Blackstone Valley Weather Service has returned to the google platform for now. Weather for Southern Worcester County and more by meteorologist Zack Green
Good evening everyone. We have some snow squalls on the way for tomorrow that will drop around an inch of snow for most people. However in isolated areas up to 3-4" cannot be ruled out. Lets review the last storm and talk about the squalls.
Here is the map of the yesterday's storm. I was over by a few inches in most areas. Totals were on the lower end of all scales. At the end of the day the storm was 500 miles away and the locals factors failed to enhance the snow as much as I thought. That said 4-10" from a storm 500 miles away is impressive.
NWS Boston snowfall map 2-8-16 event
3 years ago we were wrapping up one of the all time Southern New England blizzards. The Blizzard of 2013 (or Nemo) was powerful and caused a lot of damage in SE MA due to coastal flooding and wind damage.
Blizzard of 2013 NESIS map
Just last year we also had a Category 1 snowstorm. This one often gets forgotten but this was the storm that really began to bring the region to our knees. The MBTA was dealt a death blow, areas roofs began to collapse and area roads began to be too small to accommodate 2 way traffic. This storm ranks 7th on Boston's all time snowfall's with 23.8".
Blizzard #3 of 2015 NESIS
We aren't getting anything like that tomorrow but this just goes to show early to mid Feb is the "peak" of winter snow season in Southern New England. So here is the radar tonight
Northeast Regional Radar Loop 728 PM
It is NOT impressive and it will not be. But here is the National Weather Service Special Weather Statement
NWS Boston special weather statement
I do buy some action in Western MA and CT maybe to Worcester tomorrow AM. Here is one high resolution model solution for tomorrow AM at the upper levels
23z HRRR 500 mb vort valid 8 am (image NCEP)
Here is the simulated radar
23z HRRR simulated radar 9 AM (image Weatherbell)
No delays, no closings, no early dismissals but just heads up driving to work in he AM. Most people see less than an inch, if anything at all. Some 1-2", even fewer 3-4". I believe the Pioneer Valley and Northern Connecticut between 6-10 AM has the best chance to see higher amounts. This may re-fire further east tomorrow afternoon but that is unlikely.
3 PM Update
The National Weather Service in Taunton has increased their snowfall forecast. This is much more in line with my thoughts from this AM when I held back just a bit.
NWS Boston snowfall forecast 230 PM Sunday through Tuesday 7 AM
I don't have much more to add. Timing, impacts are below. Traveling tomorrow will be difficult, especially south of Boston.
Previous discussion below
For the second year in a row a winter storm will threaten Southern New England the day after the Super Bowl. The storm last year was more of a direct hit and I don't think many people cared after this (video via NFL YouTube channel, have to watch on YouTube). They really should be playing today I hope I win some money today.
The storm last year dropped a widespread 12-18".
Post Super Bowl Storm 2015 via NESIS
I am not expecting a widespread 12-18. That said if someone on the South Coast, Cape, or even Nantucket get a foot I would not be surprised. As of now Winter Storm Watches are posted for much of SE New England with the exception of Southern Rhode Island. They should be added today. Also it is possible (probable?) the second blizzard warning of the season could be posted for the Cape and Islands later today.
NWS Boston Sunday AM advisories
I'll get into the start/end times, the winds, and some coastal concerns in a moment. First lets look at what the storm is doing right now. Here is the water vapor satellite image. The storm is intensifying as it feeds off the warm gulf stream
NOAA GOES_East water vapor satellite
Here is the surface chart
WPC surface analysis 7 AM
At this point it appears the storm will track safely south and east of Southern New England. That said check out the wind field in the storm
12z NAM hires 900 mb winds 6 am Monday (image Weatherbell)
These winds are a few hundred feet up in the atmosphere. So lets take a closer look at near surface winds 8 AM Momday
12z NAM hires 10 m winds 8 AM Monday (image weatherbell)
With these winds east and northeast facing beaches will be vulnerable for minor to moderate coastal flooding. Here is a list of beaches/harbors that may see flooding tomorrow during the late AM/early PM high tide. We must be thankful this storm is well offshore. Here is the forecast surface chart tomorrow morning.
WPC surface forecast Monday 7 AM
So why would we get plowable snow with a storm so far offshore? Well first of all remember the large wind field. The storm is massive. Second see the cold front south of New England? As that front moves through overnight it will bring a fresh shot of Arctic air with it. By 1 PM temperatures inland are in the low 20's.
12z NAM hires 2 m temps 1 PM Monday (image Weatherbell)
Ocean temperatures are running around 40-41.
