Welcome Rain Thursday PM-Saturday AM

A coastal low will develop along a frontal boundary on Thursday.  A developing tropical disturbance in the Bahama's will contribute some moisture into this system.  Rain begins to the west of the region tomorrow and some of these will work into Western New England tomorrow afternoon and evening.  The heaviest rain will fall on Friday when temperatures will be mild (though not like today).  Temperatures return to normal on Saturday as rain tappers but the wind will be breezy (up to 35 MPH).

General Overview
Here is what we expect the surface chart to look at 8 PM tonight.  High pressure is still in control across Southern New England.  Waves of low pressure will ride along the Ohio River producing showers and thunderstorms.

WPC Surface forecast Wed 8 PM

That high will keep temperatures down in the upper 40's tonight in interior Southern New England.  Low's will still be near 50/low 50's in South Coastal New England.

NWS Minimum temps Wed night (image Weatherbell) 

Our next weather system will continue to move east tomorrow.  High pressure will shift offshore and the winds will flip back to the S/SW.  More humid air and cloudy skies will follow.  Temperatures will max in the mid 60's.

NWS maximum temperatures Thursday (image Weatherbell)

Here is the projected surface chart tomorrow afternoon.

WPC Surface forecast Thursday 2 PM

Although this chart shows a chance of rain in Southern New England it should remain to our west.  The whole mess will shift east Thursday PM however so around 8-9 PM most of Southern New England will begin to see showers.  A spot shower or sprinkle is certainly possible from noon on everywhere but afternoon plans should be fine.  The bulk of the moisture moves in Friday AM.

WPC Surface Forecast Friday 8 AM

As of 8 AM Friday there still will be multiple low pressure centers.  During the day Friday this will consolidate into one main center and it will start to strengthen.  By Friday evening it should be over or right near Long Island.

WPC Surface Forecast 8 PM Friday

Complicating matters is a tropical disturbance in the Bahama's.  It may or may not become a named system (it will be Otto) but it will enhance precipitation on Friday.  Here is the the projected 5 day track of the tropical disturbance.

NHC 5 day formation potential/track 

The system is forecast to stay well out to sea but it will increase rainfall potential for Eastern New England.  Here is one high resolution model for Friday night.  If this is correct (and I think it is or I wouldn't show it) a lot of football games will be wet or moved.

18z NAM hires simulated radar Friday 8 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)

We get more rain if the system tracks closer to the coast and the rain would hold on into Saturday.  While I don't think this will happen it is possible.  Most likely a general 1-2" of rain with a few higher amounts is likely before the low pulls away Saturday AM.  Rain will come to an end in the morning and the wind will pick up.  Temperatures are in the upper 50's on Saturday PM but with the wind it will feel brisk.  Flurries overnight Sat into Sun AM?

A return to typical fall weather is in store for next week.

-Zack Green

Summer Like Warmth for SNE

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue through Wednesday before some welcome rain arrives Thursday and Friday.  In several locations across the Northeast temperatures will approach record territory.  This weather pattern has already produced the highest October temperature on record in Dodge City, KS (and numerous other record daily highs).

Why so warm?
At the surface a strong Western Atlantic area of high pressure has lifted the jet stream well above its normal mid October position.  This means most of the Eastern half of the US has south to southwesterly flow.  At the same time in the upper level of the atmosphere a dome of high pressure exists over the Northern Gulf of Mexico pumping warm air into the US.  First the upper air chart

06z NAM 500 mb vort, heights 8 am Tues (image NCEP)

Now here is the surface chart.

WPC surface analysis 2 AM

That boundary in New England will separate warm and cool today.  One side of the boundary is in the 80's while the other side is in the 50's.  This boundary will descend into NE MA this AM before lifting out this afternoon.  This boundary is responsible for the isolated showers that were around earlier this AM.  Skies will clear and winds will be light out of the south today (5-10 MPH).  Here are the forecast max temps

NWS max temp forecast Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

The circled locations will be within 1 degree of a record high.  Here are the records for today and tomorrow in SNE

Southern New England record high temps

A cold front will approach tonight but it will not have much precipitation with it.  Wednesday may be the warmer of the two days but look what is on the way for Thursday.

