Weekend Weather Take 5/25/13

A stalled low off the Eastern New England coast and strong high pressure over the Great Lakes/Canada are contributing to a miserable Saturday.  The highest elevations of Northern New England will see snow today/tonight, perhaps over 6 inches in some spots.  There could be more but honestly I am not familiar with late May mountain snows so this will be a educational storm in that regard.  Sunday is less wet and will start out overcast.  However as the low pulls away sunshine will break out from south to north.  Monday is the pick of the long weekend.  Temperatures look to return to the 80's towards the middle of next week.

Observations
Here is the northeast sea level pressure and radar, from the SPC mesoscale page

14z SPC Northeast mesoanalysis 

The zoomed in Southern New England radar shows much of the action is west of Rt. 146 into Western MA and NW CT

NWS Boston Radar 1035 am

These are the same regions that have been peppered with rain all week.  Here is the storm total from Thursday 3 am to Saturday 1020 am

NWS Boston radar estimate precipitation totals

We can see the low, the cold front, and the high pressure all contributing to this rain on the national surface analysis

WPC surface analysis 930 am

That is why the regional temperatures are in the 40's on MAY 25!!

2 m temps 9 am (image weatherbell)

Short Term Forecast

The coastal low is going to take its sweet time pulling away as a strong ridge is present over the North Atlantic Ocean.  So for today lets call high temperatures in the low 50's in Eastern MA, RI and Cape Cod.  From 495/95 west temperatures will be in the mid 40s (includes CT).  In NW Worcester County and the Berkshires temps will be right around 40.

12z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)

The entire afternoon will be gray with on/off rain.  Some bands will be moderate, others just light.  Tonight temperatures drop into the mid 30's.  A closed low at the mid levels of the atmosphere is driving this (and will lead to snow)

00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly Sat 8 pm (image weatherbell)

Elevations above 2000 ft will see snow.  This is certainly rare for Memorial Day weekend.  Sunday starts overcast but breaks of sun will occur from South to North starting around 8 am in CT and the Connecticut River Valley.  Northeast MA will struggle to kick out the clouds.  Areas that break into sunshine will jump into the upper 50s/low 60s.

12z NAM hires 2 m temp Sun 4 pm (image weatherbell)

Temperatures drop to the low to mid 40's on Sunday night.  For those attending services Monday morning it will be sunny, yet it will be chilly.  Temps at 8 am will be in the low 50s

12z NAM hires 2 m temps Mon 8 am (image weatherbell)

High pressure will slowly be building towards the coast and in position to advect warm air back into New England

WPC surface forecast Monday 8 am

We won't quite get there Monday, but with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's it will be a very nice late spring day

12z NAM hires 2 m temps Mon 2 PM (image weatherbell)

I'm sure several areas hit 70 on Monday.  Most likely in CT or the CT River Valley of MA (Springfield, Chicopee etc).

Medium Range Outlook

Tuesday and Wednesday both are similar.  High pressure will build offshore on Tuesday allowing temperatures to rise into the low 70's.  Tuesday will be dry

WPC surface forecast Tuesday 

That warm front will lift across the region on Wednesday bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be in the low 70's, but once the warm front lifts north temperatures return to the 80's.  This likely will not happen until Thursday

00z EURO precip Wed 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Long Range

A ridge will build in the east and widespread 80's are likely across Southern New England into next weekend.  The CPC 6-10 outlook is onboard

CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook

Anytime we get hot weather in New England we need to be alert for severe weather.  However once we get through tomorrow things will warm up.

Weather News of the Week
The dominant story of the week occurred in Moore, OK on Monday.  A catastrophic EF-5 killed 24, injured hundreds and created a swath of damage over a mile wide.  Damage will approach $2 billion dollars.

Images CNN, Moore tornado

There are staggering images all over the internet.  Unfortunately we are returning to a climate that is favorable for strong violent tornadoes.  Tornadoes, on a general level, feed off the temperature clash between the warm moist Gulf of Mexico and the cool dry Canadian air.  Throw in a strong unstable jet stream that is common in the spring and tornadoes are formed.  The 1950's began an active tornado period that lasted through the 1970's

NOAA/SPC strong tornado climo 1954-2012

2011 was a deadly year reminiscent of 1953 and 1974.  1953 isn't listed on here, but multiple violent tornadoes combined to kill hundreds of Americans from Texas to Michigan to Massachusetts.  