OSTIA Sea Surface Temps (C) (Image Weatherbell)
Why does this matter? That is huge difference between air and ocean temperatures. There is also a lot of energy with the storm. As a result the snow shield is pushed well inland. Now let's time it out. Snow begins to fly at the South Coast around 4 AM. It gets to the Mass Pike around 7 AM. The snow makes it Western expansion between 7-10 AM and most of Southern New England (including Southern NH and coastal Maine) is snowing at varying intensities at noon.
12z NAM hires simulated radar 12 PM Monday (image Weatherbell)
Snow collapses in Western MA/CT mid afternoon and in Central MA/RI in the evening. Snow lingers in E MA until 8-9 PM. Snow ratios will vary big time from Central MA down to the South Coast. Given temps a 15-1 or 20-1 ratio is likely in interior SE New England. Given the warmer ocean 10-1 is a better bet across the Cape. So what does that mean for totals? There is some guidance that holds back on the precipitation so I am going to respect that. That said I think I am selling this system short a bit.
Snowcast for Monday
Probably some higher amounts in Maine but that isn't really my focus so check out weather.gov for more info on northern areas. Questions, comments, concerns please reach out. Enjoy the game tonight.
(Note- I will begin to use the Weather Channel winter storm names. The National Weather Service's official position is opposition to these names. However they are growing in popularity and I find them useful.)
Winter Storm Lexi arrived yesterday and left its mark on Southern New England. Tragically a 6 year old girl from Canton died when a tree limb fell on her while playing outside. May you rest in peace Kaleigh Kenyon. Tree limbs also fell on power lines and left nearly 180,000 customers without power at the height of the storm. In eastern MA there are still about 50K customers without power. In Rhode Island it looks like there are approximately 10-15K still in the dark.
MEMA power outages for MA
I don't have a snow total map yet but the highest total in MA was Worcester airport with 12.5". In CT the big winner with 13" is Staffordville. In Rhode Island Burrillville checked in with 12". I am content with my snow map but I would have really nailed it if I made my 5-9" band a 8-12" band as a lot of places came in around 9. 10". See the full list here for yourself.
NWS Boston seasonal snow round up post storm
So what is next? First off today is pretty seasonable for February. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30's with mostly sunny skies giving way to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. This will allow for some melting. The temperatures drop back into the 20's tonight allowing for a refreeze. Sunday is similar but a tad warmer and less clouds. Now we turn to Monday. Given this is a complex set up let me try and set the table.
First here is the upper air pattern this morning at 7 AM
12z NAM 500 mb vort 7 am (image NCEP)
First that jumps out is the complex in the southern plains ready to eject into the Southeastern states. By tomorrow AM a storm system will develop in the Southwest Atlantic.
WPC surface forecast Sunday 7 AM
While we watch the Panthers pound the Broncos (but hopefully by less than 7) the upper air pattern will evolve to this. One does not need to be a weather enthusiast to see the strength of this upper level low. The low is closed and feeding off the gulf stream.
12z NAM 500 mb vort Sunday 7 PM (image NCEP)
This should continue right up the coast right? Well not exactly. The potential Tuesday system (more on that later) is moving out of the northern branch of the jet stream and could shunt this storm further east. The overnight computer guidance largely favors that solution. The problem is the stakes are high. If the storm moves 50 miles north and west look what we get.
Temperatures inland will be much colder on Monday so at least we would not have to deal with the cement that fell yesterday. But in turn snow ratios are higher and more snow falls. For example here is Monday at the same time as the image above (1 PM Monday)
12z NAM Hires 2 m temps 1 PM Monday (image weatherbell)
Snow would likely start around or just after the AM commute Monday. As of now Tuesday is complicated. It depends on what storm number 1 does. I feel that the threat from Monday is much greater than Tuesday. So as of now here is my snow map.
Zack Green snowfall impact map Monday
I have to buy the potential of this. So far this winter guidance has tended to bring storms further north and west as we got closer to the event. Despite the long standing bias against the NAM it has done well this winter. I may post tonight but if not I will have a Sunday AM update. I'll try and figure out the mes of Tuesday today but as for now that appears to have much less potential than Monday. The next winter storm name is Mars. Less sexy than Lexi if you ask me.
Questions, comments, concerns, complaints on my facebook page or @zgreenwx on twitter.
Good Morning everybody. I am happy for the school cancellations. I did not want to upset the teachers I promised a snow day. Let's look at the current conditions and project the rest of the storm.
The winter storm warning remains in effect until 3 PM. It has actually expanded north in Southern New Hampshire and into Southern RI
NWS Boston watches and warnings
First lets look at the water vapor satellite loop. See how the moisture source extends to the Gulf of Mexico all the way into New England.
