High Wind Warning Headlines Sunday Weather Discussion

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

With most of Sunday's precipitation behind us, a soggy Southern New England now must prepare for strong winds tonight through Monday evening.  Winds out of the W and NW will be sustained at 20-40 MPH with gusts as high as 65 MPH possible.  There is a real threat for damage to trees, power lines, and property.  For that reason, the National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *High Wind Warning* from 10 PM this evening until 7 PM Monday evening.  Traveling will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

NWS Boston Sunday Early PM Headlines (click to enlarge)

General Overview
Surface low pressure is moving through Southeastern New England.  Winds out of the northeast are allowing for the continuous drizzle this afternoon.  This low is part of a larger storm system that is responsible for severe weather and flooding deaths in parts of the south, along with blizzard conditions in the Midwest and Great Lakes.  This is part of the same storm system that brought snow flurries to Los Angeles and Las Vegas during the week. 

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Sunday 7 PM

As the parent low decays in Southeastern Ontario, the secondary low (which is really an open wave) that brought the rain to New England will begin to absorb energy from the parent low as it tracks in the Canadian  Maritimes.  The secondary low will deepen into a strong storm with a pressure of around 970 mb.  At the same time, strong, broad high pressure will descend into the Upper Midwest.  It will have pressure around 1040 mb. 

WPC Surface Fronts.Precipitation Monday 1 PM

Winds have not been a major problem so far this winter because temperatures have often increased from the surface into the lowest levels of the atmosphere.  This is known as an inversion and acts as a barrier to keep the strongest low-level winds above our heads.  This will not be the case tomorrow.  Cold, dry arctic air will begin spilling in from the Northwest this evening.  This is an efficient way for the low-level winds to reach the surface. 

Timing & Impacts
Temperatures this evening will fall from the low 40's to the upper 20's by morning.  Temperatures will stay in the 20s for most of the day in Worcester County and Northeast MA.  Temperatures will rise into the low 30's across Southeast MA.  It will feel much colder thanks to the roaring winds.  Wind chill values will be in the mid to upper teens in Western and Central MA and low 20's across Eastern MA.

12z EURO(1 hr) 2 m Wind Chill Temperatures Monday 2 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Winds tonight will begin to increase around 10 PM.  Light sleepers are in for a rough night as wind gusts will slowly increase from 30 MPH to 45 MPH by morning.  The potential overnight is for isolated to perhaps scattered power outages from downed tree limbs.  There is also the potential for snow squalls that will hit at various times overnight through the morning commute.

20z HRRR Simulated Radar Monday 5-9 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

The snow squalls will not only cause briefly hazardous travel conditions but also will serve as the entrance music for the main event.  The main event is sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with winds gusts of 45-65 MPH from 10 AM to 6 PM.  Scattered to widespread tree and powerline damage is likely.   Wind gusts of 60+ MPH are most likely between 1-4 PM. 

NWS Max Wind Gusts Forecast

The winds will only relent somewhat on Tuesday.  Temperatures will also be colder, with wind chill temperature near or just below 0 in the morning and will not improve much during the day.  The coldest day of the week is Wednesday, with wind chills -10 to -15 below Wednesday morning.   If your power does go out, it may be a few days for it to come back on.  These cold temperatures will be living in unheated buildings unrealistic so you may want to consider a backup plan, just in case. 

Other Thoughts
I think tomorrow's event will be more widespread in magnitude thanks to the amount of precipitation that has fallen in Southern New England since last summer.  Just in Southern Worcester County, observations taken at Worcester Airport and the Blackstone River at Sutton Street/Providence Road in Northbridge show anomalies of + 15.00" since July 1, 2018.

These anomalies exist all across Southern New England.  The Quabbin reservoir is 100.6 % full and the Wachusett reservoir is 93% full.  It wasn't all that long ago (2-3 years) that moderate to major drought conditions were widespread in New England. 

