Cold Start Tuesday, Warmer & Wet Tonight

It is another frigid morning in the cold valleys of interior SNE. Low pressure will track to our west today dislodging some of the cold air.  There will be some wintry precipitation is Western MA this afternoon.  Overall precipitation will have to overcome dry air in Southern New England so by the time it falls it will be as rain.   It is certainly colder this morning than originally anticipated.

Wunderground Weather Station Map 630 AM

Temperatures will stay cold through 9-10 AM.  It is coldest where the wind is calm.  The regional radar shows a band of showers associated with the warm air push in Western PA/NY.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

That is snow right now as the precipitation is well ahead of the actual storm system.  As the whole mess pushes east this changes to sleet/ice before going over to plain rain.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 1 PM

At 1 PM SNE temperatures will be near 30.

10z HRRR 2 m temps Tuesday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

By 7 PM some snow is falling in Central New England.

06z NAM hires sim radar Tuesday 7 PM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures will warm to near 40 by midnight.  As a result the ice threat diminishes.

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 1 AM Wednesday (image Weatherbell)

The heaviest rain peaks between 2-6 AM.  Here is 4 AM

06z NAM hires Sim radar Wednesday 4 AM (image Weatherbell)

Max temperatures for Wednesday will be in the AM.  Temps drop into upper 30's for PM but return near 50 on Thursday.  The thaw is on and might be around for a couple weeks.  That said it only takes a few hours for some snow to screw things up so we will be watching.  All records appear safe for the date.

-Zack Green

Monday (1/9/17) 7A to 7P

WPC Surface analysis Mon 1 PM and Tues 7 PM..

-Zack Green

Arctic Front This Afternoon Will Deliver Snow Squalls

An arctic air mass will re-enforce cold air this afternoon. As it passes through the region a few snow squalls will develop.  Travel conditions will briefly be hazardous when these squalls pass through between 3-9 PM tonight.  That National Weather Service has issued a *Special Weather Statement* to convey the threat message.  A quick inch of snow is possible but not everyone will see one of these squalls.  The snow will be added on top of what we saw yesterday.

NWS Boston observed snowfall 1/7/2017

Plymouth county was rocked as several communities were over 17" of snow including our State Champion for this event East Bridgewater who ended with 19.5".  I did expect more between 495-95 in NE MA and it started to stick 1 hour before my guess but other then that I feel good about the forecast.   

Short Term Forecast

Here is the simulated radar for 5 PM.  These locations shown with snow squalls may not be the communities that get the squalls but it shows the scattered nature of the event well.

16z HRRR sim radar Sunday 5 PM (image Weatherbell)

Max temps will only be near 20 as much of the US is below freezing today.  

NWS Max temps Sunday (image Weatherbell)

A NW wind will gust up to 20 MPH this afternoon.  The wind lessens overnight but temperatures will drop to about 5 above.  Even a modest 5-10 mph wind will create wind chills of 0 to -5 in Southern New England (lower out west).

16z HRRR Wind Chills temps Sunday 10 PM (image Weatherbell)

Its not much better tomorrow.  Clouds will increase but max temps will only reach the upper teens and low 20's.  Wind chills will be around 0 (both sides),  

NFL Forecast

Big games today.  I like the favorites but deep down I am still scared of playoff Eli.

Talk to you tomorrow.

-Zack Green 

Winter Storm Warning For Southern Worcester, Blizzard Warning Cape

I think we will be able to call this a major storm by the time all is said and done, especially in SE MA.  The National Weather Service has upgraded, modified, and added some advisories.  The Cape and SE Coastal MA are now under a *Blizzard Warning*.  The blizzard conditions are expected between 4-10 PM.  The *Winter Storm Warning* has been expanded for all of Eastern MA, Southern Worcester County, and Eastern Connecticut.  A *Winter Weather Advisory* has been issued in Northern Worcester County and Western MA (except Berkshires).

NWS Boston AM Headlines

Here is what we are looking at as of 745 AM.  First up here is the water vapor satellite for the Eastern US.  Looking at satellite pictures of developing winter storms is something I geek out over every single storm.

GOES_East Saturday AM Water Vapor Satellite Loop (image NCEP/NOAA/NWS)

The surface low is currently just off the NC/SC coast.  It will gain strength as it moves northeast.

WPC Surface Analysis Saturday 4 AM 

It is snowing heavily in SE VA.  The city of Virginia Beach, VA is under a blizzard warning right now and I'm watching Jim Cantore get blasted at the beach.  This will be a fun one in SE New England as this precipitation shield spreads across our area.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

Thanks to high pressure to our north temperatures are plenty cold for snow in the interior.  Its in the single digits in Northern Worcester County and Western MA.  Temperatures are in the upper teens outside of SE MA and these will only rise to the low 20's when the snow begins.

11z HRRR 2 m temps Saturday 12 PM (image Weatherbell)

The timing and totals remain the same.  I like the NWS numbers

NWS Snowfall total

For timing please see my previous blog here.

Moderate Snowfall for Southeastern New England

The trend so far this winter season has been low pressure systems to track through the Great Lakes.  This track helps develop a new low pressure system near the Mid Atlantic coast.  Although there has been some Arctic air in place at times it is unable to hold and low pressure tracks over SE MA changing precipitation quickly from snow to rain inside 495 and south of the Pike,  Hartford and Worcester are at or near average when it comes to snow to date.  Coastal Boston and Providence have switched to rain much more frequently then the interior Worcester and Hartford.

