined to the South Coast.

General Overview

Here is the surface chart as of 4 AM

WPC Surface Analysis 4 am

Our storm will form as tbe cold front in the Upper Plains dives South and east towards the Gulf Coast.  Temperatures today will get to around 32.  It is currently in the upper teens.  The low will track near Pittsburgh before reforming along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.  From there it will slide south of New England

WPC Surface Forecast 7 am Wed

Colder than normal temperatures follow the storm.

Timing

Light snow will begin to break out in SW CT late tonight.  Steady accumulating precipitation will begin around 4-5 AM.  It will last until 3-5 PM in Southern New England.  

Amounts

02/05.14 Snow Expectation

More later, if needed.  Have a good one

-Zack Green

Need to Increase Snow Totals Today

It looks like 1-3 inches of snow will fall South of the MA Pike with a coating to and inch possible all the way to Northern MA border.  As much as 6-8 inches may fall along the South Coast of New England, especially in CT.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Southern CT, all of RI, and portions of SE MA.  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Wednesday.

NWS Boston Advisories 02/03/14

Overview

Here is the surface chart this morning.  Notice the low in Western NC

WPC Surface Analysis 4 am EST

High pressure in the Midwest is fueling the temperature gradient which is helping to produce a lot of precipitation this morning.  Here is the radar

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am

Temperatures are still in the low 30's in Southern New England and they will cool a few degrees today

5 am 2 m temp (Image Weatherbell)

Maybe a bit more in South Central/Western MA and Northwest CT but here is what I expect

02.03.14 Snow Expectation

If you drive to Providence for work expect conditions to worsen as you head south.  If this low wobbles a bit further north there will be a lot of people cursing the weather and meteorologists in general.  The snow will end around 5-7 PM. More on Wednesday's storm this afternoon/evening.

-Zack Green

Snow Returns for Early February

Early February looks to continue the cold and snow theme of Winter 2013-14.  We have several shots at snow in the next week.  One is minor, one is moderate, one is next weekend so I'll hold off on impact.

Short Term Forecast

Temperatures are in the 40's across much of MA/RI/CT this afternoon.  It feels great after the stretch of teens and 20's this past week

2 m temps 3 PM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 30's.  The generally overcast conditions will persist into Sunday.  Some isolated showers are possible as a cold front pushes off the Northeast coast

WPC surface forecast Sun 7 am

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 40's tomorrow afternoon before the front passes.  The Bronco's sure seem to have a lucky horseshoe this year as it will be around 40 at kickoff for the Super Bowl.  

18z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Sun (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures will continue to fall into Monday.  High temps will likely occur after Midnight when temps should still be around 32.  Monday afternoon temps will be around 27-28.  A weak area of low pressure will develop along the front in the Southeast Sunday evening/Monday morning and slide well south and east of New England.  

18z NAM 1000-500 thickness, mslp, precip 1 PM Mon (image NCEP)

This will drop a decent amount of snow in the Mid Atlantic.  I see a general 4-8 with isolated higher amounts in VA, MD, PA, S NJ, and DE.  I don't see much in Southern New England.  Here is my expectation

02.03.14 Snow Expectation

Light snow moves in CT around 9-10 AM.  Most will fall between 11 am - 4 pm.  Monday night temps are upper teens/low 20's.  Tuesday is mostly sunny with temps in the mid 30's.  That brings us to storm #2.  Here is the upper level support Tuesday 7 PM

18z GFS 500 mb vorticity Tues 7 PM (image NCEP)

This will drive a surface low northeast towards the Great Lakes and then re-develop a low south of Long Island

WPC Surface Forecast 7 am Wednesday

The big issue with this storm is the lack of high pressure to the north.  Many of our storms this winter have had limited moisture and very cold temperatures that led to fluff bombs.  This storm is more like the first storm of the season in December that dumped snow/sleet/ice/rain.  There is a lot of moisture in this storm

WPC 5 day rainfall totals 

In SNE note most of that precip falls Wednesday.  It appears that this event begins early Wednesday AM and starts as Snow for everyone.  The flip to rain will be quick in SE MA, S RI, and SE CT.  Areas further north like Boston to Providence to Hartford should flip to sleet/freezing rain/ and plain rain by noon time.  The mix may extend in Southern Worcester County and out to Springfield but N & W of 495/Pike should stay all snow.  No amounts yet as I'm still debating which snow ratio's to use but here is a general guess

02.05.14 impact expectation

There is another shot at a storm next weekend, but I'll focus on that later.  I plan on doing a video tomorrow afternoon.  Have a good one.