MWRA Quabbin Water Levels Jan 2000-2018

While that is good, the water table is nearly full.  The soil has lots of moisture.  Again, that is positive on the agricultural side it will also make trees uproot more easily.  March and April are also months where we tend to get a lot of rain.  It will be interesting to see if the precipitation trend continues.  If it does, big river flooding trouble is in our future.  In the meantime, stay safe tomorrow. 

-Zack Green

This Is Not A Recording; Snow to Ice to Rain Tonight

Stop me when you've heard this forecast lead before; a fast moving winter storm will start as snow tonight before changing to sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain after midnight.  Light snow and ice amounts are expected but the Thursday AM commute is likely to be slippery in Central, Metrowest, and Northeast Massachusetts.

NWS Headlines
The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Weather Advisory* from 7 PM this evening until 7 AM Thursday morning for all of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands. 

NWS Boston Headlines 

A Winter Weather Advisory means periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will cause travel difficulties.  Expect slippery conditions and use caution when driving. 

General Overview
Strong high pressure is control today.  Temperatures started in the single digits and teens and they will rebound in the low to mid 20's.  Fun fact- the jet stream is ripping along above our heads.  A flight was measured at 801 mph as it got embedded in 200+ mph winds around 35,000 feet up.  This is good if you are flying to Europe, bad if you have to fly to the west coast.

00z EURO 300 mb winds Tuesday 7 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

The fast jet will keep traffic in the atmosphere moving along.  The high pressure will slide east today as a storm system develops along the Gulf Coast, lifts northeast, and reforms near the Mid-Atlantic coast.  High level clouds will increase throughout the day, but precipitation will hold off in Central and Eastern MA until after 7 PM.

WPC Surface Forecast Fronts, Precipitation Wednesday 1 PM, 7 PM, Thursday 1 AM, 7 AM

Cold surface temperatures will linger in Central and Northeast MA all night so it is likely that all precipitation that falls will be frozen north of a Brockton to Foxboro to Smithfield, RI line.   However, temperatures on Thursday will rise into the 40's across most of Southern New England so we aren't worried about everything turning to cement.

Timing/Impacts
Snow will begin after 7 PM in Worcester and Boston.  Snow will be light from 7 until 10, increasing around 11, and peaking from 12-2 AM.  Between 2-3, snow will transition to sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  All precipitation ends around 6 AM. 

12z HRRR Simulated Radar Wed 4 PM to Thur 7 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

Although surface temperatures will be in the mid 20's across Central and Northeast MA, warm temperatures aloft will limit the ability for snow growth in the mid layers, limiting snow totals on the ground.  That said, a general 2-4" is likely followed by up to 0.10" of ice.  Some communities closer to the NH/MA border could see up to 4". 

12z HRRR total snow *click to enlarge (Image WeatherModels.com)

For the Thursday AM commute, traffic is lighter than normal this week thanks to school vacation.  That will help keep congestion down, but it will still be a slow go.  Unlike last weeks storm, precipitation will end closer to 6 AM, which will delay the clean up.  I anticipate the main roads being fine, but untreated side roads will be slippery.  If you have the option to work from home, it is a not a bad idea to exercise that right.  The roads will be fine by the afternoon, but why spend the time commuting when you can be working? (Practicing for my boss). 

I will update again if needed.

-ZG

Winter Storm To Significantly Impact Tuesday PM Commute

A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to Southern New England Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.  Snow will begin Tuesday afternoon and will fall moderately to heavy at times through the evening commute.  Snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain after 7 PM and will change to rain after 1 AM.  The rain will end before the Wednesday AM commute. 

NWS Headlines

NWS Headlines

A *Winter Storm Watch* is in effect.  Some parts of this watch will be converted to a warning, while others will be converted to an advisory.  Either way, the impact to the evening commute remains the biggest threat. 

General Details

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Monday 7 PM, Tuesday 7 AM, PM, Wednesday 7 AM, PM

High pressure is currently building to the north.  Light northerly winds will bring cold, dry air into Southern New England this evening.  By morning, temperatures will be in the low to mid-teens.  Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20's when precipitation arrives as snow Tuesday Afternoon.  Snowfall rates of 1-2"/per hour are possible between 3-7 PM. 