The second major story was the fact that NOAA released its annual Hurricane Season forecast.  Its not so much a forecast as it is a blend of averages.  They predict 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes and an ACE index 105-210% of average.  Basically its a blend of a non el nino warm AMO.  13-7-3 is a typical warm AMO.  20-11-6 is what I find more likely to happen based on the Sea Surface temperature pattern and the fact that a ENSO cold biased neutral is developing in the Pacific.  

5.23.13 NOAA sea surface temp anomaly

What does this mean? In recent years Hurricane activity has ramped up along the east coast.  Again this is similar to the 1950's 

US Major Hurricane Landfall 1950's

This only counts MAJOR hurricanes, category 3 or higher.  The US has not been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 05.  Granted Ike was close and Sandy was a monster and they leveled the coastlines they impacted.  However if Sandy were a true major hurricane devastating structural damage would have occurred much further inland.  

So now we see Hurricanes and Tornadoes displaying similar patterns to the 1950's just like the ocean's.  This past spring set many records for cold and snow that last occurred in the 1950's.  Is climate change really man driven or is it driven by changes in the oceans?

Ugly Saturday, Improvement Sun-Mon

I apologize for not posting last night as my prediction about Freshman baseball cam true- 3.5 hour marathon.  Onto the discussion

Observations/Short Range Forecast
A pair of cold fronts with surface lows are approaching the east coast as High pressure digs into the Central US

WPC Surface Analysis 330 am

The cold front is evident in the temperature chart as it is in the 60's across much of New England.  Enjoy it as for some of us the high temperature will occur this morning

2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)

The radar is active, although a dry slot is present across much of Central Southern New England

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 618 am

More showers will develop and work inland as the low pushes towards the coast.  Flash flooding will be an issue in Western MA and CT.  Look at the radar estimated rainfall from yesterday

NWS Boston storm total estimate 5/23/13

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting another 0.25-0.50 inches of rain today alone

WPC Day 1 precip forecast

By 2 PM the cold front and surface wave should be near Worcester.  Here is the projected surface chart

WPC surface forecast Friday 2 PM

Temperatures will look like this- its easy to see the cold front

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)

The high pressure in the Midwest will be escorting an abnormally cold airmass into the Northeast for Saturday-Sunday. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40's.  There will be a few breaks of rain throughout the night but it will be unsettled.  Tomorrow morning the front and low pressure stall off the MA coast.  This will send waves of cold rain into New England

WPC surface forecast Saturday 8 am

High temperatures will be in the 40's

06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 PM Sat (image weatherbell)

The WPC likes an additional 0.25-0.50 tomorrow

WPC Day 2 precipitation

The surface chart on Saturday Night

WPC Surface Forecast 8 PM Sat 

This is largely driven by a strong upper level low at the 500 mb level

00z EURO 500 mb heights Sat 8 pm (image weatherbell)

If you are heading North...several models support a significant snowfall at the higher elevations Saturday night.

06z NAM hires snow accumulation thru Sun AM (image weatherbell)

Mt. Washington observations will be fun to watch Saturday Night.  Never the less the system should clear on Sunday leaving overcast to clearing skies and temperatures in the low 60's in Western New England, Upper 50s in Eastern New England.  Monday will be in the mid to upper 60's

00z EURO 2 m temps Mon PM (image weatherbell)

Have a good Friday.

Still Warm, Still Humid

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Western New England today while most of Eastern New England will be warm and humid.  Its possible that around 5 PM some stronger storms will move into Worcester County.  A few showers around 8-9 am will also be possible in Eastern CT, RI, and Eastern MA.

SPC day 1 outlook

The primary threat from these thunderstorms will be large hail and damaging winds, although the atmospheric environment has proven favorable for tornado development the past few days.  

Observations/Short Range

Current temperatures are in the 50's from Worcester to Boston and North, upper 50's to low 60's for the South and West Zones. 