The snow this AM and tomorrow's  storm will help change that.  A wave of low pressure will deepen as it passes south and east of New England on Saturday.  This event will produce 3-6" of snow across Worcester, Middlesex, Essex and Suffolk counties in MA and Northern Providence County in RI.  A larger swath of 6-10" is likely across Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable counties.  A foot is likely on Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  6-10" is also likely across Kent, Bristol, Washington and Southern Providence counties in Rhode Island.  Snow begins late morning and ends before midnight.  

General Overview
The National Weather Service has issued a *Winter Storm Warning* for much of Eastern MA and all of RI.  A *Winter Weather Advisory* is up in NE CT, Southern Worcester County and the rest of Eastern MA.  The trend has been west today so it is conceivable that these all shift further west by tomorrow AM.

NWS Boston Headlines Friday PM 

 Temperatures tonight will drop into teens tonight.  Clouds will increase as the low moves northeast which will prevent temps from dropping into the single digits.  Notice how widespread these are in New York and the Northern New England states.

NWS min temps Saturday AM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures will warm into the upper 20's/low 30's in SE MA and the Cape/Islands.  Temperatures stay in the teens and low 20's outside of SE MA.

NWS Max temps Saturday (image Weatherbell)

Track and Timing
Here is the surface chart evolution of the storm system.  The low will collect moisture in the Gulf of Mexico and bring winter weather into the South.   From there it will move south and east of New England and gain some strength as it does.

There are winter storm warnings in GA, TN, SC and NC all the way into Southern New England.

NWS Eastern Region Headlines

Snow will break out between 10am-noon The heaviest snow in Central MA is in the 1-7 PM window.  Conditions in SE MA deteriorate after 1 PM.  There will be a few breaks in the snow towards dinner time for some.  Snow will pick up in intensity again around 8 PM before tapering off after 11 PM.

18z NAM hires 4km sim radar Saturday 11 A, 3, 8, 11 P (image Weatherbell)

 Snow Totals
The highest snow totals in Worcester from a single storm are 6.0 on December 17 and 5.9 on December 29-30.  Worcester may tie this given the cold temperatures and associated "fluff factor" that comes with the snow.  4-6" sounds good in Southern Worcester County but a 20 mile shift west and that becomes 6-10".  I think most of the snow piles up in the early PM and then again around 7-9 PM.  Much more precipitation will fall in Southeastern MA but temperatures will be close to freezing.  I do fear some power outages as winds gust to 40 in SE MA with a foot of snow.

NWS Snow forecast next 54 hours (image Weatherbell) click to enlarge

Some models have more snow in Worcester County and this seems like it should be an over-preformer given the cold in place in CMass. If that happens we are looking at these numbers.  But remember snow lovers the NWS numbers are more likely.

NWS Boston max potential snow Saturday storm

I'll update in the morning.

-Zack Green

Thursday Headlines

Click to enlarge

Rain in Southern New England Today

Low pressure will advance up the coast as a cold front approaches from the west,  Rain will overspread the region this afternoon and this evening. Some pre frontal showers have broken out ahead of the the main rain shield which will make the back to work/school commute extra special.  Hey at least its not snow or ice as temperatures will max in the upper 30's/low 40's with a 5-10 mph east wind.

General Overview
There are some showers present this morning across Southern New England.  These will end shortly but there will be some pockets of drizzle through the morning.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

North and west of Worcester could see some slick spots this morning as temperatures are right around freezing.  In VT/NH winter headlines have been issued by the Albany and Portland NWS offices.  We do not need headlines in SNE as temps are in the upper 30's in S Central MA/NE MA and near 40 in SE MA/RI.

2 m temps 5 AM (image Weatherbell) click to enlarge

The system is still off the Mid Atlantic coast.  Here is the forecast surface chart/precipitation for 7 AM.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 7 AM 

Short Term Forecast
The rain shield will advance North throughout the morning.  By 2 PM the rain will be through CT and RI and ready to enter MA.  Temperatures hold steady in the mid to upper 30's through early afternoon.

10z HRRR sim radar Tuesday 2 PM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures will rise a bit as the rain arrives thanks to the low center advecting (advection- the transfer or heat or matter by flow of a fluid, especially horizontally in the atmosphere or sea) some warmer air into our region.

NWS Model blend max temps Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

By the evening commute it is pouring.  Welcome back to reality and to 2017 everyone!

10z HRRR simulated radar 6 PM Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

Precipitation begins to pull away around midnight as the low passes through the region,

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 1 AM

Total rain is expected to be 0.5-1" mainly between 2 PM-2 AM.

NWS/WPC precipitation forecast through Wednesday 7 AM (image Weatherbell)

It will take some time for the air mass to change.  The trailing cold front will not exit into the Atlantic until late AM/early PM Wednesday.  Lows tomorrow morning are above freezing so the flash freeze risk is low.  Temperatures rise into the low to mid 40's before the front arrives.  Some snow squalls will accompany the front through Southern New England particularly in late afternoon/early evening.  Temperatures return to winter levels at the end of the week.  Several atmospheric disturbances will rotate through with each disturbance bringing colder air.  Some snow is possible Thursday night into Friday AM but this appears minor as of now.

-Zack Green