18z HRRR Sim Radar/P Type Tuesday 7 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Snow transitions to sleet and freezing rain from south to north starting after 6 PM.  Warm air will begin to move in aloft.  It should reach the Worcester and Boston area after 7 PM.  Frozen precipitation will fall until 1-2 AM before finishing as a bit of rain Wednesday morning as surface warming finally catches up to the warming aloft. 

Storm Totals
A general 3-6" of snow will fall before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain.  

NWS Expected Snowfall (Click to enlarge)

A total of 0.1 to 0.2" of ice accretion is expected, which is below damage thresholds.  

NWS Expected Ice (click to enlarge)

Overall, this is not a huge deal except for the snowfall during the Tuesday PM commute.  It also adds more water to the system, which is near capacity.  If this weather pattern continues, spring flooding is going to be a story around here. 

-Zack Green

01.20.19 Winter Storm Live Blog

Post 1- 659 AM

Good Morning all.  Keep your electronics charged today.  After around 5" of snow overnight, precipitation has changed over to sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  There is a heck of a temperature gradient across the Blackstone Valley right now.

Wunderground Weather Station Temp Data 650 AM

Temperatures are in the teens and low 20's in the 01534 section of Northbridge, Grafton. Sutton, Millbury, Auburn, and Worcester.  Temps are in the upper 20's in the Whitinsville section of Northbridge and low 30's in Mendon, Uxbridge, and Blackstone.  Here is a zoomed in look at Northbridge.

Wunderground Temperature Station Temp Data 650 AM

There is a 10-degree difference from Linwood Ave to Sutton Street.  I will have my eyes glued to this data today.  There is a mix of sleet and freezing rain falling right now.  Plain rain is so close, in Blackstone and Bellingham.

AccuWeather Boston Local Radar 645 AM

I suspect the rain will make it into Northbridge but I don't see those 15-20 degree temps being dislodged from Douglas, Sutton, Millbury, Auburn, and Worcester.  That means a long duration ice event is underway.

Post 2 744 AM

One hour later, and a definitive cooling trend at the surface.  The rain line has been pushed back to Franklin, MA.  Temps that were 29-30 an hour ago in Northbridge and Uxbridge are now 24/27 degrees.  I hope you have a radio ready.  I'm going to reach out to Scott Zolak and let him know he may have a bigger audience than usual tonight.

Post 3 852 AM

The power outage map from National Grid can be found here.  The MEMA power outage map can be found here.  So far, 546 customers are without power in Massachusetts.  I do not believe the rain-snow line will make any more progress into Southern Worcester County.  If you currently have sleet and freezing rain, you will likely continue with that all day.

So how do we get sleet and freezing rain when its this cold at the surface?  We have warm air in a layer above the surface.  Its roughly 40 degrees at 5000 feet.

National Weather Service Precipitation Type Temp Profile

Post 4 930 AM

The power outage map is up to 2000 customers.  The majority of those are in and around the Boston area.  The colder than expected temperatures are actually good in Central Massachusetts.  I think we will see more sleet than freezing rain.  The freezing rain threat is shifting south towards the Boston to Providence corridor.  That doesn't mean we are off the hook in the Blackstone Valley.  When the winds increase this afternoon I expect scattered outages.

MEMA Outages map

Elsewhere, a strong band of rain and wind is approaching Southeastern Massachusetts.  Some wind damage will be possible as that reaches Martha's Vineyard and Buzzards Bay.

COD Weather Center NEXRAD 1 km Radar 

Some heavier precipitation will arrive in Southern Worcester County over the next 1-3 hours.

Post 5 1055 AM

The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for an additional 0.25-0.50 inches of ice accreditation through 7 PM tonight.

NWS Additional Ice Accumulation Forecast

This would be a moderate to major winter event according to a new experimental National Weather Service product.

Ice Storm Severity Index (New and Experimental)

A Flash Freeze is a major threat in SE MA, RI, and CT.