WPC Surface fronts Thursday 8 AM

Precipitation will linger through Friday evening as low pressure will develop and pull some tropical downpours north.   Saturday will clear and be cooler but there will also be some gusty winds behind Fridays low pressure passage.  I'll post an update tomorrow evening for the Thursday-Sunday forecast.  Enjoy your Tuesday.

-Zack Green

Brrr...Frosty Start to the Day

Light winds, clear skies and a Canadian air mass have combined for the coldest temperatures since spring time across Southern New England.  Frost and freeze advisories were issued last night and will be in place until 9 AM.  The chilly start will give way to afternoon highs in the low 60's.  Temperatures will drop to the upper 30's/low 40's again tonight before rising into the mid to upper 60's on Wednesday.  Some clouds and light rain are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak cold front passes the region.

General Overview
Here are the frost/freeze advisories

NWS Boston Headlines Tuesday 548 AM

These headlines are needed thanks to temperatures region wide in the low to mid 30's (away from the urban and coastal regions).  Although winds are light the direction is out of the north.  So the cape is getting wind off the water which is still near 60 F.

RTMA 2 m max temps 4 AM Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

The surface chart shows high pressure in control over the northeast.  Air rotates clockwise around high pressure which is why the source region is Canada.  The Bruins open up Thursday so a Canadian air mass seems appropriate (especially now that the Sox are done).

WPC Surface Analysis Tuesday 2 AM 

We see a developing cold front across the plains ready to move into the Great Lakes states.  This shows up well on the satellite image this morning.    Note the strong high in Canadian Rockies driving this front into the US.

NOAA GOES_East Rainbow IR satellite (image NCEP/NOAA/NWS)

The impressive storm in the lower right corner of the satellite is Tropical Storm Nicole (soon to be Hurricane Nicole).  She appears to be on a collision course with Bermuda.  The high pressure will protect the northeast from Nicole as he will be forced to the northeast,

The Forecast
Today's high temps which are pretty close to average (+/- 2 in general)

NWS Max temps Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

It is slightly warmer tonight when compared to this morning but some areas will certainly want to keep the heat on especially north and west of the Pike.  Some spots south of the Pike in interior SE MA will also be cold tomorrow AM.

NWS minimum temps Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM (image Weatherbell)

Again temperatures are a few degrees warmer tomorrow.High pressure will slide offshore and our winds will flip around to the south.

NWS maximum temps Wednesday (image Weatherbell)

Thursday will also be mild for mid October as the Great Lakes cold front swings through the region.  Here is the frontal position on Wednesday night at 8 PM.

WPC Surface forecast Wednesday 8 PM

I hope we can squeeze out a few showers from this front but it looks like it will weaken as it approaches the east coast.  The air mass behind the front is also chilly for this weekend.

Have a great day
-Zack Green

Great Fall Weather for SNE, Major Hurricane for Florida

Knowing that many people have family and property in Florida I will continue to cover Matthew even though the storm will remain far to our south.  If it manages to make official landfall then Matthew will be the first major hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma in 2005.  The last category 4 hurricane to hit the US was Charley in 2004.  High pressure is protecting SNE the next few days from Matthew and high temperatures in the 50's so let's talk about that first.

General Overview
The atmosphere has been delivering warm days and cool nights and that will continue through Friday.  Here is the temperatures in the northeast as of 5 AM

RTMA 2 m temps 5 AM Thursday (image Weatherbell)

Here is surface analysis from 5 AM.  See the low pressure system in Saskatchewan/Manitoba in S Canada?  That was the upper system that I thought would pick Matthew up and send it towards New England (either a direct hit or passing south and east and delivering beneficial rain.  The Hurricane moved too slow and the trough is too far north so they will not connect.

WPC Surface Analysis 5 AM Thursday 

Thanks to that dome of high pressure max temperatures today will be in the low 70's with sunny skies.

NWS 2 m max temp forecast Thursday (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight will again drop into the 40's.  High pressure is in control tomorrow so expect temperatures closer to 75 as that cold front approaches for Saturday.  Friday night is mild as clouds begin to increase.  A few showers are possible on Saturday.

WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM

Hurricane Matthew
It's not a pretty scene in the Bahama's this morning.  According to The Weather Channel at least 25 people are dead so far in the Caribbean.  Here are some photo's of the damage in East Cuba that was leveled.