-Zack Green

BUST! Story Becomes Bitter Cold

No way to sugarcoat it- this will go down as a bust for everyone outside of 495 and North of the Pike.  Here was my map from Monday Night

Snowfall Map from 1/20/14

Here is what we have so far 

Skywarn Snowfall Totals 507 am (NWS Boston)

I should have trimmed the 6-10 and brought the 3-6 into Southern Worcester County.  I also should not have included Cape Ann.  I can't call the Cape a bust yet, but I think it will be hard for it reach 10" given the current radar presentation 

NWS Northeast Regional Radar

We'll see, but overall I am not happy with the forecast.  I have a feeling I'll have plenty of chances to try again before the winter is over.  Now the big weather headline is bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills for awhile.

Current Conditions/Short Term Forecast

Here are the temperatures as of 4 am

4 am 2 m temps (image Weatherbell)

Bundle up...wind chills across Southern New England are running -10 to -15.  Here is one models wind chill temps as of 7 am

08z HRRR Wind Chill Temps valid 7 am (image Weatherbell)

The storm is well south and east of New England

WPC Northeast Surface Analysis 4 am 

High temperatures today will range from 15-20 for most.  On the Cape temps will be in the 20's

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image Weatherbell)

Even though this map shows a Winter Storm Warning still for Eastern MA/RI this will be dropped soon.  A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued in its place through 10 AM

NWS Boston Advisories 

Tonight a good portion of Southern New England goes below 0

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 6 am Thur (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures stay in the teens tomorrow.  This is nasty stuff.  I'll update later today as there is the potential for light snow on Saturday, but maybe enough to get crews on the roads. 

Bundle Up

-Zack Green

Video Blog on Storm

See previous blog for more details.  Have a good one

-Zack Green

Winter Storm to Impact Southern New England

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued Winter Storm Warnings for all of Southeastern New England and Blizzard Watches for the Cape, Islands, and Southern Plymouth County.

NWS Boston Advisories 

Low pressure will develop along a polar front and intensify south of New England.  This will bring heavy snow and high winds to Southeast New England

The Set-Up

An approaching Polar Front will cause temperatures to plummet tonight.  The front is approaching Worcester now (449 PM).  It shows up nice on radar

NWS Boston Radar 438 PM

Here is the front in the surface analysis as of 1 PM.  

WPC Surface Analysis Northeast US 1 PM 

Here are the temperatures behind the front

2 m temps 4 PM (image Weatherbell)

This cold will be locked in place so there no precipitation type issues.  Now lets take a look at how this system will evolve.  Here is the current Water Vapor Loop

NOAA GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite (415 PM)

Low pressure will develop in the Tennessee Valley this evening/overnight.  Here is the upper level at 1 am Tuesday

18z NAM 500 mb vort/heights 1 am Tues (image NCEP)

A surface low will have developed in Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee

WPC Surface Forecast 1 am Tuesday

By 7 PM tomorrow night the upper level looks like this

18z NAM 500 mb vort/heights Tues 7 PM (image NCEP)

That is an exciting 500 mb set up for weather weenies everywhere.  Here is the projected surface chart at the same time

WPC Surface Forecast 7 PM Tues

Short Term Forecast

After the snow squall this evening temperatures will steadily drop.  The high temperature for Tuesday may occur at Midnight in some locations.  Temps are around 10 around 7 am for many in the interior.  Temps in the coastal plain will be between 15-20 

18z NAM hires 2 m temps 7 am (image weatherbell)

The temps do not rise much tomorrow.  The Cape and Islands stay in the 20s and will rise to near 30 during the storm.  Everyone else is 15-20.  Winds will be out of the north at 5-10 mph.  

Timing

The first light flakes start falling around noon time but steady snow arrives to the CT coast around 1-2 PM.  This spreads to SE RI and MA by 3-4 PM.  The precipitation will build into Central and Eastern MA by 6-7 PM.  Snow lasts until 6-7 am for everyone except Eastern MA.  In Eastern MA snowfall will stop by 10 am, with the exception of the Outer Cape.