Flash Freeze Severity Index (New and Experimental)

The radar suggests that the heaviest precipitation is yet to come for Southern Worcester County into Northeast Massachusetts.  Look at this moisture feed.

COD Weather Center NEXRAD 2 km radar 11 AM

This heavy precipitation will increase the amount of ice on the power lines and tree limbs.

Post 6 1245 PM

A *Wind Chill Advisory* has been issued from tonight at 9 PM until tomorrow at 12 PM.  Here is the text from the National Weather Service.

Air temperatures will be near 0 with winds gusting to 30 MPH out of the NW. 

-ZG

Final Thoughts As Winter Storm Approaches Region

The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Storm Warning* for Western, Central and Northeastern Massachusetts.  A *Winter Weather Advisory* has been issued for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and parts Southeastern Massachusetts.

NWS Headlines Saturday 3 PM

Each subregion of Southern New England (SNE) faces unique hazards from this storm system.  The biggest snow totals will be confined to Northern New England but over a foot is possible in Northwest Massachusetts.  The highest totals in Central and Eastern MA will be in the communities along the NH/MA border, away from the immediate coast.  Meanwhile, river, coastal, and flash flooding are all hazards along the South Coast, Cape, and Islands.  Some minor river flooding is possible in parts of Rhode Island.  In the middle, where most people reading this blog live, we will see snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain.  The snow will be heavy at times, the sleet will heavy at times, and the freezing rain/rain will be heavy at times.  Got all that?  Let's break it down.

Timing

Precipitation begins as snow starting around 7 PM. Flurries this afternoon shouldn't stick to the roads.  Snow will be flying everywhere, including the Cape and Islands, by 10 PM.  Snow will begin to stick around this time too.  Temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 20's.  After midnight, the snow/mix/rain line begins to advance north as warmer air surges in.  Sleet gets into Northern RI/South Central MA around 4 AM.  This line gets to Worcester/Framingham/Boston by 5 AM and into the Lowell/Lawerence area by 7 AM.  South of the Pike in Eastern MA and all of RI will be plain rain by 8 AM.  

18z HRRR precip type/qpf Sat 7 PM- Sun 6 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Freezing rain will develop in CT and Central/Western MA around 7-8 AM.  0.25-0.40 inches of ice is possible which is not good for travel or the power grid, especially with 30-40 MPH wind gusts.  The latest computer models are pretty warm so hopefully, we flip to plain rain tomorrow in the Blackstone Valley.  However, this wouldn't happen until late morning/early afternoon, and we will finish with freezing rain tomorrow evening so travel will be very difficult tomorrow.  But, we could save ourselves the tree/powerline problems.

How Much Snow/Ice/Precipitation?

Snow

Expected Snow (via NWS Boston)

Plowable snow for sure, falling fast between midnight and 4 AM.

Ice

Expected Ice (via NWS Boston)

Tomorrow morning through early evening.  There is high uncertainty with this forecast.

In total, there will be 2-3" of precipitation with this system.

Frigid Monday

With all that liquid on the ground, a flash freeze will occur regionwide tomorrow evening.  Any untreated surfaces will become skating rinks.  Temperatures will drop into the single digits by Monday morning and will stay there.  Wind chill temperatures on Monday will be below zero.  It will be a miserable day to be outside.

Thank You NWS Employees
If you want me to just "stick to the weather", have a great day, thanks for reading!  I have something I need to get off my chest and I'm getting political.

The National Weather Service is working without pay during this government shutdown.  Yes, they will get back pay but a lot of people live paycheck to paycheck or pretty close.  I feel for the younger employees like me, several of whom are friends of mine.  I would not be able to run this blog without the products and messaging from the National Weather Service.  During the duration of the government shutdown, I have not noticed any problems with NWS or the data they offer.  It is a testament to their commitment to their job.  They had to endure this hatchet piece from the Washington Post which ran for 11 days before someone finally published a correction.  That correction was prompted by AccuWeather who wrote a rather tasteless, shameless promotion of their own product.  AccuWeather's tone was bad, but when the well known and highly regarded WaPo writes a story like that, I'm not sure you can fault a private company for trying to capitalize/respond after an anonymous source told the WaPo, "You're forecast will suffer!"