2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)

Temperatures will warm much quicker today as the boundary is already located in Central MA.  Here is the water vapor satellite with the surface fronts superimposed 

GOES_East Water Vapor Sat 515 am

The infrared shot over the Northeast is picking up a batch of showers crossing Long Island Sound

RB Infrared Satellite 545 am

Here is the regional radar

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 609 am

These showers will move northeast and should make NE CT, N RI, SE MA up to Boston a little damp this morning.  After skies will clear and temperatures will climb to near 80 this afternoon

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 1 pm (image weatherbell)

Dew points will be in the mid 60's.  Sunshine will be more abundant today than yesterday so a greater thunderstorm threat exists.  Decent energy will be available for thunderstorm growth

10z RAP CAPE 2 PM (image weatherbell)

This is CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy.  Tonight temperatures stay in the 60's.  A cold front from the West will move through New England tomorrow with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures max near 70 in Southeast New England, but the warmest temperatures for the western regions will occur between Midnight and 7 am.  

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)

That's all for now, A detailed Friday/Weekend forecast will be up before the Bruins game tonight (provided my Freshman baseball team does not play a 3.5 hour marathon.  Always possible- in that case update will be there by 1st intermission)  Have a good one.

Another Warm, Humid Afternoon

A cold front dropped South yesterday afternoon slashing temperatures and firing off some severe thunderstorms.  That front will turn back into a warm front this morning and lift north of the region again.  Temperatures will again soar into the 80's and dew points will approach 70.  Therefore just like yesterday some big thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

Current Conditions/Observations
As of 4 am most of New England was around 50 degrees

2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)

Temps in NYC are already near 70 so a sharp temperature gradient is already in place.  Not surprisingly there is heavy shower activity in the region, in association with a weak wave of low pressure

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am

The front was located just south of New England as of 330 am

WPC Surface Analysis 330 am 

By 8 am the front will be lifting into Central New England

WPC surface forecast 8 am

Short Range Forecast

Temperatures will take a bit longer to recover this morning due to the presence of scattered showers.  The rain clear by 8 and by 11 temps will be near 70.  When the sun pops out it feel hazy hot and humid.  Here are the dew points at 2 PM

06z NAM hires 2 m dew points 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Temperatures at 4 pm 

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)

This may be overdone, but after seeing a few locations in Western MA and CT reach 90 yesterday I don't think it is.  NYC will be near 95 with a dew point in the low 70's.  That is oppressive.  Just like yesterday some areas in NE MA will struggle to get out of the low 60's.  The SPC does not (yet) see the severe threat but it does see a thunderstorm threat

SPC Day 1 outlook

I think the yellow moves east into at least Western New England.  Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon.  Tonight temperatures drop to the mid 50's from the MA/RI/CT border northward.  Temps should sit around 60 in CT/RI as the boundary does not clear Southern New England like it did tonight.  

Thursday- High 80, dew points mid 60's, scattered showers and thunderstorms

Temperatures will warm into the 70's by mid morning tomorrow.  High pressure in Central Canada will finally drive the cold front that has been pounding the Central US off the east coast.  This will bring showers and storms to the area in the afternoon and evening hours.

WPC surface forecast Thurs PM 

Thursday night SNE stays in the low 60's.  On Friday a wave of low pressure will form along the front and throw more showers and thunderstorms into New England.

Friday- High 72, dew point low 60's, overcast with rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Some may be severe.  

WPC surface forecast Friday 8 am

When the front passes temperatures will drop into the 50's.  Here is the 2 pm temperatures

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Fri (image weatherbell)

Maximum temps on Friday will occur in the morning from Worcester County on west (including N RI, CT).  There is the potential for a lot of rain in the next 3 days.  Here is the WPC idea

WPC 3 day precip totals

Memorial Day Weekend First Look

The forecast is not good.  Saturday will be overcast and wet.  I'm not ready to call it a washout yet but its trending that way.  High temperatures Saturday afternoon will be running nearly 25 degrees below normal

00z EURO 2 m temp anomaly Sat PM (image weatherbell)

High temperatures will be around 50.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 30's.  This is significant late season cold.  Sunday is not much better but there will be less cold.  Monday is the day to cookout as it will be dry with temps in the 60's.  Here is the weekend precipitation

WPC day 4-5 precip outlook

This is mainly Saturday as a slow moving coastal low makes the weather miserable.  I'll track any storms this afternoon, have a good one.