Baracoa, Cuba damage from Matthew (photo- Miami Herland, Ramon Espinosa AP)

Baracoa, Cuba damage from Matthew (photo Miami Herald Ramon Espinosa AP)

This morning the Hurricane is ripping through the Bahama's.  Winds are at 125 mph and central pressure is down to 944 mb.  This makes Matthew a powerful Category 3 (nearly Category 4) hurricane.

NHC Atlantic 5 AM track, warnings, storm information 

While it is important to track the center of the storm because that is where the category 3/4 winds are the overall tropical storm force wind field is large.  The impacts extend a long way out from the center.  Melbourne and Daytona, FL north to Jacksonville should see the strongest winds and storm surge but many others will deal with rain, down trees, power loss and flooding.

NHC Atlantic wind field chart

You can just now see Matthew on radar.  The outer bands are already impacting the east coast of Florida.

NWS Southeast Regional Radar 

Here is the simulated radar for 7 PM tonight.  This looks nasty for the Fort Lauderdale, West Palm, and Port St. Lucie.

08z HRRR simulated radar Thursday 7 PM (image Weatherbell)

The bottom line is Florida is going to take one on the chin and its been many years since people had to deal with a storm like this.

-Zack Green

Major Track Changes for Matthew

Hurricane forecasting for my money is the most difficult branch of meteorology.  It's a lot like golf.  In order to have a good score you need to hit the tee shot long and straight in order to avoid the woods or any bunkers.  Then you have to have a really good approach shot in order to have a shot at the green.  In hurricane forecasting putting is easy; its getting to the green that is hard.  Most forecasters crushed the tee shot all the way into the Bahama's.  My approach shot landed in the bunker.  I thought it would impact the SE US before curving south of New England bringing beneficial rain.  It still may but trend is for Matthew to impact the SE US only before stalling in the SW Atlantic.

General Overview
The damage and causality reports are still coming in from Haiti and Cuba.  The Bahama's are next in the path of Matthew and then Florida.  Here is the new official track.

Hurricane Matthew 5 AM Track, Warnings

This track takes the storm dangerously close to the Florida coast.  High pressure will in New England now appears to suppress the storm south,  It will not link up the cold front, it will not enhance moisture, hell it won't even give us any rain!  Now I will still track the storm but if nothing changes in the model guidance I will return to regular blogs tomorrow.

Land interaction has weakened Matthew as the storm is now a Category 3 hurricane.  On satellite he has lost some the big time thunderstorms.  This is temporary.  As the storm pulls away from Cuba it will either expand its wind field, re-intensify or both.

NOAA/NCEP/NWS Rainbow IR Satellite

The spaghetti models that were over New England yesterday are now hundreds of miles south.

Hurricane model tracks initialized Wednesday 2 AM (image Weatherbell)

No real changes in the GA/SC coast but the storm is much bigger problem for Florida than I thought. The bottom line is do not change any plans for Sunday-Monday.  You'll know if the forecast changes again but as we get closer to the event our computer guidance generally locks onto a solution.  In the short term enjoy some beautiful fall weather through Friday.  Canadian high pressure will keep skies mostly sunny with temps in the low 60's,

WPC Surface Forecast Wednesday 8 AM

 NWS temps

NWS 2 m max temps Wednesday (image Weatherbell)

Temps look to rebound closer to 70 on Thursday and Friday.

-Zack Green

Tuesday AM Hurricane Matthew Update

Hurricane Matthew is gaining strength on its way to a devastating landfall in Haiti and then Eastern Cuba.  The Hurricane will expand its wind field in the Bahama's and it will deliver a strong blow in the SW Atlantic archipelago.  How close the storm bends towards Florida remains to be seen.  From there it sure seems like the storm will be close to the GA/SC coast before making landfall around Wilmington, NC.  Impacts for the northeast are not known at this time but wind and rain on Sunday are looking more and more likely.

General Overview
As of 5 AM here is the satellite image of the storm.

NOAA GOES_EAST infrared satellite Tuesday AM

The storm is so powerful that the eye is a "pinhole".  As of 5 AM the winds are at 145 MPH and pressure is down to 934 mb.  This is a lower pressure then when Matthew was a category 5 on Friday.