The weather community rallied to the NWS's defense after the AccuWeather article.  AccuWeather updated the story and made it softer.  That is a good thing.  As I stated above, all of the meteorology community relies on the public sector as the leading communicator for watches and warnings, as well as data for the GFS, NAM, HRRR and other weather models.  There wasn't a need to kick them when they are down.  However, there were crickets with a few minor exceptions, most notably Dr. Ryan Maue, after the WaPo hit piece.

This headline is still up -- and is quite unfortunate especially with the top-notch efforts by our (unpaid) National Weather Service staff.

The forecasts for this dangerous Winter Storm will not be worse! pic.twitter.com/7EhN1pSoyq

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 18, 2019

AccuWeather's CEO Barry Myers stepped down on January 1 and has been nominated by President Trump to take over as the director of NOAA.  AccuWeather has also rubbed people in the meteorological community the wrong way for it's 45 and 90-day forecasts, and issuing their own warnings to clients for tornadoes.  The meteorological community is heavily slanted towards left-leaning folks, often with pressure from the academic climate change community.  The vitriol towards AccuWeather came out this week.  After silence on the WaPo story, a weather twitter mob swarmed upon the State College, PA based company.  This tells me that folks in the weather community are okay with smearing the NWS if you blame in on the orange man in the White House.  It shows that like everything else, meteorology is politicized.  The AccuWeather piece has hurt some feelings, while the Washington Post article was downright harmful to the meteorological community and to the amount of faith people (or lack thereof) have in meteorologists to get the forecast right.  It's a shame the reaction wasn't to call out the Post immediately after the article. 

I'll do my absolute best to keep politics out of my blogs.  Sometimes, I just can't. 

-Zack Green

Winter Storm Watch Issued For Sunday, Heavy Precipitation Expected

The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.  Expected hazards include snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

NWS Headlines 01.17.19 330 PM

Without further ado...

Short Term Forecast

Some light snow will move in tonight, with little to no accumulation.  There could be some slick spots on the road tomorrow but it should be no problem.  Temperatures will max in the upper 30's/low 40's and we might even see some sun by tomorrow afternoon.  Temps Saturday will be in the 20's as we set the table for the winter sandwich of precipitation that is to come on Sunday.

Part 1 Saturday 8 PM- Sunday 5 AM

Snow begins to fly after 8 PM Saturday night.  Most of Southern New England is snowing by 10 PM, with the exception the immediate South Coast, Cape, and Islands where it will mix/rain.  Snow intensity peaks between 11 PM and 4 AM in Northern Rhode Island and Southern Worcester County.  By 3 AM, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will begin marching north through CT/RI/and SE MA.  Snow will begin to change to sleet and freezing rain in Northern RI/Southern Worcester County after 4 AM, with a complete change over by 5 AM.

12z ECMWF 1 hour precip type/MSLP Saturday 6 PM- Sunday 5 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

The majority of the snow that will fall in Central and Eastern MA, RI, and CT will fall during this overnight time frame.  Expect 5-10" with higher amounts near and north of Worcester and lighter amounts closer to Providence. 

Part 2 Sunday 5 AM- Sunday 5 PM

Periods of sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  The rain is likely confined to Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket counties in MA as well as most of RI and SE CT.  Elsewhere, there is a 30% chance of at least 0.25" of ice accretion from freezing rain for a good swath of CT, RI, and MA.

WPC Freezing Rain Probability 24 hours prior to Sunday 7 PM

This is significant threat to travel and the power grid.  Snow is one thing, sleet is a bit annoying as it increases the weight to plow/shovel/snow blow, but freezing rain can cause long duration power problems.   Winds will gust 20-35 MPH during the day when this freezing rain is falling.  That isn't a big deal usually, but when trees and power lines are being weighed down by ice it becomes a greater issue. 