GOES_east water vapor loop 815 AM
The northeast regional radar shows a lot of precipitation
NWS Northeast regional radar 818 AM
Low pressure has formed along the stalled front offshore
WPC surface analysis 7 AM
The elongated S shape of the cold front is a classic snow signature for New England. We would be looking at a lot more snow if the stalled boundary in Northern New England was not present. Look at the temperatures
7 AM 2 m RTMA temps (image weatherbell)
Temperatures in Southern New England are marginal for snow. Last year when it was so cold the snow was fluffy and it piled up quickly. This snow will be wet and heavy. Some colder air is moving into Worcester County so the snow will be slightly lighter there. So let us time this out.
Some light snow will still be around Worcester until 4-5 PM but still going strong in Eastern New England.
13z HRRR simulated radar 6 PM (image weatherbell)
So lets say another 4-7 inches of snow in addition to what is already on the ground in purple/pink below. This model assumes a 10.1 liquid to snow ratio. I think that is too high given the heavy nature of the snow so I will cut these a bit
Change over from snow to rain begins around 3 AM from west to east. This is a not a cold system so it will be interesting to watch the rain snow line.
Previous discussion below.
Living in New England means many things including the Jekyll and Hyde nature of our weather. Take this week for example. Temperatures have been in the 50's and 60's. Last night some folks lost power as heavy rain and roaring winds took down tree branches. Tomorrow we see snow! The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a winter storm watch late tonight into tomorrow afternoon.
NWS Boston hazards
Currently a cold front is draped right across New England.
WPC surface analysis 7 AM
The true Arctic air is locked away behind the cold front in Ontario but it will cool off tonight. As of 10 AM the New England temps look like this.
RTMA 2 m temps 10 AM (image weatherbell)
The upper air shows southwest flow aloft which explains the mild weather this week
12z NAM 500 mb vort 7 AM (image NCEP)
But see that mess in the Central US? It will consolidate and add energy to the cold front which will stall offshore. The ridge in the Atlantic will strengthen and force the trough to take on a negative tilt.
12z NAM 500 mb vort valid 4 AM Friday (image NCEP)
A low will form offshore and move up the coast throwing moisture back along the I-95 corridor. In Southern New England a dusting to an inch is likely all the way to I-91/84 with heavier snows south of the MA Pike and inside 495.
WPC surface forecast 7 AM Friday
The latest trends have been for more moisture and the precipitation is moving further west. So more snow? Well not so fast. The latest trends have been warmer. The upper level support is strong so that should allow for a heavy thump of snow. That will allow for snow to accumulate. But it will be heavy and moisture laden. It will not be a fluff bomb. The Outer Cape and Islands can look for a lot of rain with this system. Here is my snowcast
Snowcast for Friday
To my friends who are educator's I would expect no school in the 3-5 and 5-9 bands. The precipitation will begin as warm but switch to snow around 3-4 AM. The AM commute will stink. It wraps up early afternoon Friday. If you need more specific information please ask.
I'll watch the trends and update again tonight if/when the Winter Storm Watches become a warning.
I am on record calling the storm off yesterday. I still believe it is a non event for most of the region but perhaps I was a bit premature in saying just a few flakes here and there. In fact the South Coast of CT, RI, MA (including Cape and Islands) may see a significant event. It will be still be hard to get much north of the Pike. But I can already feel the egg white starting to hit my face.
Me Looking at the data this AM
Here are the National Weather Service watches and warnings for Southern New England this afternoon. The Vineyard is under a Blizzard Warning!
NWS Boston Afternoon watches and warnings
A winter storm warning has been posted in pink. Although we are missing out on 95% of the storm it is still very impressive. Here is the NWS snowfall forecast for the Northeast US
NDFD NWS snowfall forecasts through Sunday 1 PM
This is pretty wild and will likely crack the top 15 snowstorms of all time when accounting for population and snow totals. The storm is a beauty on satellite
GOES_East water vapor loop valid 815 AM (image NOAA)
The radar as of 4 PM
NWS Northeast regional radar loop
High pressure and dry air stops this beast from making a ton of noise in New England. But it does look like the South Coast is going to get rocked. I was wrong to write this baby off completely yesterday. Weather is humbling. So the snow will start to fly around noon time South to North.
My forecast
I think a lot of places along the south coast see around 7-8 inches. I'll update again tomorrow AM.
UPDATE- I am leaving this post. One must take the good and the bad in forecasting. Below is my apology to my facebook friends.
Feb 2010- predict 8-12 we get 0. Jan 2016 predict 0 we get 6". 2 of my
worst forecasts ever. I'll be better Facebook friends who read my
weather posts. Sorry about this one I messed up.
Enjoy the weekend New England- no storm for us. A few flakes at the coast but put the plows away. Most of the energy will transfer to a secondary low well out to sea. Likely wind advisory criteria on the Cape and Islands Sunday with blustery conditions for the rest of Southern New England. There are still high tides astronomically this weekend so some minor coastal flooding is possible in flood prone areas.