Winds

The strongest winds will occur where the Blizzard Watches are posted.  On the Cape and Islands will will be sustained 25-30 mph with gusts to 50.  Nantucket and the Outer Cape will likely see isolated gusts to 60 mph.  Inland winds will be sustained 15-20 mph with gusts to 40, isolated 45-50.

Snowfall

Now for what you have all been waiting for.  First of all here are my observations on the storm.

• Very cold, so a powdery snow like the 1/2/14 event
• Storm will track South and East of "benchmark" so heaviest precipitation remains offshore
• SE MA, Cape Ann the likely Jackpot areas
• Tougher call inland due to precipitation rates

I have little doubt this will be a memorable storm for SE MA.  Its not often the Cape and Islands get a storm that is all snow.  I think ocean enhancement north of Boston will set up a jackpot band there as well.  A lesson learned on 1/2/14 was that the cold doesn't always mean high snow ratio's.  In general weathercasters assume for every 1" of liquid precip that is 10" of snow.  When it gets colder snow can fall at ratios of 20 or even 30/1.  We saw this in Eastern MA on 1/2.  However inland the snow growth zone was not as good so even though there was about 0.6 inches of precip, only about 6-8 inches of snow fell.  

Issued 606 PM 01/20/14

I'm going to try and post a video tonight or tomorrow morning.  Take care, feel free to ask questions.

-Zack Green

Saturday NFL Playoff Weather

This is one of the best weekends of the year, Divisional Playoff Weekend.  Maybe that's because I am a Pats fan and my team is usually playing (12th time since 1996) but even in the rare off years the football is excellent.  Weather will impact both Saturday games. Without further ado...

General Weather
Two storms are affecting the Continental US today.  A powerful storm is affecting the Northwest while another storm impacts the Eastern US.  Here is the surface analysis

WPC Surface Analysis 11 am EST

Temperatures in the east are warm and while it will rain in Seattle, the mountains in the Pacific Northwest will get buried with snow.Notice how tightly the isobars (solid lines) are packed together around Seattle and Boston.  This will increase this afternoon/evening

New Orleans (+9.5) @ Seattle Seahawks  (O/U) 43.5  430 EST

Seattle is a difficult place to play regardless of the weather.  Temperatures at kickoff project to be around 45

16z HRRR 2 m temperatures valid 2 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures may jump to 47-48 throughout the game but there will be no significant changes.  Rainfall on the hand will increase as the game goes.  There has been a lull so far this morning but the radar looks healthy 

National Weather Service Pacific Northwest Regional Radar Loop (138 PM EST)

Short range high resolution weather models agree on an increase in rain and intensity in Seattle this afternoon

12z NAM hires Simulated Radar 4 PM (image Weatherbell)

The final factor is the winds which will be sustained at 25-30 mph.  Gusts to 50 will be possible with any of the heavier rain bands

12z NAM hires 10 m winds 5 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-7.5)  (O/U) 50.5  815 PM EST 

Gillette is also a tough place to play but recent playoff teams have come into Gillette and knocked out the Patriots.  Indy doesn't seem to be the type of team that can come into Gillette and win.  Baltimore and the Jets play tough defense and had swagger across the board.  But Andrew Luck looks legit so you never know.  Here is the current temperatures in New England

RTMA 2 m temperatures 1 PM ESRT (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures are in the upper 50's across Southeastern New England and these aren't going to fall much this afternoon into this evening

12z NAM hires 2 m temps 8 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

At kickoff the temp will be 57 at Gillette and will only fall to 53 or so by midnight.  Considering the Divisional Playoff Game 10 years ago at Gillette was the coldest game in Patriots history we'll take this.  That was the Tennessee game as the Pats won their 13th straight on route to a Super Bowl and a record 21 game winning streak.  

Rain will be a huge factor.  Here is the current radar

National Weather Service Northeast Regional Radar Loop (148 PM)

Short range guidance indicates a steady rain all game with the potential for a soaking rain in the first half. 

17z HRRR Simulated Radar 9 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

With these soaking rains comes high winds.  Sustained winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts up to 50 possible.  A wind advisory is in place from 4-11 PM at Foxboro so winds will also lessen throughout the game.  May want to look at second half lines for this game.  

Enjoy, I will post for Carolina-San Fran and Denver-San Diego tomorrow

-Zack Green