12z ECMWF 1 hour precip type/MSLP Sunday 5 AM- Sunday 5 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Now there is hope that this model is overdoing the freezing rain and just get a sleet bomb out of this.  The American NAM model has lots of sleet and just a narrow band of freezing rain.  Either way it will be slippery, sloppy, and messy, but we won't have to deal with damage to the power grid in a sleet storm.  Somebody, even if it is localized, is going to get a long ice storm out of this I am afraid. 

Part 3- Sunday Evening-Monday

The system will end with 1-3" of snow and temperatures falling into the single digits/below 0 as we settle in to watch the AFC Championship Game. 

Takeaways

Be prepared to lose power for a few days.  It will be brutally cold on Monday and Tuesday.  Then root for sleet or rain instead of freezing rain.  We'll talk tomorrow and I can take questions after 8 PM on my Facebook page.

-Zack Green

Winter Returns With A Vengeance

If you are a member of my Facebook weather group (Blackstone Valley Weather Service- please like and share if you enjoy my work), you know that I was skeptical that we could see a big snowstorm this weekend.  Most of the storms this season have cut to our west and brought plain rain.  When the computer models started to show that happening again, it seemed reasonable.  Well something changed last night.  Specifically, the low pressure center that will lift out of the Southern Plains is now modeled to move along the South Coast, instead of to our west.  That changes the temperature profile from warm to cold.  That would mean more snow and ice.  I wanted to see the morning model runs before posting today.  When I saw the Euro model this morning....

(Super Troopers, h/t @chrishamptonwx)

Is there any snow before this weekend?
Yes! Some light snow will fall overnight Thursday into Friday AM.  Worcester will probably have a two hour delay because, well, that's all it takes in that city.  Everyone else will be able to handle it but salt and sand trucks will need to do a quick treatment of the roads.

01.16.19 12z NAM 3 km P-type Friday 5 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

 What are we facing this weekend?
A multi-faceted winter storm that will bring a heavy thump of snow and then a change over to sleet/freezing rain/rain for some, before finishing everywhere as snow.  This part of my thinking has not changed.  The difference now is that the thump of snow will be fast and furious and will hold on longer.  Unfortunately, the Blackstone Valley is right on the line between all snow, freezing rain, and rain.  The exact forecast will come into clearer focus tomorrow.

When will it start?
Snow will begin Saturday night, increasing in intensity after midnight.

When will it end?
After snowing into Sunday morning, a change to sleet and freezing rain will occur in parts of the region.  I'm not going to try and nail this today, but just know the Blackstone Valley, RI/CT, and SE MA all have a chance to see a long period of sleet and freezing rain.  It will go over to snow Sunday afternoon as the storm pulls away and Arctic air rushes in behind the system.  Snow may linger until Monday morning.

What will the temperatures be?
North of the Mass Pike, freezing.  South of the Mass Pike, it can be 10 degrees in one town and 35 degrees two towns over.   Everyone gets cold Sunday afternoon.  By Monday morning, most people are near 0 with many communities below 0.

Will it be windy?
There will be wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH at times.  Blowing snow will help to limit visibility.

What kind of snow are we getting? Snowball/snowman snow, cement, or fluffy?
It depends how much mixing we get.  Where it is all snow it will be light and fluffy.  If just sleet mixes in, it will be a nice mix of fluff and snowball type snow.  Where there is prolonged icing or rain, there will be cement snow.

Will there be power outages?
Unfortunately, yes.  Have a backup plan for the championship games.

How much snow can I expect?
Its looking significant.  I don't really do snow maps this early, but at least a foot is on the table in most communities.  The longer it snows, the more you get.  It's about time...

This storyline almost at an end. It's been real. No quieter winter on record Dec 1 to MLK Weekend. Time to move on and start the season. #wbz pic.twitter.com/GhxgW1yBJM

— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 16, 2019

I'll have much more tomorrow.  Winter has returned.  Let's go!

(TB 12, obviously)