NHC Atlantic 5 AM Track, Warnings

  The official track takes the storm very close to the central Florida coast and then near Hilton Head, SC and close to Cape Fear, NC.  Here is the track from all the overnight computer model runs.

06z Tropical Cyclone Tracks (image Weatherbell)

Most guidance has locked onto a close track to the SE US, including the great EURO.  The EURO is further west when compared to yesterday but it remains one of the further east tracks for Southern New England.  These tracks would bring heavy rain to Central and Western SNE with high winds and some coastal flooding in Eastern SNE.  At the upper levels here is the feature to watch.  This map is for Friday at 2 AM.

06z GFS 500 mb heights, vort Friday 2 AM (image NOAA/NCEP/NWS)

At the surface that feature will be a strong cold front.  Here is Friday 8 AM

WPC Surface Forecast Friday 8 AM

The high pressure centered over New England will slide east into the Atlantic allowing Matthew to come north.  Matthew will link up with this front and become more of a nor'easter (but a very powerful one at that thanks to its tropical origins)..  Here is Saturday 8 AM at the upper levels.

06z GFS 500 mb heights, vort Saturday 8 AM (image NOAA/NCEP/NWS)

Here is the surface forecast at the same time.

WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM

It's possible that as this cold front approaches its interaction with Matthew will cause rain Saturday night well before the storm is close to New England.

The Bottom Line
Here is what we know

1. Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahama's will see a Category 4 Hurricane today and tomorrow
2. The SE US will likely go under Hurricane Watch/Warnings today as Matthew will come very close Thursday PM-Saturday AM from Florida to the Carolina's
3. A cold front will bring some rain on Saturday PM/Sunday AM to New England
1. a. How much additional rain/wind will depend on Matthew's track
2. b. Looking like a closer pass so coastal flooding and wind damage are on the table

It looks like a fairly quiet weather week here in New England so meteorologists will spend a lot of time tracking this storm.  I'll post another update Wednesday AM.

-Zack Green

Hurricane Matthew and Southern New England

Hurricane Matthew is a powerful category 4 storm located in the central Caribbean Sea.  Of immediate concern is the impact the storm will have on Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and the Bahama's.  The storm will travel towards the Carolina coast before either continuing towards Cape Cod or stalling and hooking right out to sea.  Ideally we will see little wind but several inches of rain next weekend.

General Overview
Here is the 5 AM advisory for Matthew from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) including forecast track and watches and warnings.

NHC 5 AM Matthew Advisory 

The storm has been a major hurricane since Friday when it became the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007.  The nine year gap between Cat 5's storms followed a active period from 2003-2007 that saw 8 storms reach the top of the scale.

Atlantic Cat 5's since 1995 (via NHC archives)

Here is the storm on satellite this morning.  What stands out to me is the large size of the hurricane.  It will bring 15-25" of rain to parts of Hispaniola.  Haiti does not handle hurricanes well so this will get real ugly.

GOES_East rainbow Infrared Satellite (image NCEP/NOAA/NWS)

Guidance is pretty consistent through Friday with the track of the storm.  It will likely expand its wind field quite a bit as it emerges into the SW Atlantic.  Here are the tracks from 2 AM this AM from a variety of weather models.

2 AM Spaghetti Model Chart (Tropical Tidbits)

So let's pick this up at Saturday.  While a lot can change in 120 hours there is a good agreement that a major hurricane will approach the Carolina coast before moving Northeast.  At what angle it moves remains to be scene.  The EURO hooks the storm to right but then stalls it.  The GFS has a stronger upper level trough moving through the Midwest so it takes the storm to the North Northeast.  Here is the GFS on Saturday at 2 PM.

06z GFS MSLP/radar Saturday 2 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)

In this scenario the Hurricane would combine with a cold front to drop a lot of rain in the northeast with strong winds.  While the wind damage and power outages would be unwelcome the rain would be.

WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM

The EURO solution and the GFS solution are both on the table.  The WPC is blending both as a compromise.  In this scenario we get about an inch of rain and little wind.  My advice is to be ready for hurricane even if odds say it skirts out to sea.  We have 6 days so I'll keep you informed.

As for today some showers are possible this afternoon and high temps are in the upper 60's,  The rest of the weeks looks dry with day time temps in the 60's and lows in the 40's.

-Zack Green